Welcome to a new NFL season and the return of “Part the Cloud”. For our new readers, this feature is named after the “Cloud” variation of Zone coverage. It is also where we’ll take a deep dive into defensive coverage schemes and how we can exploit them to find hidden gem Wide Receivers.
The Film Room
Each week we’ll look backward to ensure the process was sound. Sometimes things just happen but as long as we are seeing it the right way, we’ll get there in the end.
- Cedric Tillman (DK: 3.68x, FD: 2.9x) – He saw 8 targets and caught 5 of them, including Flacco’s only TD. The offense, as a whole, was inefficient. In a week where there were few showstopping receiver performances, he didn’t kill you; but, he didn’t win you anything either. I do think we’ll see him in this feature again soon, though.
- Jameson Williams (DK: 1.2x, FD: 0.77x) – He caught 4 of his 5 targets but he didn’t do anything with them. It was a bad day for the Lions all around, as they slept their way through a division loss. Hopefully he can do better than 23 yards, but not too much to take away here.
- Dontayvion Wicks (DK: 1.47x, FD: 0.82x) – The hope here was that Green Bay would help Reed with the pain management and lean more on Wicks. Reed ended up being the number 1 receiver, still, as Green Bay kept the normal pass-catching hierarchy intact (Reed, Doubs, Kraft). The encouraging fact was that Wicks caught both of his targets downfield for a combined 30 yards. As of this writing, Reed has hurt his collarbone and will get some much needed rest. Wicks has a big opportunity moving forward.
11 Personnel
Three WR sets are the most common usage in the game so it’s only fitting we follow suit.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DK: $7000 (Projected Ownership: 8.32%), FD: $8000 (Projected Ownership: 6.95%)
“Sun god” is always a solid DK play thanks to his volume, but this week’s matchup makes him especially appealing on both sites. The Bears’ starting slot corner Kyler Gordon is out, meaning St. Brown will likely draw Nick McCloud — ranked 95th out of 114 CBs in coverage by PFF. This is a top-5 WR spot on the slate. The stars are aligned.
Devonta Smith
DK: $5600 (Projected Ownership: 9.96%), FD: $6400 (Projected Ownership: 7.89%)
With Dallas Goedert out and attention drawn to A.J. Brown’s juicy matchup, Smith is flying under the radar. He’ll be covered by Chammari Conner, a zone-slot safety who ranked 88th (out of 102) in coverage last season. The Chiefs just got torched by Herbert — those coverage issues won’t be fixed in a week. Smith thrives on horizontal routes, which Kansas City has struggled to defend. He’s being overlooked, and that’s our gain.
Josh Downs
DK: $4600 (Projected Ownership: 0.87%), FD: $5200 (Projected Ownership: 0.83%)
On paper, this looks like a scary matchup, but if you’re bold enough to look deeper, you’ll find a potential gem. The Colts are home underdogs — a perfect spot to expect volume. Downs faces Ja’Quan McMillian, who allowed a 73% catch rate last year. Denver has been “bend but don’t break” when it comes to pass defense. They’ve refused to break. Downs is Indy’s best separator in short spaces and can force the issue.
In Summary
There are other guys that I have my eye on but these were spots that shone bright. If you have any questions for me about the process or other players, my name is TreyJ989 in the channels. Feel free to tag me. Thanks for reading. Let’s make some bold moves this week!