The tour is headed through Texas once more and this week it’s off to Dallas for the Byron Nelson at TPC Four Seasons Las Colinas. It’s only been played here since 2007 so disregard any course history from before then. It’s a 7,000 yard par 70 with only 2 par 5s, 7 par 4s from 400-450 yards, and all 4 par 3s within the range of 175-200 yards. Water comes into play in 50% of the holes, usually around the greens or alongside one side of the fairway. Although rainy forecasts look to give bombers an edge early, (especially players who hit the ball with a high Apex Height ) Driving Accuracy can only help keep the ball out of the water. The field is weak in strength with only 2 stars in Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson showing up and only 14 of the top 50 golfers in the world rankings. The salary pricing is much sharper than last week, so it will be harder to fit studs on your lineup.
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My complete Byron Nelson Championship Cheat Sheet is posted! It includes: Recent Form, Key Stats, Course Histories and Vegas Odds for each Golfer. Check it out here: Byron Nelson Championship Cheat Sheet
High End Plays
Jordan Spieth $12,500
Spieth is probably the most expensive player ever to come off of a missed cut. He actually has a long course history here dating back to 2010 when he was a teenager and he’s made the cut every time. His home roots are in Texas which is probably the only thing keeping him in this tournament year after year. After his debut 16th he’s never finished better than 30th, which is pretty unlike him. 15/2 odds on a 12.5k guy isn’t very encouraging, but with such a weak field he still has a chance to run away with it. He putted horribly last week which is concerning, and plenty of people will be off of him after last week, especially in favor of the next guy on the list:
Dustin Johnson $11,900
DJ is probably tied with Keegan Bradley for top course horse. He hasn’t won yet but he has 4 top 10 finishes in his last 5 starts with 0 cuts missed. He’s one of the longest bombers on tour so he has an advantage if the fairways get soggy and don’t roll. He’s in great form this season with no missed cuts. His top 30 last week was encouraging considering he’s never been very successful at Sawgrass in the past. I expect him to be highly owned in GPP and cash and it’s up to you if you want to fade him and pray for a MC or go overweight on him.
Matt Kuchar $10,500
Kuchar has a long history of making the cut here at Four Seasons. Since the tournament switched to TPC Las Colinas, he’s never finished worse than 42nd and has 3 top 15 finishes. He been his usual cut making self this season and he’s fresh off a sneaky 3rd place finish last week at The Players. He’s a perfect anchor for a cash team.
Charl Schwartzel $10,100
All 3 par 3s on this course are between 175 and 200 yards and Schwartzel is tops in the field (and on tour) at scoring from this range and also 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. He’s much improved this year over last year including a win, and his course history is great outside of last year’s implosion after making the cut. He’s never highly owned due to his high salary which could make him a nice GPP option to go heavy on.
Core Plays
Marc Leishman $9,500
Leishman has made 5/7 cuts here and of the cuts he’s made he’s never finished worse than 12th. His cut last year can be explained by his wife being in a coma at the time. His head was not in the game and he played terribly during that span. He’s been playing well lately including hitting 2 eagles last week, and he looks good in every statistical category you’d want this week.
Jason Dufner $9,100
Dufner is a former winner here who’s made 5 straight cuts and a pair of 8th place finishes in that span. He’s above average in every stat except putting and that can come out of nowhere like when he won at the Career Builder earlier in the year. I’m not sure if I trust him in cash but I think he’s a great GPP play.
Ryan Palmer $8,900
Palmer is a Texas native and he actually missed his first 4 cuts here before posting a 2nd place finish. That started his current streak of 5 made cuts here with 3 top 10s and no finish worse than 33rd. He’s also been on quite the cut making streak this season, recently peaking with a T4 at the Texas Open. He’s a long bomber who hits a lot of greens with no real weakness in his overall game. I love him in cash this week.
Gary Woodland $8,500
Woodland is on a roll with 3 staight top 30 finishes and only 1 missed cut on the year. He’s also been on a roll at this tournament with 6 straight cuts made and a T7 in 2014. He’s perhaps the longest driver on tour so he’s another strong consideration if there’s a lot of rain.
Charles Howell III $8,200
CH3’s hot start to the season appears to have cooled off fast with 2 straight missed cuts. His last tournament here was a MC as well so that may have people off of him. Despite all of this, I like him this week for his proficiency from the key ranges of 175-200 and 400-450 yards.
Scott Piercy $8,000
Piercy is a cut-making machine, having only missed one cut all year. His recent performances include a T23 last week at The Players and a T29 at The Masters. If you look past a WD last year he’s had 3 straight quality finishes here including a T5. He can drive it with a mixture of distance and accuracy, and he makes a lot of birdies.
Keegan Bradley $7,900
Keegan started off his tournament history here with a win in 2011. Since then he has made every cut and hasn’t finished worse than 29th. He’s recovered from a bad start to the season and has made 3 of his last 4 cuts. He’s always had distance, but this year he’s hitting 65% of fairways, which is excellent for a bomber. He’s basically good at everything tee to green but he’s a bad (-.8 SG) putter. People will probably flock to him with that course history and such a cheap price.
Colt Knost $7,800
Knost is another native who’s from the Dallas area. He’s had to have played this course a bunch and he plays it every year with mixed results. He misses a lot of cuts, but he finished T10 last year and T21 in 2013. Right now he’s coming off a T3 at The Players and he’s been a consistent cut maker all season long. He’ll be a popular play in cash games. Despite the T3 last week, he usually doesn’t finish high after making the cut so his GPP upside could be limited.
Bryce Molder $7,600
Molder has in terrific form lately, making 7 straight cuts with 3 top 12 finishes in his last 4 events. He’s not long off the tee but he’s very accurate and scores well from the key distances. I don’t have a sense of whether he’ll be highly owned or not, but I don’t see a lot of good plays in his price range. He makes for a good cash game play.
Lucas Glover $7,500
Glover started the season hot, had a bit of a downswing with 3 missed cuts in a row, now he’s recovered with 5 straight missed cuts. He hit every round under par in his last event, finishing 8th at the Wells Fargo. Glover’s stats really stick out, especially his 72% GIR rate. He’s a good par 4 scorer and he’s fairly long off the tee. He’s by far the best in the field at avoiding bogeys, and that sounds like a good cash game play to me.
Tim Wilkinson $6,800
There are 7 par 4s on this course between 400 and 450 yards, and Wilkinson has the best scoring average of anyone in the field from that distance. He’s made his last 4 cuts including a T11 last time out at Wells Fargo, and he’s made 9/11 cuts on the year. He’s accurate with his irons, scrambles at a high rate, and has been putting really well. He doesn’t even have an avatar yet and he’s cheap, so I don’t see his ownership being any higher than 10% in tournaments.
Mark Hubbard $6,100
If you need someone to save salary and make the cut, Hubbard has been your guy all year long. He’s made 17 of 20 cuts on the year, similar to last year except this year he’s actually putting up some top 30 finishes. He’s just too cheap for how weak the field is and he’s more than likely going to make the cut. I like him in cash better than GPP because he pars a lot and birdies at under a 20% rate.
Value Plays
- Keegan Bradley $7,900
- Graham DeLaet $7,900
- Colt Knost $7,800
- Russell Henley $7,800
- Bryce Molder $7,600
- Lucas Glover $7,500
- John Senden $7,400
- Boo Weekley $7,400
- Brian Harman $7,200
- Jhonattan Vegas $7,100
- Sean O’Hair $7,000
- Scott Stallings $6,900
- Tim Wilkinson $6,800
- Alex Cejka $6,800
- Jerry Kelly $6,700
- Andrew Loupe $6,600
- Angel Cabrera $6,500
- Martin Flores $6,400
- Thomas Aiken $6,400
- Steve Wheatcroft $6,300
- Mark Hubbard $6,100
- Henrik Norlander $6,000
- Brice Garnett $5,700
