Top VALUE Picks | NFL DFS Winning Strategies for Week 5 Draftkings and Fanduel Success

Kickstart your excitement for Week 5 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFSbets on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.

Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) runs out onto the field during the pregame for the N.F.L. game between the Detroit Lions and the Seattle Seahawks at Ford Field in Detroit, Monday, Sept. 30, 2024.

Top Value Quarterbacks:

Deshaun Watson ($5.3k at Washington Commanders)

For the second week in a row, the fearless leader of the number one value at quarterback… none other than, Deshaun Watson. He’s just not good but the price tag continues to be worth a look, especially in a matchup with the Commanders who have been torched through the air this season. Washington ranks 32nd, dead last, in pass EPA and 30th in PFF ranking. He has just enough rushing upside as well to give him a floor. Stacking options include Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and David Njoku. The Domination Station has him projected for 15.7 DraftKings points giving him 2.96x his current price tag.

Geno Smith ($5.9k vs. New York Giants)

Geno was awesome on Monday Night Football against the Lions. He had a career high 395 passing hards and attempted 56(!) passes. The Giants are below average against the pass this season, but I do worry about him getting game-scripted out in the second half. The nice thing with Geno is he has some elite stacking options with guys like DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett. We have him him projected for 17.24 DraftKings points giving him a value multiplier of 2.92x his current salary.

Anthony Richardson ($6.0k at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Richardson got banged up mid-game last week and missed the rest of the game, but sounds like he’s not expected to miss any time. He hasn’t looked good from the eye-test this season or on paper, outside of that crazy pass he made in week one off his back foot. That said, this is about as good of a spot as he could ask for. The Jags are getting ripped apart by opposing pass games this season and Richardson actually played well against them last season with 21.9 DraftKings points. The rushing upside is still elite and if he can get the ball to his weapons like Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce/Adonai Mitchell he could be in for a great week. Not to mention, they’ll likely be without Jonathan Taylor, so could look to pass more of planned quarterback runs for Richardson. Our lineup optimizer has Williams projected for 17.08 DraftKings points giving him 2.85x his price tag.

Click here for full Quarterback projections: Domination Station Optimizer

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Running Backs:

Josh Jacobs ($6.4k Los Angeles Rams)

Jacobs looked good in his limited attempts last week against the Vikings, but the volume just wasn’t there due to the Packers going down 28-0 in the first half. With the big lead, the Packers opted to go pass-heavy and had to abandon the run. I doubt they get down by 28 points at any point again this season, so I’m looking past the game log and liking how he looked. He gets a great matchup in this one against the Rams who rank 29th in rush EPA on the season. This is a game where I expect the Packers to get up early and often, so we could see a heavy dose of Jacobs in the second half of this one. The Domination Station has him projected for 14.6 DraftKings points giving him 2.28x his price tag.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6.0k vs. Miami Dolphins)

Stevenson has been completely game script-dependent this season, he had at least 17 DraftKings points in the first two weeks where they had a +3 point margin. In the last two weeks, the Patriots were -28 and he didn’t go over 9.5 DraftKings points in either game. This game has a one-point spread and the lowest implied total on the slate at 35.5, so the opportunity should be there for him in this one. We’ve seen the Dolphins get beat up on the ground this season sinking 29th in DvP against opposing running backs. We have him projected for 13.2 DraftKings points giving him 2.2x his current price tag.

Kyren Williams ($7.6k vs. Green Bay Packers)

Williams has been as consistent as they come with at least 15 DraftKings points in three straight weeks. He’s one of the very few true workhorses in the NFL, so the floor is extremely high. It’s not a bad matchup either, I still think you can run on the Packers. Also, the Rams don’t have any offensive weapons left with Kupp, Puka, and Higbee out again in this one. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 16.68 DraftKings points giving him 2.19x his price tag.

Click here for full Runningback projections: Domination Station Optimizer

Value Priced Wide Receivers:

Deebo Samuel Sr. ($6.8k vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Deebo returned after a one-week absence and was fine against the Patriots. The Niners beat up the Patriots pretty easily, but the snaps were there, so he wasn’t limited. He has double-digit fantasy points in each game this season and gets an elite matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona ranks 31st in passing PFF on the season, so I expect the Niners to do whatever they want offensively here. The Domination Station has him projected for 15.72 DraftKings points giving him 2.31x his current price tag.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5.8k vs. New York Giants)

I love JSN, I just think he’s an awesome possession receiver in this offense helping stretch the field for Metcalf and Lockett. He has at least 12 targets in two of his last three games and makes for a great one-off or stacking piece with Geno Smith. It’s a really nice value stack with Geno ranking in the top three in point-per-dollar as well. We have him projected for 13.03 DraftKings points giving him 2.25x his price tag.

Diontae Johnson ($6.1k at Chicago Bears)

Johnson was pretty chalky last week and he paid off in a big way. In two games with Andy Dalton, he’s averaging 25.25 DraftKings points per game with at least 13 targets in each game. It’s clear Andy Dalton is going to look his way and can actually get him the ball, unlike Bryce Young. It’s not the best matchup, but it’s also not the worst against the Chicago Bears. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 13.66 DraftKings points giving him 2.24x his price tag.

Click here for full Wide Receiver projections: Domination Station Optimizer

Tight Ends:

George Kittle ($5.6k vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Kittle leads the tight-end position with 14.4 DraftKings points per game and will look great again in this one. As I mentioned Deebo Samuel, the matchup is elite against the Cardinals and the Niners should be able to move the ball with ease. He has a 20% target share which should continue to remain steady, if not climb, as long as Christian McCaffery is out. The Domination Station has him projected for 12.58 DraftKings points giving him a value of 2.25x his price tag.

Mike Gesicki ($3.4k vs. Baltimore Ravens)

Gesicki was invisible last week against the Panthers after a solid weeks two and three. If I’m being honest, I don’t like Gesicki, even at this price tag. He played just 33% of snaps and I think Erick All Jr. becomes the TE1, if he hasn’t already. The matchup also isn’t the best against the Ravens, I just don’t see myself going here, especially if he draws any sort of ownership. We have him projected for 6.94 DraftKings points giving him 2.04x his current price tag.

Noah Fant ($3.6k vs New York Giants)

Fant is another tight-end I don’t really love, but I do get it, the position stinks this season. If I’m going to the Gesicki/Fant range though, I may just go down even further to Erick All Jr. who I mentioned with Gesicki. He has just a 9.7% target share in an offense with a ton of weapons. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 7.28 DraftKings points giving him 2.02x his current price tag.

Click here for full Tight End projections: Domination Station Optimizer

Value Defense/Special Teams:

Washington Commanders $3.0k – It feels kind of ugly considering they’re a pretty bad defense, but Deshaun Watson is getting sacked like it’s going out of style. He hangs onto the ball too long and turns the ball over, the Commaners look good here.

Denver Broncos $2.9k – Denver shut down the Jets offense in the rain last week and get a great matchup against the Raiders in this one. I can’t imagine Davante Adams plays another snap for the Raiders, so that hurts their offense as well.

Carolina Panthers $2.4k – The Panthers are another team that get a matchup with a quarterback taking a bunch of sacks. The Bears offensive line isn’t good and Caleb Williams will be turnover prone as well, for the cheapest defense on the slate, I like it.