An 11-game slate tonight with some high-total games present some unique opportunities. Where can we go to get different? Where can we go heavier? Let’s figure it out. The focus of this article is to sort through the myriad of options on larger slates and find not only some solid foundational plays but also some spots that could go overlooked. We focus on stacks that are solid for small-field and SE as well as overlooked spots for large-field GPPs, and we discuss players that have good past history vs. the pitchers they’re facing. Our Discord strategy rooms are incredibly active. Hop in and join the discussion!
FIVE DFS MLB Stacks
Colorado Rockies (5.61 IRT)
The Rockies will be popular tonight for two reasons: one, they’re in Coors, and two, they face Dallas Keuchel. No reason to not incorporate them into your tournament lines as the game has an 11.5 O/U, and Keuchel did not look good in his first start of the season last time out, giving up five earned runs on eight hits in just four innings to the Rangers. Colorado’s offense is cold, but they’re still in a good position. Start your stacks with Brendan Rodgers and Brenton Doyle.
Aug 23, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Cincinnati Reds second baseman Jonathan India (6) hits a double against the Philadelphia Phillies during the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Cincinnati Reds (3.07 IRT)
At first glance, that low run total looks not appealing, but when you factor in that the Yankees’ team ERA over the past two weeks (6.69) is the highest in baseball and couple it with Luis Gil getting shelled in his past two starts (12 earned runs in just 5.2 innings), this could be a really sneaky spot. Our MLB Leverage Stacks tool shows very low ownership on this stack as well. Both Jonathan India (1.536 OPS in L7) and Elly de la Cruz (1.042 OPS in L7, including three SB) are two I want to be heavy on in my Reds stacks, and Stuart Fairchild and Spencer Steer (six RBI each in the last seven games) are key pieces for me tonight as well.
Houston Astros (4.41 IRT)
Nice matchup for Houston tonight, especially given their play recently (they’re averaging six runs a game over the past two weeks while hitting a league-high .284) and the relatively poor play of the Blue Jays’ pitching staff (a 5.53 ERA in their past 12 games, third-worst in baseball). Jose Berrios is no slouch this season, but the Astros do have nice offensive upside, so I like attacking this spot tonight for a little bit of leverage. Jose Altuve (1.082 OPS in L7) is playing like we’re used to seeing, and I’m going heavy on him and Yordan Alvarez; Alex Bregman has a solid record against Berrios, and Jon Singleton (1.009 OPS in his last five) and Jake Meyers (.929 OPS in L7) are inexpensive pieces who are contributing.
Jul 8, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) hits an rbi single against the Tampa Bay Rays in the fourth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Braves (5.34 IRT)
A high run total with somewhat-supressed ownership (as of this writing, our Leverage Stacks tool shows them as the seventh-highest owned stack) facing a Giants team with a 1.51 team WHIP and allowing teams to hit .284 against them in the past two weeks is what we have with the Braves tonight. Prime spot for a team in a good spot potentially going underowned, and to top it off, they’re facing Hayden Birdsong who is making just his second start ever (he gave up three earned runs and six hits in just 4.2 innings against the Cubs in his first start). Start your stacks with Austin Riley and Jarred Kelenic (who has been thriving in the leadoff spot), and mix in the usual suspects (Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Marcell Ozuna) as secondary pieces.
Philadelphia Phillies (4.59 IRT)
The Phillies have been hitting fairly well lately even with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber out of the lineup (they’re batting .275 as a team over the past week), and they’re in a game with a 9.5 O/U tonight. Hayden Wesneski gets the start for the Cubs, and he has bounced back and fourth between starter and reliever; he’s been not terribly effective when utilized as a starter this season, so on a large slate, this could be a sneaky spot. Alec Bohm (two HR and seven RBI in L7) and Brandon Marsh (1.035 OPS in L7) have been solid for the Phillies, and Trea Turner is always dangerous. Nick Castellanos is also back in Chicago and he likes to show up for games like this.
For other popular plays, our revamped MLB Research Station has every stat you need to send your research to the next level!
Apr 29, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
FOUR MLB BvP Matchups
Alex Bregman vs. Jose Berrios: 6-22 with two 2B, two HR, and five RBI
Willson Contreras vs. Mitch Keller: 5-15 with two 2B, a HR, and two RBI
Tommy Pham vs. Carlos Carrasco: 7-15 with two 2B, a HR, and four RBI
Jorge Soler vs. Reynaldo Lopez: 12-19 with four 2B, three HR, and eight RBI
THREE MLB Value Plays
Stuart Fairchild ($3000 DK / $2600 FD): Six RBI and four SB in L7 (hits in four straight and six of seven)
Derek Hill ($2500 DK / $2500 FD): Hits in four straight games and HR in two straight
Jon Singleton ($3100 DK / $2600 FD): Hits in four of his last six games; 1.009 OPS in L5