Kickstart your excitement for Week 1 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFSbets on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.
Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) passes the ball for a 2-pt conversion during game action against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023, in Indianapolis.
Top Value Quarterbacks:
Jayden Daniels ($5.7k at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
We kick off the NFL season with a rookie quarterback, and the 2nd overall pick in the NFL draft. You’ll notice a trend with the quarterbacks on this list, as all three are either rookies or a second-year guy (coming next). The matchup with the Bucs may not seem like anything special at first glance, but they ranked 25th in DvP against the quarterback position last season. The upside with Daniels comes with his ability on the ground which we saw in his time at LSU where he rushed for over 1100 yards and is fantasy gold at the position. The Domination Station has him projected for 19.02 DraftKings points giving him 3.34x his current price tag.
Anthony Richardson ($6.3k vs. Houston Texans)
Anthony Richardson is the only guy of the quarterbacks we’ll talk about that we’ve seen actual NFL experience on before he injured his shoulder in week five and cut his rookie season short in 2023. That said, he was electric for fantasy in the three weeks we saw of him, averaging just over 23 DraftKings points per game in those games. He’s another guy where we have elite rushing upside with four rushing touchdowns in those games. It’s a decent matchup against this Texans defense as well along with an implied total of 49 which is third third-highest on the week. Expect the Texans offense to go out and score, meaning the Colts will have to throw to keep up. We have him him projected for 20.14 DraftKings points giving him a value multiplier of 3.20x his current salary.
Caleb Williams ($5.9k vs. Tennesse Titans)
I touched on the 2nd overall pick in the draft, so let’s touch on the top overall pick and the future of the Chicago Bears. He has the best matchup of the three quarterbacks I’ve touched against the Titans who ranked 24th in passing DVOA last season. Not to mention, he has some elite weapons on the outside with guys like DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and fellow rookie, Rome Odunze. All three make for intriguing stacking options to pair up with Williams. Our lineup optimizer has Williams projected for 18.3 DraftKings points giving him 3.1x his price tag.
Click here for full Quarterback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
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Running Backs:
Rachaad White ($6.3k vs. Washington Commanders)
White was sneaky great last season, he ranked 4th in PPR scoring at the position in 2023 averaging 16 DraftKings points per game. He comes with a great floor and ceiling due to the pass-catching upside he has in this Bucs offense. Baker Mayfield looks to dump off to the runningbacks and tight ends quite a bit and he gets an elite matchup against a bad Commanders defense. Washington ranked 19th in run DVOA last season, so expect a very solid game from White to kick off his 2024 campaign. The Domination Station has him projected for 15.16 DraftKings points giving him 2.41x his price tag.
Kenneth Walker II ($6.1k vs. Denver Broncos)
I love me some Kenneth Walker this season and that starts right away in week one. I actually have a sprinkle of him to lead the league in rushing at +3000 on DraftKings sportsbook. He doesn’t have quite the receiving upside that White has, but it’s not non-existent which gives him a really nice floor at the very least. He gets an elite matchup against the Broncos who ranked 31st in run DVOA and RB DvP in 2023…indicating easy value to pay off his price tag. We have him projected for 14.38 DraftKings points giving him 2.36x his current price tag.
Jerome Ford ($5.5k vs. Dallas Cowboys)
Ford comes in as the cheapest runningback of the three but looks great from a point-per-dollar perspective. He’s got the backfield mostly to himself with Nick Chubb still recovering from his knee injury and looked good in that role last season. He averaged 12.5 DraftKings points per game but did show some volatility throughout the season which is to be expected in this price range. It’s not a good matchup against a good Dallas Cowboys frontline, but the workload is enough to garner some interest at this price tag. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 12.79 DraftKings points giving him 2.33x his price tag.
Click here for full Runningback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Value Priced Wide Receivers:
Rome Odunze ($4.0k vs. Tennessee Titans)
I touched on his quarterback in the value quarterbacks section, so you get a really cheap stacking option if you want to go with Caleb/Odunze to start your roster construction. This was one of the best top-end receiver drafts since the 2021 NFL draft and Rome is right up there with guys like Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers. He’s dirt cheap because of the situation he’s in… he has a rookie quarterback, albeit, the top pick in the draft, and has some competition for targets with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen at the wide receiver position. That said, the talent is there and at this price tag, I like taking the shot in a great matchup against a terrible Titans secondary. The Domination Station has him projected for 10.69 DraftKings points giving him 2.67x his current price tag.
Christian Kirk ($5.5k at Miami Dolphins)
Kirk comes in as the WR1 in this offense and was their most reliable receiver when healthy last season. The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley to free agency but they did draft Brian Thomas in the first round and went out and got Gabe Davis in free agency. That said, I still think he’s the top option, at least to start, in this passing game. It’s a pretty solid matchup against the Dolphins as well, Miami ranked 23rd in WR DvP in 2023 and with a high-flying offense, I would expect the Jags to have to throw to keep up in this one. We have him projected for 13.46 DraftKings points giving him 2.45x his price tag.
Drake London ($6.0k vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
The sexy underpriced, value pick for fantasy drafts around the world, Drake London! He was solid last season with a clown car at quarterback all season long. The Falcons went out and got Kirk Cousins in the offseason, and say what you want about Kirk’s quarterback ability, but he creates some DFS monsters. I would expect a big season for this Falcons offense and Drake London, in particular. It’s an average matchup on paper, but the volume should be there for him to pay off this price tag. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 14.59 DraftKings points giving him 2.43x his price tag.
Click here for full Wide Receiver projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Tight Ends:
Kyle Pitts ($4.6k vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
I just touched on Drake London in the wide receiver section and a lot of that carries over to Kyle Pitts at the tight end position. Yes, he’s been a massive disappointment since coming out of the draft, but that’s mostly due to the hype surrounding him. The opportunity was there for him last season, he ranked 1st in deep targets, air yards, air yards share, and ADOT last season, but the Falcons’ quarterback carousel just couldn’t get him the ball. Kirk Cousins should be able to change that and he’s dirt cheap with massive upside. The Domination Station has him projected for 11.59 DraftKings points giving him a value of 2.52x his price tag.
Dalton Kincaid ($5.8k vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Kincaid was great in his rookie season last year and could be the top receiving option in this Bills offense coming into the season. Buffalo lost Stefon Diggs in the offseason leaving their receiving core in shambles. They did draft Keon Coleman and picked up guys like Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the offseason, but we know what we’re getting out of those free-agent guys. He brings a great floor/ceiling combination to the table and will be a guy I have an interest in to start the season. We have him projected for 12.87 DraftKings points giving him 2.22x his current price tag.
Evan Engram ($5.5k at Miami Dolphins)
Engram was as consistent as they came at the position last season. It helped that Christian Kirk missed a good chunk of the season, but I don’t think that target share is going anywhere to start the season. He ranked 1st in targets and routes ran at the position last season, so again, the floor/ceiling combo is there in a great matchup against the Dolphins. Miami ranked 23rd in TE DvP in 2023 and as I mentioned with Kirk, I think the Jags will have to throw to keep up with the Dolphins offense. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 12.08 DraftKings points giving him 2.2x his current price tag.
Click here for full Tight End projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Value Defense/Special Teams:
Los Angeles Chargers $2.9k – The matchup is awesome against the Las Vegas Raiders who are throwing Gardner Minshew out there at quarterback. The Raiders have an implied total of right around 19 points and there are some playmakers on this Chargers defense.
Buffalo Bills $3.0k – This game has a higher implied total at 48.5, but the matchup isn’t terrible and the Bills can rack up defensive points. They have the pick-6 specialist in Rasul Douglas and didn’t have a negative point game once in 2023, nice floor and ceiling option at a nice value price tag.
Carolina Panthers $2.4k – You get what you pay for in this range, but I think you can do worse down here. The matchup is great against the Saints who are throwing out washed-up Derek Carr at quarterback. The Saints offense was a rough watch last season and I don’t think that gets better this season.
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