What a speedweeks! After a chaotic Daytona 500 we managed to salvage a pretty decent return, just by targeting poor starters. We missed out on a couple key players – but it was just too crazy to predict. But now it time for some real racing. This week we are heading just up the interstate to the fabled Atlanta Motor Speedway. We are still a few days away from really digging into this slate (we need practice and qualifying results, first!) – but I want to take a second a go through Atlanta, and how the race might play out from a fantasy perspective. For a real in-depth analysis, check back Saturday afternoon for “The Sway Bar”
About Atlanta
Banking/Turn 1 & 2: 24 degrees
Banking/Turn 3 & 4: 24 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 5 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 5 degrees
Frontstretch Length: 2,332 feet
Backstretch Length: 1,800 feet
Race Length: 325 laps / 500.5 miles
Stage 1 & 2: 85 Laps (each)
Final Stage: 155 Laps
Top 10 Driver Ratings at Atlanta
Jimmie Johnson…………………… 107.1
Matt Kenseth………………………… 98.3
Denny Hamlin……………………….. 95.5
Chase Elliott…………………………. 95.5
Kurt Busch…………………………… 95.4
Dale Earnhardt Jr………………….. 95.1
Kevin Harvick……………………….. 94.7
Kyle Busch…………………………… 93.1
Martin Truex Jr……………………… 92.4
Brad Keselowski……………………. 87.7
First thing you may notice about the drivers ratings list…a lot of the usual suspects – and for good reason. Atlanta is so much more complex than most of the 1.5 mile tracks on the circuit. The track surface is very old and is a nightmare for tire wear. Think about dragging a rubber ball across a cheese grater, that’s Atlanta in a nutshell. The key to Atlanta is managing the tire wear and certain drivers certainly have a propensity to do that.
Atlanta is going to playout much different than Daytona. Fewer wrecks, bigger skill gap, and less reliance on place differential. There will be 325 laps in this race, which means we have 162.5 FTPS for fast laps, and 81.25 FTPS for laps led. Identifying who will be hoarding the majority of those points will be our primary objective for this weekend. Now it is far too early to start predicting this kind of stuff yet but take note – Kevin Harvick led the most laps the last three years running.
We also need to find the winner. There is a chance that the dominator will be the winner – but it is rare at Atlanta, and for good reason. Chances are if you are dominating a race, you are burning up tires and equipment and you are going to falter towards the end of the race. In the last four shows at Atlanta, the laps leader did not win the race. Now it is far too early to start predicting this kind of stuff yet but take note – Jimmie Johnson has won this race the last two years running – and five times total (Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick are going to be names you hear alot this weekend).
The next piece of the Atlanta puzzle will be finding place differential drivers with low salaries and an ability to sneak a few laps led and fastest laps. I can’t begin to identify these guys yet, but my early research likes Ty Dillon, Kasey Kahne, Aric Almirola and AJ Allmendinger. Spend some time with those guys this week and see what you can find. Lastly, we need to look at the $5000-$6000 drivers and find who is going to get us around 30 FTPS. This will be the hardest part of the weekend. We will revisit this once prices come out.
Atlanta is a management racetrack and raw speed is not gonna cut it on it’s own. Look for drivers with positive late race place differential, low incident exposure and lastly, drivers who have positive restart differential stats. Last year this race only had three cautions, but I think that is an outlier. With the new rules package and new stage racing I expect we will have at least 7 or 8 cautions. This will benefit drivers who can get it done on restarts.
I know this is a very high level article, but it is a place to start. I will dive in with more stats and picks on The Sway Bar this Saturday. Also be on the lookout for a preview podcast Friday night after qualifying. Talk to you all soon.
Drivers To Research This Week
Kevin Harvick
Jimmie Johnson
Kasey Kahne
Ty Dilion
Aric Almirola
AJ Allmendinger
