Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy! After a very interesting qualifying session, we are poised for a great week of NASCAR DFS. The DFS Army showed up in droves at the top of the leaderboard last week, and I am looking forward to more of the same this week. We have a group of REALLY strong drivers starting in the 15-20th range that is going to provide a tremendous opportunity to attack differential points – or if it suits your fancy, a tremendous opportunity to fade some really chalky drivers. My thoughts on this race have been super fluid, and it shows with how jumbled this article is. My research is not done at time of publishing. It would be a good idea to get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
I want to start out by digging into the Las Vegas Race in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016…because they all played out really different. Let’s start with 2016.
So in this race, we had two clear dominators (Logano and Johnson), a really solid place differential play (Ky. Busch), and a couple of young, low priced drivers that eeked out solid finishes (Dillon and Blaney). Now lets look at 2015.
I am sure this is a really familiar picture for most of you. Kevin Harvick was a MACHINE at this race in 2015. He started way back in 18th, made his way up front and led over half the laps. We also had solid showings from Jimmie Johnson – who ultimately had issues – and Joey Logano, who faded towards the end of the race. Lastly, let’s go all the way back to 2014.
In 2014, we had five drivers sharing the bulk of the dominator points, a couple solid place differential plays, and a couple really stellar value plays. The point I am trying to make is that the Las Vegas race tends to be quite unpredictable in terms of which drivers will dominate. Will we have one dominator like 2015, two like 2016, or five like 2014? Hard to say, so our lineups need to reflect that.
Another note to make based of this information is the fact the the pole winner has only led 9% of the laps at this track over the last three years. In fact, a lot of the dominators in the past have started outside of the top ten. With that in mind, this year’s pole winner has won the race 2 of the last 3 years. But more on that later.
Right now I want to focus on finding our potential dominators. If we go by the historical numbers – Jimmie Johnson (starting 16th), Kevin Harvick (starting 19th), Kyle Busch (starting 9th) and Joey Logano (starting 6th) are the likely suspects.
Historical stats are valuable, but what’s even more valuable is 10-Lap averages in final practice. If you go back and look at the three races we investigated earlier, all the dominators have impressive 10-lap averages in the final practice of the weekend. This is true of almost any 1.5 mile track. So make sure you dig into the final practice numbers.
Top Plays
I’m going to ignore that 15 – 20th place bees nest, because those guys are all good plays. I want to focus on some guys I think will compete for the win and set aside the DFS implications.
Brad Keselowski – Kes is a great finisher at Vegas, but has never really showed a propensity to dominate here. Couple that with the pole sitters tendency NOT to dominate this race, we are left with a lot of question marks. That said, he is starting up front and has top 5 single lap speed, and the best 10-lap speed (along with his teammate Ryan Blaney). I love Keselowski as a cash game play because I think he will start and finish in the top 5, and collect a few fast laps and laps led. I do NOT like playing him without another dominator. If you want to pivot off him, Truex JR had near identical stats in final practice, and very similar historical stats at Vegas.
Kyle Busch – Meet my pick to win! Bold, I know! Kyle Busch has not shown up on the practice sheets this weekend, but his history at Las Vegas is too much to ignore. He has a 9.6 avg running position and what do you know – he is starting ninth. He was the fastest car on the track towards the end of the final practice and I think he will parlay that into a fast start to tomorrow’s race. It will be a hard task to find any laps led during segment one, but I think he will steal a lot of fast laps, and then being a top 2 staple from segment two forward.
Chase Elliott – Chase Elliott has the best car at the track this weekend and starting in 12th gives him some opportunity to get some differential points. Chase Elliott is 100 percent going to win a race in the next handful of races, and showing up with a fast car is a good start. I don’t like leaning on any young drivers to dominate, though. It takes experience to lead the field, and it’s easy to make mistakes. That said, I like Chase to compete for a win without leading a whole ton of laps. I will be stacking him with someone in that 15-20 bees nest.
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth has an unbelievable knack for ending up in the top five at the end of the day, and starting in the top 5 only helps that trend. Starting 4th is a bit of hindrance, but his single lap speed is notable, and he was quick towards the end of final practice. I won’t have a majority exposure to Matt, but he is a great pivot off those front two drivers. He has potential to dominate and should almost certainly compete for a win.
Fades
If you are a fan of my articles, you probably know I hate suggesting fades because NASCAR is so volatile. I hate it even moreso this weekend because of the chalky mess starting between 15th-20th. I think all those guys can be faded, but I dont think you can fade them all…does that make sense? I don’t know. Follow YOUR process when it comes to fading this week.
I will point out that though it is his home track, Kurt Busch has a very poor track record here as of late – but again, he’s starting 17th and will go underowned.
Values
The chalk value play this weekend will be Ricky Stenhouse Jr. solely based on is horrible 29th place starting spot, and his attractive $6,500 price tag. To hit optimal, we need an average value of 7.5x – which means around a 15th from RSJ will do the trick. Given his 12th place performance last year, a solid start to the season, and a serviceable effort in practice – I think Ricky is a lock and load type of guy this week. EDIT: RJS will be starting at the back of the field in a backup car. That doesn’t change my thoughts towards him THAT much, but it is worth noting.
Aric Almirola is another “by-design” value play based on his poor qualifying position and bottom of the barrell price. Almirola doesn’t have a necessarily have the greatest Vegas resume, but he comes with a ton of experience and a car that didn’t look horrible in final practice. I don’t know how much I actually trust this pick – but if you think he can manage a finish in the teens, then start him up. Coming from the same place, I don’t mind Cole Whitt. Whitt has had 2 great performances so far this season, and at $5,100 he doesn’t need to do much. Keep riding that train.
I don’t know if this is necessarily a “value” play, and it is strictly a longshot GPP play – but I am going to have exposure to Erik Jones. First off, Jones showed some chops last week at Atlanta, and Las Vegas is a lot less difficult for rookie drivers. Jones has had success here before in the xFinity and Truck series. Secondly, Jones is starting in the “dead area” of 6-10th. Not a whole lot of dominator potential, and very little differential potential – so he should go under owned. That said any low $7,000 driver that can compete for a top five is a solid play. This could EASILY backfire, but if you are doing MME this week, give Jones a look.
Like I said at the start – this is weird week. My research isn’t done and I will be updating my thoughts on the DFS Army Slack Room. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
