I don’t know about you guys, but I am excited to get back to “a real racetrack”. We had a great Talladega, but I am stoked to rely on research more than general strategy this week. Make sure you check back all week for Taco’s Fast 40 Podcast on Friday, and The Sway Bar article on Saturday. Until then think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. To start the week off, let’s take a look a Kansas Speedway
Track Specifications:
Superspeedway: 1.5-mile quad-oval
Track/Race Length: 1.5-mile D-shaped oval, 267 laps, 400.5 miles
Banking in turns…variable (17-20 degrees); previous banking: 15 degrees
Banking on front stretch… 10 degrees; previous banking: 10.4 degrees
Banking on back stretch… 5.5 degrees; previous banking: 5 degrees
Straights: front stretch – 2,721 feet; Backstretch – 2,207 feet
Asphalt surface is 55-feet wide
Repaved & Reconfigured: Summer 2012
Opened: 2001
I want to start by looking at last springs Kansas race, where they Toyotas brought the heat. Now keep in mind this was smack dab in the middle of Toyotas 2016 dominance, so take these results with a grain of salt. In this race we had one dominator, one semi-dominator who won the race, and four pure differential plays.
Now looking at the fall race, you can see that the laps led were a little more spread out, and the dominance was shared among the Toyotas and Chevs. Now keep in mind, this was a day race. This means the track is hotter, slicker and conducive to more passing. While I do believe this weekend’s race will be more competitive than last springs, I don’t think it figures to be as competitive as last falls. I anticipate there will be two dominators, one semi dominator and three differential plays, one or two of which will be starting in the 30s and finishing in the high teens or low 20s.
Note that this track was repaved in 2012, meaning the track will not wear on tires are much as some other tracks. This shifts some on the importance from ten lap average to single lap average. Obviously, we can’t dig into those stats yet, so let’s just with one of my favorite stats – quality passes.
One thing that jumps out right away is that the top six cars are traditionally Chevrolet drivers (even though a couple drive Fords now). This implies thats Chev tends to bring very maneuverable race cars that handle well, and allow the drivers to make passes. Make a note that any Chev drivers have the potential to be fantastic differential plays.
So so far we know we are looking for 2-3 dominators, 2 differential plays (which we will look at on Saturday) and one value play. Let’s take a look at some potential dominators:
Now Matt Kenseth seems to be struggling this year, and considering him a dominator at this point in his poor season would be ill-advised. Next on the list of Jimmie Johnson, who as well as he has run this season, has not been a dominator. That brings us to the three most likely candidates in my opinion:
Truex Jr. – Truex has been one of the best on 1.5 milers so far this year, with an average finish of 5.6 and leading the most laps on the way to winning at Las Vegas. He boasts the third best driver rating at Kansas, and and average running position of 12.4. If the FRR team brings some speed this weekend, Truex is poised to have a terrific run.
Harvick – A crash at Las Vegas compromises Harvicks 2017 1.5 mile stats, but he has certainly be competitive. He led the most laps at Atlanta, and bought it home 4th at Texas. His driver rating is the second best at Kansas, and to be honest – Rodney Childers has a knack for bringing the heat at Kansas.
Logano – Logano is playing second fiddle to Brad K this year, but don’t let that fool you. Joey is an elite driver and has two wins at Kansas. Joey has an average finish of 4.3 on the 1.5 mile tracks in 2017, and has competed for wins almost every week. Outside of his wins, his stats at Kansas don’t inspire a TON of confidence, but given the speed in the Penske camp so far – it is worth keep an eye on Joey.
For value plays, I have my eye on Stenhouse JR, the Dillon Bro’s, Paul Menard, and AJ Allmendinger – who all boasts eye catching numbers at Kansas. We will talk more about value on Taco’s Fast 40 and The Sway Bar.
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