Top VALUE Picks | NFL DFS Winning Strategies for Week 4 Draftkings and Fanduel Success

Kickstart your excitement for Week 4 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFSbets on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.

Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!

Sep 23, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first half at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Top Value Quarterbacks:

Deshaun Watson ($5.4k at Las Vegas Raiders)

Well… leading the week off by writing about Deshaun Watson certainly feels gross. That said, even though he was pretty bad in real life, he had a decent fantasy week against the Giants in week 3. He gets a great matchup in this one against the Raiders who just got diced up by Andy Dalton and the Panthers. Vegas ranks dead last in PFF against the pass on the season, so if there were ever a matchup for Watson to get it done, this is it. He has decent stacking options with Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and potentially David Njoku if he’s able to return from injury. The Domination Station has him projected for 18.21 DraftKings points giving him 3.37x his current price tag.

Jayden Daniels ($6.5k at Arizona Cardinals)

Daniels looked awesome on Monday Night Football against the Bengals and now has as least 28 DraftKings points in two of three weeks on the season. He gets another great matchup in this one going on the road to Arizona who ranks 30th in PFF against the pass on the season. Daniels brings elite rushing upside as well, although word out of Commanders’ camp is they want him to become more of a pocket passer when it’s there, but the rushing ability isn’t going anywhere. You can play him naked at QB or stack him up with Terry McLaurin, the rest of the pass-catchers, outside of the RBs, are a bit of a reach, but he looks great in all formats. We have him him projected for 21.17 DraftKings points giving him a value multiplier of 3.26x his current salary.

Caleb Williams ($5.6k vs. Las Angeles Rams)

Williams cracks the top value’s list for the second straight week and finally put up some decent fantasy numbers last week against the Colts. The offensive line is still an issue, but it kind of takes away their running game and funnels them into passing. He attempted 52 passes in week 3 and has some great stacking options with Moore, Allen (if he plays), Odunze, and even Kmet. The price tag hasn’t moved, I think you can do a lot worse than Williams at this price tag in a great matchup against the Rams who just got tore up by Brock Purdy without any weapons. Our lineup optimizer has Williams projected for 17.52 DraftKings points giving him 3.13x his price tag.

Click here for full Quarterback projections: Domination Station Optimizer

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Running Backs:

Breece Hall ($7.8k vs. Denver Broncos)

Anytime we get a high-priced guy also popping as a top value, it generally leads to success, and that’s what we get with Breece in this one. He’s been a true workhorse this season with at least 18 DraftKings points in each game and has looked the part. The matchup also sets up great against a Broncos team that ranks 27th in PFF against the run on the season. The Domination Station has him projected for 19.46 DraftKings points giving him 2.49x his price tag.

Chuba Hubbard ($5.7k vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

Chuba had a huge week in the first week under Andy Dalton with 26 total touches, six coming through the air. He only played 58% of snaps, so the touches are impressive, but he’s pretty clearly the RB1 on this team with Miles Sanders being the pass-game back until Jonathan Brooks is available. The Bengals have been solid enough against the run, but I think the price is good enough where Hubbard makes plenty of sense as a mid-range RB this week. We have him projected for 13.72 DraftKings points giving him 2.41x his current price tag.

Bijan Robinson ($7.4k at New Orleans Saints)

This coaching staff was damn frustrating on Sunday Night… when it’s crunch time, give it to Bijan, NOT TYLER ALLEGIER. Rant over, but Bijan is too cheap here, he’s the 5th highest-priced RB on the slate which may be warranted relative to the production of some of these other guys. For some reason, this Atlanta team just loves giving the ball to anyone but their best athletes. That said, Robinson is clearly the workhorse of the backfield and can get it done in the passing game as well. It’s a middle-of-the-road matchup, but I love the ceiling at this price tag. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 17.15 DraftKings points giving him 2.32x his price tag.

Click here for full Runningback projections: Domination Station Optimizer

Value Priced Wide Receivers:

Brandon Aiyuk ($6.4k at New England Patriots)

It was the Jauan Jennings show in week 3 even though I absolutely loved me some Aiyuk, along with most of the public. Jennings proved the targets are available with how banged up this offense is with guys like CMC, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle out. Kittle may return in this one, but I don’t think it matters all that much. Aiyuk is too good to be held down for much longer and I think he’s got a breakout week on the horizon. Aiyuk still saw 10 targets last week, he just didn’t do a ton with them. Great matchup here against the Patriots who were pretty terrible last week and is probably a bottom-three team in the league. The Domination Station has him projected for 19.25 DraftKings points giving him 3.01x his current price tag.

Diontae Johnson ($5.6k vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

I played a ton of Johnson and Thielen in the afternoon slate last week and it worked out well. With Andy Dalton in there, he’s going to be able to get the ball to these guys with much more efficiency than Bryce Young was able to. Thielen is now out for the next few games as well, so Johnson could get peppered with targets in this one. Dalton loves these possession-type guys and I would expect a ton of targets from Johnson again here. The matchup is great and the price is even better, load up on Diontae here. We have him projected for 16.78 DraftKings points giving him 3.0x his price tag.

Rashee Rice ($7.3k at Los Angeles Chargers)

Rice is just straight-up good, oh and so is his quarterback. Rice is third in the league in targets, first in receptions, and third in fantasy points per game, but he’s not priced like it. He’s the number one option for a team that has Mahomes throwing him the ball, I’ll go right back to the well with him in this one especially with Travis Kelce coming into the season looking like he did last season. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 18.84 DraftKings points giving him 2.58x his price tag.

Click here for full Wide Receiver projections: Domination Station Optimizer

Tight Ends:

Hunter Henry ($4.2k at San Francisco 49ers)

Henry has sneakily been great to start the season given his price tag. He has a 25.4% target share and is fourth in the league among TEs in overall targets. This position has stunk all season long so I’m more likely to just save money until proven otherwise with guys like Henry. The red-zone upside is there as well with him coming in with a 22.2% red-zone target share. As long as Jakoby Brissett is the starter, he’s going to look to go to him. The Domination Station has him projected for 11.27 DraftKings points giving him a value of 2.68x his price tag.

Mike Gesicki ($3.5k at Carolina Panthers)

Look, he’s not a sexy option, I get it, but he’s been fairly good to start the season. Back-to-back weeks with at least 8 DraftKings which is pretty solid with how the rest of the position has looked. He probably sees the targets drop at least a little with Tee Higgins back in there, but he’s playing about half the snaps and is the receiving specialist at the position for the Bengals. He’s also dirt cheap. We have him projected for 7.87 DraftKings points giving him 2.25x his current price tag.

Dallas Goedert ($5.1k at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

GOOD GOEDERT! What a week from Dallas Goedert last week going for 10 catches and 170 receiving yards, he also fell a hair short of a TD. He could realistically be the top option for Hurts in week 4 as well with AJ Brown battling a hamstring injury and Devonta Smith in concussion protocol. If both guys miss, he’s going to be chalky, he may be chalky regardless due to the upside, but he’s going to look great regardless of who’s in and who’s out. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 11.08 DraftKings points giving him 2.17x his current price tag.

Click here for full Tight End projections: Domination Station Optimizer

Value Defense/Special Teams:

Carolina Panthers $2.4k – The cheapest defense on the week going up against the Bengals who have been extremely sub-par on the season. I’m not going to blow your pants off with any crazy stats here, it’s a price thing.

Denver Broncos $2.5k – This is another price play going up against Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. I’ve never loved playing defenses against Aaron Rodgers-lead offense because he simply doesn’t turn the ball over, but again if it makes your lineup work, I don’t hate it.

Green Bay Packers $3.0k – I loved this defense coming into the season under their new defensive coordinator and they’ve looked great. They are second on the slate with 13 DraftKings points per game and even though the Vikings have been good, their offensive line stinks. The Packers had eight sacks last game and lead the league in turnovers. Sam Darnold has been good, but they’ve got enough playmakers to make him pay at home.