Oh boy. This is gonna be a crazy week. This will probably be the most useless article all year, because it’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
So this week is going to be a little different. Plate races kind of turn traditional strategy on it’s head for a couple different reasons:
- Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
- There is only 188 laps. Meaning we only have 47 laps led points to give out, and depending on how cautions come probably only 70 fast lap points. This puts a premium on on place differential.
- It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. In the last three Talladega races, the average starting position of drivers in the optimal lineup is 24.16. On top of that, in the last 8 races only once has a single driver led 100+ laps. This mean statistically, one dominator at most is the way to run this week, I THINK.
Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – Dega has a DNF rate of 21%. Meaning every driver in the field this Sunday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile, and you should be super certain to play within your limits this week. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, I am going to give you my thoughts on each driver starting outside the top 20, and allow you to create a strategy with that in mind. Bolded drivers are drivers I consider top plays.
Newman – The Rocketman certainly has a nose for fastlaps here, averaging nearly 6 a race since 2013. However, his driver rating at Dega is a miserable 60.2. Newman is a great driver, but I don’t trust him to be a world beater this weekend.
Larson – A self described plate race hater, Larson changed his fortunes this year at Daytona. He boasts an average running position of 13.8, which is admirable, but he has never really closed it out – save for last year where he brought it home sixth. I don’t mind Larson this week, but I think he will go a bit chalky given his low price and starting spot.
Almirola – Aric is a certified plate track ace. Of his four wins in the top two national series, three of them have been on plate tracks. He’s got some swagger after winning the xFinity race on Saturday, but his upside over the last two years at Dega is just 8th. That’s not good enough to win a GPP, but I still think he’s a decent play.
McMurray – Boom or bust here. I hate playing Big Mac on plate tracks because he is SO aggressive. He either finishes in the top ten, or wrecks half the field. I will play him because he is great value starting 23rd, but do so with caution.
McDowell – Top 15 upside, with maybe a small chance to sneak into the top ten if things get weird. He does boast an above average driver rating and average running position compared to drivers in his price range. Mcdowell is worth a look this week, but I wish he was starting a bit further down.
Cassill – Same as McDowell.
DiBenedetto – I like Dibenedetto. I really do. But Bobby Labonte drove this car in the last eight plate races and could only manage a best of 19th. As ever, Dega is weird and weird stuff can happen, but I don’t love Dibenedetto here.
Allmendinger – Dinger has a miserable driver rating at Dega, and a average running position on 26.8 – but he’s a survivor. He has a way of finding his way to the end of the race and eeking out a top 15. By no means a safe play, but a worth a look.
Ty Dillon – Dillon doesn’t have any history at Dega in the Cup series, but boasts an average finish of 16.5m which doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. That said, mostly everyone from this point on is worth exposure, and Dillon is no exception.
Ragan – Since his 2013 win, Ragan has struggled a bit at Dega. He brought it home 24th last fall, but it wasn’t enough for him to get into the optimal. He’s a smart race car driver who can survive though. Not my favorite play by any means, but a guy I will continue to monitor.
Johnson – Chalk of the week. An easy play. Be careful being too aggressive when trying to go overweight on him, he carries the same one in five chance of DNFing as everyone else.
Patrick – Danica has a really palatable driver rating when it comes to plate races, and an average running position of 18.9, which is noticeably higher than anyone else in this price range. She has been kept out of the top 20 recently, but she doesn’t have to do much for us to hit the cash line. I think she has legitimate top 15 upside if she can keep her nose clean, which is a big if. A risky play for sure, but a GPP winner potentially.
Gaughan – Gaughan brought this car home 11th at Daytona earlier this year, and I don’t know if that was an outlier or that car really does have speed. What I do know is that Gaughan is a good driver, but has a bit of a habit of finding trouble, especially on plate tracks. Don’t fade him by any means, but do some research to determine how competitive he can be.
Sorenson – In kind of the same boat as Gaughan. Michael Waltrip brought this car home eighth at Daytona. It’s hard to says if A) that was an outlier and B) Sorenson has the same plate track prowess as Mickey (spoiler: probably not). Give him some looks this week for sure, though.
Buescher – Bueschers average running position is a full ten spots higher than his 34th starting spot, and that is all in worse equipment than he has now. I am happily and confidently giving Chris a lot of exposure this week.
Sadler – Sadler drove this car home 20th at Daytona, and he is way better than his equipment. Tommy Baldwin Racing is good enough to at least finish this race (this car finished 8th in the Daytona 500 in 2016). Give Sadler a little love this week,
LaJoie – Lajoie has struggled this year, but we know for sure that this BK Racing car can atleast complete all 188 laps, which is enough to give him exposure. He doesn’t have super high upside, barring some stupidity, but I think he can get a top 25.
Gaulding – This is Gaulding`s first plate track race in the top three series EVER. That scares me off him big time. Play with caution, if at all.
Whitt – WTF Cole Whitt why are you so good at finishing well at Dega? I’ll have lots of exposure to Whitt, but he will probably be chalky. If Cole finishes, its gonna be in the top 20 and could easily be in the top 15.
Gase – A hard sell for me. He is in the same equipment that Waltrip drove home eighth at Daytona – that said, this is likely the B squad of Premium Motorsports. He will struggle to keep up and has a very very small chance of being in the optimal. But, a few big crashes avoided and he hits value. Play, but with caution.
Earnhardt – Boy wouldn’t NASCAR love if another Earnhardt could make a splash at Dega. This car is going to attempt to run all 188 laps, and he can only improve his position. He finished 26th at Daytona this year, and 34th at Dega last year. Give Jeffy a look, won’t ya?
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.
