Cross flags on the season are in the air and we are gearing up for the second half of the 2017 Monster Energy Cup season. The DFSArmy is coming off their most profitable NASCAR weekend EVER and I really couldn’t be prouder of this team.
This week we head to Kentucky and we are going to make it two in a row for the army. To be apart of it, make sure you check back this Friday for Taco’s Fast 40 Podcast, and The Sway Bar article on Saturday. Until then think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. To start the week off, let’s take a look a Kentucky Speedway.
Track/Race Length: 1.5 mile oval, 267 laps, 400 miles
Stages: 1st ends lap 80; 2nd ends lap 160; final/race ends lap 267 (unless overtime)
Banking in turns 1-4: 14 degrees
Banking in tri-oval: 10 degrees
Banking on backstretch: 4 degrees
Length of frontstretch: 1,662 feet
Length of backstretch: 1,600 feet
Length of short chute from start/finish to Turn 1: 681 feet
Length of apex of tri-oval at the start/finish Line: 300 feet
Length of short chute from Turn 4 to start/finish: 681 feet
Pit Road Speed: 45 mph
Kentucky is kind of a unique 1.5 miler, as it features very flat corners at only 14 – 17 degrees. The track was reconfigured last year, so make sure you keep that in mind when doing your research. Oh – also consider that only three drivers have ever won here.
So to start, lets take a little peek-a-roo at last years Kentucky race, which was run with the 2017 aero package.
So some weird things happened this race. First of all, the top two started ended up in the optimal, which is kind of unusual. Second, though Harvick led the most laps and Truex had the most fast laps, which is strange. And third, despite Truex and Harvick dominating – Keselowski found a way to keep the All-Time winners to three. Alas, we move forward. I think its save to say we can move back to our traditional 2-3 dominators this week, paired with 2 place differential plays, and a value play (shoutout Josh Wise in the optimal last year).
Next, I am going to take you through some historical stuff, but keep in mind – last year was the first race since the reconfigure, so take with a grain of salt.
Imagine that, Kyle Busch is a straight stud at Kentucky. Like – crazy good. Granted, he struggled on the reconfigured surface last year, but that was anomaly. Kyle Busch has been knocking on victories door all season and this weekend will be his best shot all year. In the same breath, Kenseth will also be a valuable play this weekend. Joe Gibbs as an organization has been gaining speed week by week and the sneaky benefactor has been Kenseth – whose finishes have been progressively improving. I don’t think Kenseth in a dominator candidate, but he could be a good place differential play.
Obviously, Truex Jr, Harvick and Keselowski are going to be studs this weekend too. It will be important to keep and eye on practice to see which brings the most speed. If I had to make an early guess, Truex has just been unstoppable recently and that should continue.
No we move to green flag passes, which can be a valuable indicator for possible place differential candidates. I think the standout here is the two Hendrick cars in Kahne and Earnhardt Jr. Both drivers have had a miserable 2017 and will be underpriced and overlooked. Heres the thing – as bad as the two have been, they are still good drivers in good equipment. Paired with a wealth of statistics that seem to suggest they are candidates to fit our strategy, I think keeping an eye on them will be valuable come Saturday. I also like Newman and Menard out of the RCR stable this weekend, especially Newman who is a top 15 staple at Kentucky.
Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez are also going to worth a look this weekend. This is one of the few tracks where the other drivers will have a huge advantage in terms of track knowledge, since both Jones and Suarez have been involved in NASCAR almost as long as Kentucky has been on the circuit.
So in conclusion – we are looking for 2-3 dominators. The likely candidates are Kyle Busch, Keselowski, Truex, and Harvick. We also need 2-3 place differential drivers of which Kahne, Earnhardt Jr, Newman, Menard, Jones and Suarez are candidates. We may also need a value play, which we will do a deep dive for during The Sway Bar on Saturday!
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