The Tour is headed to North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow is a 7,440 yard par 72 and if you’re long off of the tee you have an advantage here. The fairways are wide and forgiving and the rough isn’t the worst to be in. Putting hasn’t correlated with success here in the past, so focus more on tee to green stats this week. Course history doesn’t seem to matter too much, but there are a few stud exceptions. The field is stronger than last week, but not quite as star filled as we’ll see next week at the Players. Outside of the defending champ, Rory, the pricing is super soft and you can make your rosters any way you want. There’s a lot of value at the bottom so stars and scrubs style rosters can be made with ease, but the range from $7,800-$8,000 is loaded with great plays this week.
My full cheat sheet for this week’s event is posted and includes course history, recent form and my proprietary efficiency rankings which identify which studs and which punts to target specifically for this course. Check it out HERE
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High End Plays
Rory McIlroy $12,800
Rory absolutely dominated last year and crushed the scoring record with a -21 finish. That was his second win and his course history is superb here. He’s a 4/1 favorite here despite the tougher field, so he’s expected to finish in the top 10 easily. With the super soft pricing he’s affordable despite almost being $13,000. His price should keep his ownership in check, so feel free to use him in GPP.
Rickie Fowler $10,900
Rickie is another former winner here and he’s never missed the cut. He’s been a top 10 machine all year and he’s great at the long par 4s and 5s this course is cluttered with. I like the play.
Adam Scott $10,600
Scott is long off of the tee, has the best strokes gained stats on Tour, and ranks #1 in scoring efficiency based on the hole distances at this course. You’d figure he’d be a good fit for this course but he’s missed 3 straight cuts here. You could fade him based on course history, but he could potentially be low owned and he’s the kind of scorer who can get 100+ fantasy points.
Henrik Stenson $10,200
Stenson has now made 35 cuts in a row, but this week could be challenging for him. He’s missed 3 out of the last 4 cuts here and has never finished better than 58th. Stenson is always popular because of his cut making prowess but he may be a popular fade this week. He’s my favorite golfer so I’m gonna use him and pray but I recommend fading him here honestly.
Justin Rose $10,000
Rose burned 30% of the field last week with an unexpected missed cut at a course he was dominant at. I expect everyone to be off of him now, but he’s a good fit for this course and finished 5th here in his last attempt. He could be a very sneaky low owned GPP play but I’d go a little cheaper in cash.
Phil Mickelson $9,500
Phil is one of the only course horses here and boy is his resume impressive. In the last 10 years he’s made all 10 cuts with 8 top 12 finishes in that span. He should be the highest owned player this week and for good reason. I’d recommend going overweight on Phil instead of trying to fade him. He’s a perfect cash game play too unless you see his recent missed cuts as being a problem.
Hideki Matsuyama $9,300
Matsuyama is perhaps the best play on the entire board. He’s second to only Scott in tee to green stats and his mediocre putting is forgiven here. He’s in great form this year and has done well here in years past. I’d pair him with Phil in cash games and anchor plenty of GPP teams with him.
J.B. Holmes $9,100
J.B. is another terrific play this week. He’s made every cut this year and 16 in a row since last year. He’s posting top 10s more often than not, and he’s one of the longest drivers in the field. He missed the cut last year but won the tournament the year before. I’d hold off on cash but use him heavily in GPP.
Mid Range Plays
Daniel Berger $8,400
Berger is riding hot form with 4 straight top 20 finishes and he finished top 30 here last year. He’s long off of the tee and is good at long par 4 and 5 scoring. Good GPP play.
Charles Howell III $8,100
CH3 is always underpriced and is always heavily owned and that will continue this week. He’s had an incredible season full of top 20 finishes and that should continue at a course he’s had success at recently. I’d use him more in cash than GPP.
Webb Simpson $7,900
This is Webb’s home course, and he’s done very well here for years including a 2nd place finish last year. He’s the player type we’re looking for- good tee to green but a poor putter. He hasn’t been as long off of the tee this year as he used to, but he should be just fine at a very familiar course.
Jamie Lovemark $7,900
Lovemark almost won last week, and this week looks even better for him. This is a course where he can let his long driving skills free and it should result in plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities. He tops the field in long par 4 scoring efficiency and that’s going to be key this week. I love him as a high upside GPP play but he should remain heavily owned.
Kevin Chappell $7,900
Chappell isn’t the longest off of the tee but his tee to green stats stand out. He’s finished top 20 here in the last 2 years and he’s posted top 10 finishes in 3 of his last 4 events. I love him for the combination of great course history and current form, plus his 40/1 Vegas odds stick out in this range.
Gary Woodland $7,800
Woodland hasn’t missed a cut here and posts a better finish every year he plays. Last year he finished 4th so that means he must finish top 3 this year, right? He’s in much better form this year, making 10/11 cuts. His stats stick out, as he’s the longest driver in the entire field. This makes him one of the best par 5 scoring threats, and with an 8 point reward for eagles that’s huge. He eagled twice last week, so he represents huge upside. I’d use him heavily in both cash and GPP.
Patrick Rodgers $7,700
This is the event last year where Rodgers broke out onto the scene with a T2, losing to only god-mode Rory. He’s a superb driver and par 5 player, and he hits a ton of greens. He was in pretty bad form before bouncing back last week, but I think this course suits him better than any other recent course.
Patton Kizzire $7,700
The rookie is on a roll with 8 out of his last 9 cuts made and recent finishes of 14th and 8th. He’s not the longest off of the tee, but he gets it done on the long par 5s. He makes for a safe cash play and potentially overlooked GPP option in this crowded range.
Tony Finau $7,600
Finau is 2nd in the field in driving distance by .2 yards, so he stands out as a play here. On top of that he finished T16 here last year. His form has been suspect outside of his win at Puerto Rico, and that’s the only thing keeping me from rostering him a ton.
Kevin Streelman $7,500
Streelman has been good this season, but the rel reason for this play is his course history- 3 straight top 15 finishes. Speaks for itself.
Ryan Moore $7,500
5 straight cuts made here with 2 top 10s and a top 20 finish in that span. That in combination with his par 4 scoring and good form this season make him a solid play.
Luke Donald $7,300
Donald is a short, Furyk type player so his stats do not match the course, but if Furyk can be great here why not a red hot Donald? He’s made 7 of his last 8 cuts with recent finishes of 2nd and 13th. His 50/1 Vegas odds really stand out in this range too.
Brendan Steele $7,200
Long off of the tee, 4/5 cuts made, T9 last year, and a great showing in his last tournament. Underpriced for his skillset for sure.
Value Plays
- Luke List $6,900
- Harold Varner III $6,900
- Kyle Stanley $6,800
- Daniel Summerhays $6,800
- Will Wilcox $6,600
- John Senden $6,600
- Shawn Stefani $6,600
- Jonathan Byrd $6,500
- Hunter Mahan $6,500
- Jhonattan Vegas $6,400
- William McGirt $6,400
- Ollie Schniederjans $6,400
- Geoff Ogilvy $6,200 (course horse)
- George McNeill $6,100
- Sean O’Hair $6,100 (former winner)
- Bobby Wyatt $6,000
- Roberto Castro $5,900
- Adam Hadwin $5,800
- Ricky Barnes $5,800
- David Toms $5,700
- Chesson Hadley $5,600
- Tyler Aldridge $5,500
- Vijay Singh $5,300
