Right turns are back on the menu! Whew what a week it’s going to be in wine country. To start, make sure you check you my primer article “The Competition Caution” . As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
I am not going to categorize drivers this week, just highlight drivers I think can perform from a DFS perspective. There are so so so many strategies you could employ this weekend, but at the end of the day you need to identify one and stick to it. I am attacking this slate like a restrictor plate, meaning I will focus on place differential. I think the field is going to flip after stage one. Everyone in the top 12 will run the full first segment, where everyone else will pit right before the stage ends, and lead at the start of stage 2. Dominator points are going to be so hard to anticipate outside of the first stage, so we turn to the devil we know instead of the devil we don’t.
Jimmie Johnson – With the disappearance of Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards – Jimmie Johnson is about all we have left when it comes to “classic Sonoma pros”. Since 2007, Jimmie Johnson has finished no worse than 15th at Sonoma, if you count that against his 24th starting spot, while its kind of a no brainier. I expect Jimmie will get tricky with the strategy and be there at the end. IF I had to call a favorite play this week, Jimmie would be it.
Matt Kenseth – Well color me shocked. I never would have guessed Kenseth would be fantasy relevant this week. Look, Kenseth is no very good at Sonoma, so much so that he is priced under $8000 this week. That is lower than Billy Johnson – who has never even stepped in a Cup car before this weekend. BUT – Kenseth decided not to take a qualifying lap and will start dead last. With no downside, it will be hard to avoid Kenseth in your line up this weekend. I expect Jason Radcliffe at the 20 team have something up there sleeve this weekend, and I am not going to be on the outside looking in.
Kasey Kahne – Kasey hasen’t shown any speed this weekend, but does he ever? Kasey is sneaky good at Sonoma, boasting a average running position of about 12th, which is among the highest in the field. Count that agaisnt a 21st starting spot and Kasey Kahne could easily work his way into the optimal this weekend.
Kurt Busch – Kurt is one of the best we’ve got left at Sonoma and Draftkings apparently recognizes that, as they priced him at a hefty $9800. It’s still well worth it though, considering he rolls off 17th. He has shown speed this weekend, but more importantly, he knows how to RACE at Sonoma as well as anyone. He should be one of those guys that finds there way toward the front by the start of Segment two. He serves as a good handcuff OR pivot off Jimmie Johnson.
Joey Logano – Ever since 2014, Joey has become THE guy on road courses. His finishes at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen have been dynamite and Draftkings haven’t caught on yet, hitting him with a $9000 price tag. He starts 18th, which allows us to use him as a place differential play, but I think he has a chance to dominate. Another guy that serves as a handcuff or a pivot to Jimmie.
Ryan Newman – Even at a road course Newman finds his way into the article! Newman is good at Sonoma for one reason – he is IMPOSSIBLE to pass at an already impossible to pass race track. He starts 20th and barring some goofy stuff he won’t far much below that and could easily move further. He has an average running position of 14.5 which is more than enough to inspire confidence this weekend.
Ty Dillon – Ty has shown some real prowess at road courses in the xFinity series, but he is making his Sonoma debut this weekend. He hasn’t shown me anything to inspire confidence outside of his 35th place starting spot. We all know how well Ty can survive and that’s really all we need him to do. Only a good place from a “war of attrition” perspective.
Boris Said – oooooooooooo I can’t believe I get to talk about Boris. Look, these last drivers are kind of “best of the worst option”. Boris starts 34th with 34th place equipment and top five talent and experience. He has run more races here than probably anyone in the field, it’s just a matter of whether his equipment can keep up. I have Boris pegged for around a 25th place finish, which is good enough for his $5100. Play with caution, but he’s the best option at this price range.
Alon Day – Full disclosure: I probably won’t play Alon Day much, as it’s his first time in the Cup car. BUT he has shown some measurable speed this weekend. Regardless, it’s a whole different ball game on race day and I don’t know if Day can play ball. This is a worst case scenario type of play.
Now the elephant in the room – who will be that stage one dominator. I feel pretty confident that either Larson, Truex or Kyle Busch will end up in the optimal, with a smaller nod to Allmendinger. Having one of those four guys in most lineups would probably be a good idea.
So there it is folks. Those are my favorite play this weekend. If your looking for other guys to give exposure to I don’t mind Bowyer or Keselowski, but both have there issues in terms of starting spot and ability, respectively. Keep an eye on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.
