The event formerly known as the Crowne Plaza is the last stop in our Texas swing. This is an invitational tournament, so the field is limited to 120 players. This means about 60% of players will make the cut, compared to the usual rate of 45-50%. When making lineups this week you may want to take more shots down low since making the cut is more feasible for them than usual. You also want to target birdie makers over players who par more often. The field is relatively weak with the BMW PGA Championship in England attracting some PGA players overseas, but there are a few big names in Spieth, Scott, and Kuchar. With DraftKings releasing Euro Tour DFS for the BMW this week contests have been slashed across the board. It’s a bummer but I guess it makes sense with the new shiny object to play with.
The event has been held at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth since 1946. It’s a7,200 yard par 70 with trees lining narrow fairways and bentgrass greens well protected by bunkers and hazards. Ball striking is going to be critical here along with Scrambling, Par 4 Scoring, Greens in Regulation, Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, and Sand Save %. Long drivers with poor accuracy can get into trouble in the native area, so if you’re going to pick a bomber make sure they’re a decent scrambler. Driving Accuracy is going to be really important this week to navigate narrow fairways, but remember that some pure accuracy guys who don’t hit long are just going to par a lot and not get as many birdie/eagle bonuses. This is fine in cash games but something to consider in tournaments.
Make sure to check our my complete Dean and DeLuca Invitational Cheat Sheet Here!
High End Plays
Adam Scott $11,300
With a semi-struggling Spieth way overpriced at $12,800 I expect tons of people to fade him for Scott. He’s by far the top player popping out in my research. 10/10 cuts made on the year and no poor finishes since January. In fact he’s the only player I’ve seen with double digit birdies in every event this year and he’s averaging a ridiculous 17.8 birdies per tournament. That’s over 50 DK points in birdies alone. He leads the field in Proximity to Hole and SG:Tee to Green and that’s gonna be important. He’s a former winner in 2014 and he’s never missed the cut.
Matt Kuchar $11,000
Kuchar followed up a 3rd place finish at Sawgrass with another 3rd at the Byron Nelson last week. He’s a super consistent cut-maker who’s in hot form and he always plays well in Texas. He missed his last cut here but was T2 the year before. He makes for a nice cash game anchor if you don’t want to go with Scott, and his 3 top 10s in 4 events show he clearly has GPP upside.
Zach Johnson $10,700
Colonial is yet another course Zach is a horse at, but we’ve been getting bucked off the course horses lately it seems. When you think back to Keegan Bradley and Webb Simpson you could blame putting and having to switch from the long putter, so maybe that’s what happened with them. Johnson is an excellent putter, but with that said he’s not playing as well as he has in years past so keep that in mind. He finished in the top 10 in 6 of his last 7 tries here which is pretty hard to ignore. I do like playing him this week because of his accuracy with his driver and irons.
Patrick Reed $10,000
Even though he’s only played here twice with mediocre results, I love the course fit for his game. He’s an elite scrambler and since everyone’s going to end up in the rough/bunker/native area, you might as well go with the guys who are good at getting out of it. He’s been in great form all season long and he’s a player who can contend at any event.
Chris Kirk $9,700
Last year’s winner and yearly contender at Colonial. He’s never missed a cut here and his recent form has been getting a lot better over the last few months. He has a well balanced statistical game with scrambling sticking out as his strong point. His weakness is birdie making, which limits his GPP appeal. I recommend him as a strong, safe cash game option.
Kevin Chappell $9,600
Chappell has been red hot lately, posting 4 top 10 finishes in his last 6 starts, two of them being 2nd place finishes behind Jason Day. That in combination with his good course history here could make him one of the most popular plays in tournaments. He’s been known to randomly blow cuts so he could make for a good fade in GPP but chances are he’s gonna find himself up there on the leaderboard again. He makes a ton of birdies and his tee to green game is great, the only weakness in his game is putting.
Kevin Na $9,200
It;s no surprise Na has such a strong course history here, this course is tailored to his par 4 scoring, scrambling style of play. He just finished 4th at Heritage- a somewhat similar course- but missed the cut on the nose at The Players. He’s a great cash game play because of his nose for top 20s, I just don’t know if he has the top-5 upside you want for GPP.
Mid Range Plays
Danny Lee $8,800
The Texas native just posted a top 10 at his home course, and he gets to stay in the area to play at another course he’s had success at. He’s come into really good form over his last 3 starts, and his game is perfect for the course. He’s 5th on Tour in Sand Save % and he’s a good scrambler in general. He drives with accuracy, but despite that he still birdies at a nice 22% clip. He’s one of my favorite plays of the week, making my cash team and plenty of my tournament squads.
Bill Haas $8,700
Haas is another strong play in this range. He has 3 top 25s in 4 starts here and he’s been in good form this season. He’s an excellent scrambler, but his sand save % fell to 166th on Tour. Last year he was ranked top 10 in that stat so I wonder if something happened to him there. That’s the only real concern with him statistically. He hits tons of greens, has great accuracy, and he’s a great scorer on par 4s.
Jason Dufner $8,400
Dufner is an interesting play this week. He’s an accurate ball striker, which is what you want, but he’s a bad scrambler. If the course is playing soft and he’s hitting greens- like he does 70% of the time- his poor scrambling won’t bother him at all, but if conditions get tough he could get in some trouble. He has 2 2nd place finishes here in the last 4 years, so he’s had success before. I’m still keeping him in GPP only despite his cut making prowess, just because of scrambling concerns.
Colt Knost $8,3000
Knost has been one of the best cut-makers all season long and recently his form went from hot to super hot with a 3rd at Sawgrass and a 4th last week at the Byron Nelson. He’s 2nd on Tour at Driving Accuracy and that’s going to be important here. He’s also one of the best in the field at proximity and scrambling. I expect him to be popular everywhere, there’s a lot of buzz on him after last week. I’d lock him into cash games 100%.
Ryan Palmer $8,100
Palmer burned everyone last week despite being in good form and at a local Texas course he’s had success at in the past. Last year at this event he pulled the same thing, missing the cut after a string of great finishes here. These factors should keep people off of him, but I think he makes for a wise contrarian play in tournaments because he barely missed the cut on the dot last week and could bounce back and finish well.
Boo Weekley $7,400
Boo Weekley may be the best example of a guy who just happens to play well on certain courses consistantly. This appears to be one of those courses and he won the whole thing in 2013. He started the season in terrible form but he’s made 6 of his last 7 cuts recently, including a T16 at The Players. He’s similar to Dufner in having great accuracy and proximity but shaky scrambling.
Bryce Molder $7,100
DraftKings still refuses to acknowledge Molder’s hot streak, which consists of 8 straight made cuts, 2 top 10s, and a T12 at The Players. In addition to form, he’s made 5 of 6 cuts here including a T5. He’s a very accurate driver and ball striker, ranks 3rd in the field in Scrambling, and ranks 5th in the field in Sand Save %. He should be wildly popular due to his price in GPP and especially in cash games.
Value Plays
- Chez Reavie $7,300
- Jerry Kelly $7,200
- Fredrik Jacobson $7,100
- William McGirt $7,000
- Daniel Summerhays $7,000
- Cameron Tringale $7,000
- Kyle Reifers $7,000
- Sean O’Hair $6,900
- John Huh $6,900
- Lucas Glover $6,800
- Emiliano Grillo $6,700
- Tom Hoge $6,700
- Adam Hadwin $6,600
- Jhonnatan Vegas $6,600
- Jon Curran $6,600
- Martin Laird $6,500
- Chad Campbell $6,500
- Martin Piller $6,400
- David Hearn $6,400
- David Toms $6,300
- Ben Crane $6,200
- Brendon De Jonge $6,000
- Si Woo Kim $5,900
- Bronson Burgoon $5,900
- Johnson Wagner $5,800
