Last year the Valero Texas Open taught us all a very important lesson- be sure to check the weather. In a bit of a freak event, gale force winds ruined anyone who teed off early. (except for Matt Kuchar) Freak events seem to be the norm here in Texas. Last year Aaron Baddeley hit his tee shot on a par 4 out of bounds and then when he reteed his penalty shot, he managed to hit a rare par-4 hole in one that only counted as a birdie. Kevin Na also managed to card a 16 on a par four for what I think would be known as a duodecuple bogey. It’s a 7,400 yard long par 72 which makes it a very long course but Driving Distance doesn’t necessarily help as much as Strokes Gained Tee To Green. Proximity- particularly from longer iron distances- seems to be the key to success here along with strong Putting and Scrambling skills. There are several true course horses and I like using them as core plays as a baseline strategy. This event has only been held here since 2010 so disregard any course history before that.
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Core Plays
Jimmy Walker $12,200
The defending champion here has pretty much always played well here and the course really suits his game. He’s in good form still from the early season and his elite Birdie or Better % and Par 5 Birdie or Better % means lots of DK scoring from birdies and eagles. He’s not as dominant as a top salary player usually is but he’s still a really safe bet and should be a popular play. I’m going to be shying away from him for the next guy on the list, but it’s always important to consider the top guy.
Matt Kuchar $10,700
The first of many course horses, in 4 tries here he’s never finished worse than 22nd and came T4 in 2014. He’s in great form after last week and is a super safe bet to make the cut week to week. He’s short off the tee but still has a great Tee to Green game, and you know his short game is elite. His top 10 upside and consistency make him a cash game lock and GPP stud/anchor.
J.B. Holmes $10,100
J.B. had a very sneaky T4 finish at The Masters and has been riding a hot streak all season. He already has a win in Texas from last year and he has a few top 15 finishes here. He’s one of the longest off of the tee and he can scramble when he gets into trouble. His long iron proximity is good and his high birdie % makes him a strong GPP play.
Phil Mickelson $9,900
Phil had a rough time at The Masters, but outside of the major Phil has had one hell of a season. He’s near the top on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, his scrambling is elite as always, and his putter has been hot. I like using him liberally in GPP but there are a lot of plays this range like…
Bryson DeChambaeu $9,800
The fresh new Tour pro is off to a super hot start. His fantastic Sunday landed him a T4 at the Heritage and he’s made all 3 cuts so far this year- including The Masters. They’re all top 30 finishes too. He really seems like the next breakout type player and that explains the huge salary spike. Don’t play him in cash but make sure you have your fair share in GPP.
Charlie Hoffman $9,600
Probably the most noble of the course stallions- 6/6 cuts made with 6 top-13 finishes. Absolutely incredible. His history reminds me of Luke Donald’s from last week and he rewarded those who noticed with a T2. Hoffman typically isn’t a safe cash game type of player, but he clearly has a feel for this course and should be rostered very heavily in all formats.
Brendan Steele $8,800
A former winner and 3 time top-10 finisher since 2011. Steele has the exact skillset you’re looking for here and it’s no surprise he’s done so well. His long iron game fantastic, he drives the ball a mile with good accuracy for a bomber, he gets eagles on par 5s, and he birdies a lot. The main concern with him is his poor putting and scrambling. He’s missed a couple of cuts in a row but they were at courses I don’t think his game worked well at. He’s probably too risky for cash but great for GPP.
Daniel Summerhays $8,300
Yet another course horse and this one has been galloping lately- 3 straight top 10 finishes. Summerhays is generally a cut-maker with limited upside but his course history shows that he can shoot really low here. His stats are mostly average but he hits a lot of birdies and can putt well.
High End Plays
- Jimmy Walker
- Branden Grace
- Zach Johnson
- Matt Kuchar (cash)
- J.B. Holmes
- Phil Mickelson
- Bryson DeChambaeu
- Charlie Hoffman (cash)
- Billy Horschel
- Chris Kirk
Mid Range Plays
- Brendan Steele
- Ryan Palmer (cash)
- Daniel Summerhays (cash)
- William McGirt
- Freddie Jacobson
- Kevin Streelman
- Chez Reavie
- Si Woo Kim
- Kyle Reifers (My top pick to hit the greens, hehe)
- Bryce Molder
- Aaron Baddeley
- Patrick Rodgers
- Jhonattan Vegas (cash)
- Jerry Kelly
- Cameron Tringale
Value Plays
- Luke List
- Will MacKenzie
- Chad Campbell
- George McNeill
- Scott Pinckney
- Michael Thompson
- Andrew Loupe
- Seung-Yul Noh (cash)
- Cameron Percy (cash)
- Justin Leonard
- Tyler Aldridge
- Bronson Burgoon
- Brice Garnett
- Matt Every
- John Merrick
Super Scrub Plays
- Martin Piller
- Frank Lickliter II
- Billy Hurley III
- Brian Gay
Cheat Sheet is posted up in the Slack channel and you can pm me with any questions.
