Order some Dominoes, crack your beer and put the kids to bed – we are going racing under the lights in about 12 hours time! I have been living large this week after a huge week at Talladega, and need to keep it going. This week we head to a much calmer track in Kansas, where we expect to see a little bit of follow the leader. For more on that make sure you check you my Wednesday article “The Competition Caution” and the podcast we dropped this morning – “Tacos Fast 40”. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
So we have put out a lot of content so I will be brief strategy-wise, but the optimal strategy is pretty clear. We have 5 real solid contenders that didn’t take qualifying times, and will be starting in or around the 30s. Its gonna be pretty paramount to get atleast a few of those folks in your line up, along with one or two dominators starting towards the front, so let’s look at who stands to be that dominator.
Top Plays
Johnson, Jones, Bowyer, Kahne, and JR. – These guys are all great plays based solely on their starting spot. I think Johnson is probably the only one with a real legitimate chance to win, but I can see paths to a top ten for all five. These guys will all be very chalky, so you should craft some sort of strategy with them to differentiate yourself – whether it be fading one or two, or maxing one.
Joey Logano – Starting 2nd behind his teammate doesn’t bode well for Joey to get the lead of the start, but I dont think that means he will stay in second for long. Joey has a lights-out track record at Kansas, and has shown real prowess at the 1.5 milers so far this year. He has a real shot to win, and I think he has a great chance to get the lead early – and hold it.
Martin Truex Jr. – You can pretty much echo everything I just said about Joey for Martin Truex Jr., save for the lights out track record. Truex has had success at Kansas in the past, but has seemed to struggle to finish in the top ten latley. Regardless, his stellar 1.5 mile record in 2017, along with his top-5 across the board practice time is enough to love Truex this week. Honestly, I think it is a coin flip between he and Logano for most likely dominator.
Kevin Harvick – Harvick is another guy that the stars are aligning for this week. He boasts and incomprehensible 123.8 driver rating since 2013 at Kansas, paired with pure dominance on 1.5 milers so far this year (he’s led 369 laps!!). He won the last race at Kansas, though granted it was a day race. He is also starting in kind of the DFS dead zone of 6-10th, though. Regardless, I think if anyway can buck that trend it’s Harvick, who could make a valuable pivot off the chalky top 3.
Brad Keselowski – Anytime Brad K. is starting as poorly as 17th, it’s worth a look. Even moreso considering Jimmie Johnson is starting even lower, which could make Brad go overlooked. Much like Harvick, I think Brad K. is a great pivot off the chalk this week. Be careful though, he doesn’t have a real impressive record at Kansas with just a 13.8 average running position.
Fades
Off all the guys starting in the top five, I am happiest to overlook Stenhouse – who comes into this race with a lot of hype. Starting 4th, he almost has to lead some laps to be valuable and there is just to many heavy hitters in this race for him to get it done. I think Kurt Busch is a safe fade too.
Values
Ryan Newman – Surprise, surprise! Newman is back in the best value plays section. Newman has a really killer track record for someone priced at $7600. He carries an average running position of 14.1 at Kansas, and hasn’t finished outside the top 12 since 2014. He’s another guy that could go overlooked considering the bees nest back in the 30s.
AJ Allmendinger – This is a longshot GPP value play because Dinger has been really poor at 1.5 milers so far this year. But he has an inspiring track record at Kansas, so it’s enough for me to give him a look. He should be pretty low owned so going over on him wont be hard.
Other than that, Kahne and Jones both qualify as a value play. This is going to be a real chalky week all together, so do your best to find ways off the chalk. And yes, I know I didn’t mention Ryan Blaney. I encourage you to skip to about 20 minutes in the podcast. Blaney is in a weird spot this week, and Taco and I do our best to vocalize our opinions on him.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.
