Well, Atlanta was a trip! I did end the day with positive ROI, but I was upset about the missed Brad Keselowski call. I had less than 30% exposure to Brad, mostly because nothing came up in my research that showed he would be a competitor this week. In fact, on the podcast I actually touted his teammate as a sneaky play instead! However, after scraping some data from a couple of “sharks” that I respect very much, I can see that they had closer to 50% exposure to him. What did I miss? Why did this happen!!
Kes doesn’t have a particularly impressive track record at Atlanta, and he didn’t look particularly good during final practice. So why did the sharps have such high exposure to him? He had a top-5 starting spot, so the differential potential was limited. Here is what I think:
- With the new race format, there is huge emphasis on strategy. There is no better than Paul Wolfe – this probably boosted his win probability and I did not account for this.
- Some beat reporters had mentioned Keselowski was “sneaky fast” on Sunday morning. I didn’t put much stock into it, and I probably should.
- Keselowski started 5th. He was a good dominator pivot in theory. Even though he didn’t dominate, he kind of fumbled his way into a win and hit value.
Some combination of this stuff probably boosted his value. I should have caught it, and I didn’t. Sorry folks, but we will do better this week. To start, here are some stats to get you ready!
LAS VEGAS PREVIEW
Las Vegas is actually one of my favorite tracks on the circuit. It produces as much excitement as any 1.5 mile and really strikes a nice balance between car and driver talent. While I can’t dive very far into car into we start seeing some practices, we can look at some historical Las Vegas driver stats.
Track Specifications
Track/Race Length: 1.5 mile oval, 267 laps, 400.5 miles
Front straight: 2,275 feet
Back straight: 1,572 feet
Banking after reconfig 2007: Corners:20°, Front Straight: 9°, Back Straight: 9°
Banking before config 2006: Corners:12°, Front Straight: 9°, Back Straight: 3°
Grandstand Seating: 142,000
Pace Car Speeds: Pit Road – 45 mph; Track 55 mph
Opened: 1996 (First Cup race held in 1998)
First thing we should note this week is that this is a 400 mile race, not 500. That means there is going to be lower overall scoring than Atlanta, as only 400 FL and LL are available. That does not, however, mean that determining a dominator will be any less valuable. From a DFS strategy perspective, Las Vegas will be similar song and dance as Atlanta. Let’s look back at the 2016 Las Vegas race. I posted this earlier this week on my twitter (@bradymillerDFS) to rave reviews. “I can’t believe how good your handwriting is” wrote one not-real commenter. Thanks, not-real, thanks.
First thing that jumped out at me when looking back at 2016 is the optimal had two drivers that started in the top-5, and neither of them won the race. The 2016 winner (Keselowski), pulled off one his classic late race out of nowhere wins, and didn’t point all that well. I believe 2016 to be an outlier race, and I think odds are that the winner will be in the optimal in 2017 (HOT TAKE!). That said, Las Vegas has not traditionally been conducive to big place differential performances, so the importance of finding those drivers is reduced this week.
Next I want to take a look at how this track has treated the drivers going back to 2005 (ideally you would look back to 2007, since the track was reconfigured in 2006. But this is what NASCAR Statistics provides). Two things jump out at me when I look at this chart – 1) the usual suspects are at the top and 2) Kasey Kahne is way higher than I would have thought. When you look at this chart, I would suggest focusing on Avg Pos instead of Avg Finish, since Avg Finish can be skewed by factors outside of the driver’s control.
This should be enough info to get you started on your research for this Sunday. Remember to check back here Saturday to cop my FULL and FREE preview article, and the FULL and FREE Taco’s Fast 40 podcast, where we break down every single driver in the field. See you then!
