Back at it again! We started off the year in amazing fashion last week, and I am excited to keep the ball rolling. If you missed my midweek preview article – The Competition Caution – make sure you go check that out. It goes through some Atlanta history and identifies some drivers who have a good feel for Atlanta.. This article will focus more on the script of the race and how it could play out. If you want more on NASCAR DFS strategy – head over to www.dfsarmy.com and get signed up using promo code “BRADY”. That will give you exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. Tirewear, Rules Package and Laps Led – those are they three things we need to investigate in order to have a successful weekend. So let’s break them down one at a time.
Tirewear And Long Runs
Atlanta is one of the roughest tracks on the circuit. It chews up tires like no other venue and since we only go there once a year, it is hard to get the hang of. Managing tires is nothing new for drivers at any level, but Atlanta is a whole different beast. For this reason, I am mostly fading the first and second year drivers. I think we have some uber-talented young guns in this series, but all the talent in the world can’t prepare you for the intricacies of Atlanta.
What I do want to do is see which drivers tend to be quick at the end of long runs. Not because I think this race will feature a lot of long runs, but because if you are good on long runs, you are good at managing tires. So let’s look at AVG speed late in runs at Atlanta.
| Rank | Car | Driver | Speed |
| 1 | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 168.955 |
| 2 | 78 | Martin Truex Jr | 168.898 |
| 3 | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 168.878 |
| 4 | 48 | Jimmie Johnson | 168.756 |
| 5 | 42 | Kyle Larson | 168.609 |
| 6 | 88 | Dale Earnhardt Jr | 168.597 |
| 7 | 20 | Matt Kenseth | 168.581 |
| 8 | 14 | Clint Bowyer | 168.529 |
| 9 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | 168.415 |
| 10 | 41 | Kurt Busch | 168.410 |
I know – you are shocked. “The Closer” Kevin Harvick is an efficient tire manager. This makes sense as Kevin Harvick has a great history at Atlanta. I am going to dive into Kevin Harvick a little later. But I want you guys to take a look at those numbers and compare them to average finish at Atlanta.
| CAR | DRIVER | AVG FINISH |
| 24 | Chase Elliott | 8.0 |
| 20 | Matt Kenseth | 9.2 |
| 48 | Jimmie Johnson | 9.6 |
| 88 | Dale Earnhardt Jr | 11.2 |
| 18 | Kyle Busch | 13.6 |
| 41 | Kurt Busch | 14.1 |
| 4 | Kevin Harvick | 14.9 |
| 47 | AJ Allmendinger | 17.2 |
| 78 | Martin Truex Jr | 17.8 |
So if we take the overlap of drivers with a high average finish, and an ability to manage tires – we create a nice shortlist of potential studs to work with – Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Martin Truex Jr.
Rules Package
Also new this week is the fabled “2017 Rules Package”. As much as I know you would love hear me rave about the specifics of this new package – all spare you the gory details. In short, this packages makes the cars a little harder to drive, a little less stable in the corners, and less dependent on aerodynamics and more dependent on engine power and driver skill. This is actually kind of a “V2” of the rules package that was debuted at Atlanta last year, and we actually saw it in action at Kentucky in 2016. So let’s look at last year’s Atlanta Race first:
| Pos | Driver |
| 1 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 2 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 3 | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | Kurt Busch |
| 5 | Carl Edwards |
| 6 | Kevin Harvick |
| 7 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 8 | Chase Elliott (R) |
| 9 | Brad Keselowski |
| 10 | Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. |
Now let’s compare that to the Kentucky results last year:
| Pos | Driver |
| 1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | Carl Edwards |
| 3 | Ryan Newman |
| 4 | Kurt Busch |
| 5 | Tony Stewart |
| 6 | Greg Biffle |
| 7 | Jamie McMurray |
| 8 | Matt Kenseth |
| 9 | Kevin Harvick |
| 10 | Martin Truex Jr. |
And to add to that – Jimmie Johnson ran really well that weekend but got involved in an incident very early in the race. By now I am guessing you are getting the point – there is a common thread running through all these stats – Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr, Kurt Busch. These are the four guys I am going to have the highest exposure to this weekend.
Laps Led/Fastest Laps
So we have our main characters, we need to find our leading man. In recent history that head of the cast has been Kevin Harvick, but let’s look back at percentage laps led back to 2005.
| CAR | DRIVER | %LL |
| 41 | Kurt Busch | 10.8 |
| 4 | Kevin Harvick | 10.5 |
| 48 | Jimmie Johnson | 9.6 |
| 18 | Kyle Busch | 7.6 |
| 11 | Denny Hamlin | 6.6 |
| 5 | Kasey Kahne | 5.9 |
| 20 | Matt Kenseth | 5.3 |
| 88 | Dale Earnhardt Jr | 5.1 |
| 78 | Martin Truex Jr | 5.0 |
No matter where we look, we just can’t get away from these guys. So let’s use this to start our favorite plays.
Top Plays
Jimmie Johnson – I am hoping Hendrick has found some major power this year. If they have, I think Johnson is even a safer play than Harvick. Jimmie Johnson is a masterful race manager and has a knock out record at Atlanta. He is starting 18th and has amazing differential potential. This is my top play this week.
Kevin Harvick – Starting 1st is never ideal, but if there was ever a situation to capitalize on, it’s this one. I think the whole field will come out pretty tentative in segment one (no one wants to start the season with TWO wrecked race cars). I think Harvick will dominate segment one for sure, and there is a good chance he dominates the whole race just like he did in ‘15 and ‘16. I do have reservations though. The manufacturer switch from Chevy to Ford is still a question mark. Kevin also struggled in last practice (27th overall, 19th 10-Lap). That said, Harvick is good enough to overcome those hurdles.
Martin Truex Jr. – Truex Jr. has been a 1.5 mile ace for two years straight, and with a miserable Speed Weeks behind him he should be looking to get back to form this week. Starting 9th, he is not a great place differential play, but he does have dominator potential. He ran his fastest 10-Laps in final practice towards the end of the session, which implies he was getting better with time. He has a fantastic Atlanta history (avg. running position of 11.3) and has a tendency to lead laps at tracks like this. I think he is a top-5 guy this week and a guy who could compete for a win.
Kurt Busch – It’s almost a shame that the recency bias is going to push Kurt Busch higher owned than usual, because he is a sneaky good play this weekend. During a time in Kurt’s career you can pencil him in to be upfront all day when you came to Atlanta. He avgs 35.5 laps led at Atlanta since 2005, boasts an impressive 13.9 running position, and tends to stay out of trouble here. Starting 14th gives him some differential potential as I think he can sneak into the top 5, and even fill the dominator role this week. That said, all my concerns with Kevin Harvick apply to Kurt Busch. I think they are a solid boom or bust stack.
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is a guy who has been a top-10 staple at Atlanta. WIth an average running position of 12.4 and an average finish of 9.2 – he is grossly underpriced in my opinion. He didn’t blow my socks off in practice, but no one can put a race together like Matt Kenseth. He is a great tire manager and with a starting position of 16th, he offers some differential potential.
Dale Earnhardt Jr – I’d be much higher on JR if he didn’t qualify 8th. He has a great Atlanta resume, but never really leads laps at the pace we need. He is a cash game consideration but I am mostly fading in GPPs.
Fades
Jamie McMurray. He is starting 7th and looked solid in practice, so their may be some temptation. However, McMurray has some debts to pay this week. He drove really hard at Daytona, and I think some people will run him the same way this week. I don’t think they will wreck him, but at a tire that is demanding on equipment as is, the last thing you need is everyone else being hard on your equipment too.
Outside of him in particular, I think the main fades are obvious. Any of those guys starting up front that don’t usually run up front are worth fading. I also don’t like targeting younger drivers at Atlanta, which contradicts my upcoming Ty and Buescher touts, but what can I say…I am a hypocrite! I have very little exposure to Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones.
Value
Ty Dillon – Ty Dillon looked stellar on the speed sheets this weekend, but luckily for us – qualified fairly poorly. His predecessor, Casey Mears, always came to Atlanta and performed and I think Ty will do the same. He eeked out a 17th here last year in Tony Stewarts car and has a stellar xFinity and Truck series record (he won here in the truck series). He also has an impressive late-run track record. If this race drags out to long green flag runs, he will be an even better play.
Chris Buescher – Chris will probably go highest owned of the low $6000 guys, and for good reason. He is an uber talented driver who was held back by equipment last year. This year he is getting an upgrade in equipment, but his DK price hasn’t reflected that yet. He has a good record here in the xFinity series, and his JTG Racing team has had success here as well. A 28th starting spot limits his potential as a cash game lock, but he is a potential GPP winner, I believe.
David Ragan – I have changed my tune on Ragan over the last few hours. He looked really solid in practice. Starting 34th with a $5900 price tag, what do you really have to lose getting some exposure to him? He is an experienced guy who can manage a race well and compete for a top 25.
So that’s it. Atlanta is going to be a fairly unpredictable days with tire problems, pit strategy and new package implications. My best advice is to find dominators, place differential guys and value picks and mix and match. Take advantage of Taco’s spreadsheet and the Domination Station, and use code “BRADY” when you sign up for a 20% discount! I will also be active on the #Nascar room on Slack. Play smart and go crush it, lets see some DFS Army logos out there this weekend.
