The second major championship is upon us at in Oakmont, Pennsylvania. Oakmont Country Club is perhaps the hardest course the PGA Tour plays at. It was last played here during the 2007 US Open and the winner Angel Cabrera managed to win with a +5 score. Every hole averages above par, and the par 5s are well over 600 yards long and dangerous. Hitting the fairways will be very important because the 200+ bunkers and super thick rough will eat the ball alive and lead to huge numbers. Even the best of scramblers won’t be able to get out of this rough if it’s buried deep enough in it. The greens are humongous in size, ultra fast, and super slopy. Putting is going to be insanely difficult for everyone and there will be an emphasis on making long lag putts. Look at putters putting well from long distances and players with good 3 putt avoidance. DraftKings fantasy scoring will be very low this week with all the bogeys. This means finishing position and birdies/eagles are even more important this week than usual. Players could possibly make the cut and manage to lose you points with all the bogeys they collect. When looking back at the 2007 US Open, the top stat that led to success was bogey avoidance. If you’re good at staying out of trouble you’re going to be able to tread water and stay in the hunt.
Backtest results taken from the top 30 players at the 2007 US Open
It’s important to note that this week only the top 60 and ties will be making the cut, so getting 6/6 through the cut line will be harder than usual. I expect variance to be a lot more harsh this week, as players can find themselves carding quadruple bogeys out of nowhere. Diversify plenty in GPP, don’t own any one guy too highly because he could catch a bad break.
This week’s Cheat Sheet includes sortable stats for all of the categories above as course history and the Vegas Odds for each golfer for both winning and top 20 finishes. Using the top 20 odds is a great way to identify value across the draftkings salary spectrum! CHECK OUT MY
CHECK OUT OUR U.S. OPEN CHEAT SHEET HERE
DRAFTKINGS PGA MILLIONAIRE MAKER
Draftkings has brought back their Millionaire Maker contest for this event. The contest has a $3.5 Million prize pool with $1 Million going to first place. Draftkings does thses types of contests for the Majors. It will be interesting to see if the contest actually fills. As of this writing, with less than 20 hours to lock, it is still only half full. If you haven’t signed up for a Draftkings account already, the following link includes a free ticket to the PGA Millionaire Maker ($20 Value) for new depositing Draftkings accounts.
High End Plays
Jason Day $12,100
Day should be one of the most popular plays this week. He’s the best golfer in the field right now and he can do it all statistically. His driving accuracy stats are to be desired, but you know he’s gonna club down to his 2 iron and play it safe. He’s a terrific putter and it’s not hard to envision him stringing birdies together and running away with it.
Jordan Spieth $11,900
Elite scrambling and putting are the tools that lead Spieth to last year’s US Open victory at Chambers Bay and they’re what’s going to be required to win here. While his approach game is average at best, Spieth’s skills around the green help him save par consistently and sneak in birdies where he’s not supposed to get the,. He has the composure to win against anyone, and scores birdies at a top tier rate while staying away from double bogeys and worse.
Dustin Johnson $11,000
Last year DJ blew the US Open to Spieth after an ugly 3 putt on 17. After that 3 putt, DJ managed to go on 2015’s longest streak of any player besides Will MacKenzie without a 3 putt. DJ has improved his game this year, especially his putter. If anyone’s going to have eagle opportunities on these 600+ par 5s, it’s going to be DJ. Just one eagle could make a huge difference with the expected low scoring. I expect him to be very popular with his hot current form, and with the way he likes to make huge numbers on holes he could make for a nice fade target in GPP.
Rickie Fowler $10,700
Bogey avoidance is going to be the most important stat this week and Fowler ranks 1st on the tour currently. He’s currently in very bad form, which should lead to him having unusually low ownership numbers. As per my statistical research, he finished 2nd best behind only Jason Day. I think with his top 10 potential and low ownership he makes for a strong bounce back pick.
Phil Mickelson $9,300
2016 has been going so much better for Mickelson than 2015. He’s putting lights out and scrambling like he always does. Although he missed the cut here in 2007, he should still be a popular pick given his current form, low price, and reputation as a grand wizard scrambling king. Him and Kevin Na are probably the first two you think of when it comes to scrambling out of unique situations and with the insane rough and name brand it’s no wonder people will be looking to Phil in these big public tournaments. You’ll hear people get into trouble more than your average guy but he’s too good of a short game player for me to be off of.
Henrik Stenson $9,100
Stenson is perhaps the safest off of the tee of any player on tour. He doesn’t use a driver, but he’s always been locked in with his 3 wood off the tee and that works perfectly here. He’s great at placing his drive just where he wants to on the fairway for the approach shot, which he’s also great at. He’s missed his last 2 PGA cuts so he’s going to be very unpopular. Before those missed cuts he was a beacon of consistency. He finished 4th at the Nordea Masters in Sweden his last time out, which could be enough to shake him out of his funk. If he plays like he normally does he’s a steal at this price.
Core Plays
Matt Kuchar $8,500
Kuchar gets the title of top play this week. Everything sets up for him perfectly form and he’s in red hot form with 4 straight top 10 finishes. He’s extremely safe and accurate, and he’s a lights out putter. I expect him to be the highest owned player of the week in both cash and GPP. Lock him into your cash games; as for tournaments you could either go with the field or fade him for Patrick Reed at $8,400 who is also a good play.
Brooks Koepka $8,100
Koepka has really felt it over his last 2 tournaments, finishing 2nd each time. He’s got the raw power of guys like DJ, Day, and Bubba with slightly better accuracy. He can try for the green on some of the short par 4s and attack the long par 5s. His short game is iffy, he’s not the best scrambler but he’s good out of the sand. Likewise his putting is pretty good from most distances, but he does 3 putt it more than others. I like him for his DK scoring upside and low Vegas odds.
Brandt Snedeker $8,000
Snedeker has been laying low for a while and it’s about time he pops up for another big showing. He’s accurate, scrambles well, and he’s a great putter- especially on these Poa Annua greens. He’s known to excel at harder courses and he did finish 23rd here in 2007. He’s one of the best in the field at bogey avoidance which has been identified as the key stat here. I love him for cash and you know he has the top 5 and win upside needed for gpp.
Russell Knox $7,600
Knox is one of the best accuracy players on tour. He’s one of the best in the field at Driving Accuracy, Bogey Avoidance, Greens in Regulation, Proximity to Hole, and Scrambling from the Rough. His stats stick out heavily so I’m not afraid to use him liberally. He seems safe for cash, and he does have a win and a few other high finishes on the year so the GPP upside is there.
Marc Leishman $7,300
When setting up my Stat Cruncher (customizable and available on the VIP cheat sheet) Leishman stuck out as the obvious top value on the board. He comes out ranked in the top 10 of all golfers when looking at the key stats for the week. He’s very well rounded, great around the greens, and stays away from bogeys and three putts. Leishman has been in great form and he made it to a playoff in last year’s British Open, so you know he can perform in a strong major field.
Daniel Berger $7,200
Fresh off of the win, Berger is an obvious play because his salary can’t that. Even before his win he was in great form racking up top 25 finishes. His hot putter has elevated his game to the best it’s been in his short career while his irons have remained strong from last season. I expect him to be a popular play but with the soft pricing ownership around this price range it’s going to be more spread out than we think.
Luke Donald $6,800
Think of Luke Donald as a mini-Kuchar. Short off the tee but accurate, doesn’t bogey, pars a lot, exceptional around the greens, and putts well. Donald’s bogey % is easily the lowest of any player under $7,000 which to me makes him a nice value cash game play. His upside may be a bit limited for tournaments.
Kevin Na $6,600
Na is above average in every statistical category you’d want here. He’s not long off of the tee but has a top tier good drive % due to his accuracy. He’s an elite scrambler from any and all locations and on the greens he’s one of the better long lag putters in the field. Na is most likely going to start hot, keep his head down, make a lot of pars, then get in position for his usual early Sunday strike. At a course like this, Na is going to be a nice cheap safety net.
Soren Kjeldsen $6,400
Kjeldsen has already proven he can compete in a major with a T7 performance at Augusta. He’s made 12/14 cuts on both the Euro and PGA tours and has maintained solid cutmaking consistency all year long. He’s a no namer in the states, so I don’t see his ownership being very high unless people remember him from the Masters. He’s just so solid, so cheap, and so unknown I love the play.
Retief Goosen $6,300
Goosen is surely going to be the highest owned of anyone under $7,000. He’s on a streak of 3 straight top 15 finishes and has made 12/13 cuts on the year. He struggles tee to green but around and on the greens he’s elite in almost every way. His 3 putt percentage is among the lowest in the field- hell it’s been 218 holes since his last 3 putt so you can definitely tell he’s been feeling it lately. I think he’s a must play in cash games; as for tournaments he’s a good chalky play but you could pivot to Toms (5th here in 2007) or Euro player Gregory Bourdy at this price range.
Lucas Glover $6,200
Glover could also be popular because he sticks out from the field in several ways. His Vegas odds blow everyone else in his price range away. He’s in great form right now with 6 cuts made in 8 tournaments and both of his missed cuts were actually MDFs after 3 rounds. His bogie avoidance % is 3rd in the entire field and if that isn’t enough he’s also elite in hitting greens in regulation. He’s a generally crappy putter but he’s actually very good at the range between 9-12 feet that stuck out the highest during the 2007 statistical backtest. I think he’s a solid way to round out your roster and save money for the studs.
Tim Wilkinson $5,800
Wilkinson missed the cut by a stroke and killed me last week. I’m willing to let it slide if he can make the cut at this juicy price tag. He had been in really hot form coming into last week and it was because of his putter and iron accuracy. His long putting has been impressive and that should help a ton on these giant greens. With Wilkinson you’re just looking to slide a super cheap guy through the cut and I think he’s by far the best bet under $6,000.
