Course Overview
The OHL Classic will take place at El Cameleon Golf Course in Mayakoba right off the shores of eastern Mexico. This Greg Norman designed course usually plays as a short 7,000 yard par 72 but plays par 71 during tournaments. The par 3s are particularly short including Hole #7 that’s just over 100 yards. There are only 3 par 5s since one will be played as a par 4 but they’re quite eagle-able if you can place your drive right. The fairways are wide and forgiving and long hitters have done well here in the past but we’ve also seen short hitters with high accuracy do well here. It looks like as long as you have some form of skill off the tee you tend to do better here than guys who are better with the irons- it’s basically the opposite of last week. As we noted with the last few swing seasons, these smaller tournaments seem to favor guys in great form so be sure to look at how they fared in the Safeway and Shriners. The field is very weak with a few decent players, tons of new web.com graduates, and low-end PGA regulars. Here is a nice hole-by-hole tour from the course’s website.
High End Picks
Russell Knox $11,800
No more middle-of-the-field pricing for Knox this week as he’s by far the most expensive player on the board. It’s hard to deny the incredible run he’s been on since winning the Travelers Championship and he has elite course history that culminated in a T2 finish last year, but his price tag may be a bit too much. If you can afford him, he’s probably the surest bet in the field to make the cut.
John Rahm $10,700
Last week we saw staggering ownership of Rahm ranging from 35%-40% and he’s finally received a well deserved price boost. After yet another top 15 finish last week at the Shriners he’s likely to be chalk yet again with this field not being very tough. He finished T10 here last year and I think he fits the course well with his raw driving talent. If you have the balls, he’d make a risky, yet effective GPP fade but he’s probably mandatory in cash.
Keegan Bradley $10,000
After a woeful start to the 2016 season Bradley has found his groove again. He hasn’t missed a cut since the US Open in June and he’s been peaking with a 6th in the CIMB Classic and a 7th at last week’s Shriners Open. Bradley is similar to Rahm in the sense that he had a top 10 showing here last year and his best skill is his long driver. He’s a bit cheaper and will have a bit less ownership but lacks the extreme upside of Rahm.
Harris English $9,500
English won here in 2014 and boasts a pretty impressive cut making streak himself. He’s made 11 straight cuts dating back to The Players in May and is fresh off a 4th place finish at the Shriners. I expect him to be highly owned in cash either paired with Bradley or Rahm. I’d play him in cash but less so in GPP because he seriously lacks upside. Last week looked like an anomaly, he usually likes to settle into the 30-50th range and make the cut. That might be different at a course he’s won at but it didn’t help him last year when he missed the cut.
Mid Range Picks
Luke List $7,800
Don’t let his missed cut here last you trick you, this time last year List was fresh off an injury that had sidelined him an entire season. List has certainly found his groove since then and is establishing himself as a top bomber on Tour. This year he’s averaging a ridiculous 324 yard drive and is near the top on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. He’s in great form early on posting 3 high finishes including a T2 at Sanderson Farms. If he keeps it up with his driver he’ll be hitting his second shot with a short iron on these miniature par 5s and the 8 point eagle bonus on DK is a real difference maker.
Jason Bohn $7,600
Bohn certainly hasn’t looked the same since his heart attack but this is the 2nd course in a row he has elite (if not the best) course history at. He made the cut just fine last week and now he’s headed to a place he’s posted a 2nd, 7th, and 3rd at over the last 3 years. He finished 19th in his only other try here and his stroke average is the best in the field at 67.6. He’s clearly comfortable on the beach, I can see him easily making another cut.
Charles Howell III $7,500
Howell is usually an instant lock from fall until spring because of his early season cut making ways, but this year he’s a bit shakier coming off injury. He looked great his last time out at a course he’s been mediocre at and he gets to parlay that performance into a course he’s had a strong history at- he’s posted top-20 finishes in 5 of his last 6 tries here. He’s hitting over 300 yards and this is the cheapest you’re going to see him for a long time.
Harold Varner III $$7,100
Let’s keep the trend going with another 3rd generation bomber. This was Varner’s coming out party last year and he’s only gotten better since. He’s improved his length even further and now he ranks among with the big bombers. He’s also improved his accuracy from awful to average. His elite par 5 averages make him a strong eagle candidate, great for GPP.
Value Picks
Ryan Blaum $6,900
We only have 3 tournaments of data to go off of with him but so far he’s impressed with 3 quality finishes. He seems to be a solid par 4 and 5 scorer with a fantastic putter. He made his PGA debut here last year to the tune of a T29 finish. He’s a risky play but definitely one of the better young guys to target. I expect him to be the highest owned player under $7,000 for sure.
Ryan Brehm $6,500
Brehm is similar to the Ryan we just talked about, he’s another rookie who’s made every cut in his young career. He posted top 30 finishes in the Shriners and Sanderson Farms after barely making the cut at Safeway and stumbling to a 69th place finish. He hits the ball well over 300 yards and that’s what we’re looking for in GPPs.
Jim Herman $6,400
Herman didn’t look very good last week missing the cut but the course wasn’t the most driver friendly. He’s always been accurate with his driver but lately he’s showed a much longer distance. He’s one of the best in the field at <400 yard par 4 scoring and there are 3 such holes on the course this week. He’s also pretty good at par 5s and he’s one to go for the green on his second shot. Definitely a GPP play with low ownership.
J.J. Henry $6,300
Henry is admittedly really bad at strong field events, but in weak fields like this he loves to squeak by the cut and finish 40-60th. This is his best course and he’s made every cut here, he even has 2 top 10 finishes. He’s a great way to save money in cash lineups as he has a much better chance of making the cut than all the scrubs in his range.
Brian Gay $5,700
If you wanna scrape the absolute bottom of the barrel, you might as well go with the guy with the hot putter. I know it’s early on and stats can be misleading but he leads the tour right now in Strokes Gained: Putting and putting is definitely the streakiest stat there is. I’m hoping his streak continues because the rest of his game is a mess. The short course length might make up for his super short driver and he’s actually had success here in the past with a T5 and 4/4 cuts made.
FantasyDraft Picks
Cash:
Rahm ($20,300)
Kirk ($18,200)
English ($18,100)
Howell III ($14,400)
Cejka ($14,000)
Varner III ($13,600)
Hurley III ($13,000)
Levin ($11,500)
GPP:
Piercy ($18,700)
Finau ($17,800)
McDowell ($17,400)
Wagner ($16,100)
Kokrak ($15,200)
Rodgers ($13,900)
Stroud ($12,500)
Henry ($12,200)
Malnati ($13,500)
Gay ($10,900)
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