Shark Autopsy – Dissecting the Mass Multi Entry Strategies of top DFS Pros
Arnold Palmer Invitational 2017 $33 deep dive
Each week we’ll take a deeper dive into the overall strategy of top pros to reverse engineer their process. We’ll take a look at their exposures, build concepts, and look to find weaknesses we can exploit to keep the Army one step ahead of the competition.
Alright Army today we’ll dissect the approach the top PGA DFS pros are taking towards Multi Entering contests to see where we can find patterns and look at how they approach line up construction and their profitability with those approaches.
Today we’re going to look at the top four (4) PGSA DFS players in the world currently according to Grinder Rankings. FlavorFlav, Jae686, Scout326, and SaahilSud. Here are there top 10 exposures in the contest.
The three best players in the world had a very similar approach:
- Heavy on 2-3 players (core)
- Middling exposure on 6-8 other players (value plays)
The odd man out (SaahilSud) took the approach of going all in on two players and heavy on a third. His tactic paid off this week with taking 32nd in the $4, 4th in the $33, 2nd and 3rd in the $333, and 1st and 3rd in the $1500. Strategies slightly changed in the $333 and $1500, but heavy on the core and lighter on the value was his main concept.
Players and Exposures
All four top players shared a similar player pool through their heaviest exposures while having 2-3 uniques in their top 10. Highlighted in Red below is the cross over between all four players while white are their unique selections.
These one off players with heavier than average exposures compared to the rest of the field could mean a few different things for line up construction:
- They fit in their salary restrictions for LU construction.
- Each of the top players weighted stats differently than the rest of the field and each other.
- They had an inside thought on a particular player.
A good example although not unique is SaahilSud’s 96% exposure to Tommy Fleetwood where the rest of the field had him at 16.26%. If we dig further into this one player, we can reference our own customized projections here at the DFSArmy.
With not much to go on besides his opening Vegas odds of 60:1, recent form of a second place finish at WGC, and world ranking 35, there isn’t much to dissect. However twitter and pga.com leading up to tee off time showed him hitting the ball well in practice from both the tee and approach shots.
What about Marc Leishman where both SaahilSud (73%) and FlavorFlav (29%) were both overweight as compared to the field’s 13.30%.
At $6,800 Marc on paper looked to be a good value play. Leishman’s played this course over a 7 year clip before this year with mixed results. Besides the GO, he’s been in top 30 form warranting a look and for this salary would definitely warrant a first glance. Depending on where you weighted stats this week, his efficiency, putting, and Shots Gained off the Tee are all where we want them to be. Looking into it further he was #2 on the projection for Efficiency Scoring page in our metrics posting solid numbers in all categories which all points to taking a heavy exposure on him this past week.
Results
We can dissect the strategy until we’re blue in the face, but how did it work this week for the top pros
At the end of the day Saahil’s strategy was the most effective. His best line up came in 4th place for $10,000 and with his core doing well, his distribution of winning games was denser than any other pro we’ve looked at today. In my opinion his strategy was a high variance with based on needing his three core members to do well in order for him to cash but in the world of GPPs, you have to have the balls to take that kind of risk sometimes.
Chalk Talk
One thing that was consistent between all four pros we’re taking a look at today is they faded parts of the chalk in some way. Let’s take a look at the top 10 most drafted players by the field as compared to the pros.
- The pros only agreed on Hideki Matsuyama as someone to have exposure to. They all went overweight on him as compared to the field on average of 11% higher exposure.
- The pros unanimously agreed that Kevin Kirsner was not the play this week.
- 5% of the time, the pros faded the chalk.
- Rory McIlroy was the only other player the four pros has consensus on (3/4) as a play.
Digging into the over exposure of Hideki Matsuyama we can see a few trends as from above
- Great course history, along with everything we want to see from adjusted statistics and he ranks 6th in scoring efficiency.
- For the above $10,000 in salary guys, his statistics in the Field rank better overall as compared to the other three and he has a better efficiency rating making his a slightly better value at the top.
- His lower price tag than McIlroy ($12,000) and Stenson ($11,500) offers more wiggle room for better value in his line ups overall without sacrificing upside.
Why would Kevin Kisner be a fade then if the rest of the field was on him?
- Kevin missed the cut last year on the course and hit 49th in 2015 meaning it might not be the best one for him. Some guys just play poorly at certain courses.
- Recent form is all over the place from top 5 finishes to 48th. Although this would indicate he’s at least a cut maker.
- His Field Adjusted Statistics are marginal coming into this course, but his efficiency is up putting him in 5th
- However the big nail in the coffin here is his $7,600 price tag. There are equal or better plays at his price (Finau, Na, Grillo) and below his price (Lovemark, Schwartzel, Kaymer) putting him at an awkward spot.
Conclusion
While hindsight is always 20/20, next week and going forward we can look at what the pros are doing on a weekly basis to make better data driven decisions in our line ups each week. Here are some MME tips to keep in mind:
- Picking a core of 2-3 golfers is the general strategy of the top pros that’s easy to emulate.
- Consider which stats you’re putting more weight on each week and adjust the projects to match.
- Keep an eye on our slack channel for up to date information on all golfers.
