Solid slate tonight of 12 games tonight. Let’s see where we can go and how we can get different. The focus of this article is to sort through the myriad of options on larger slates and find not only some solid foundational plays but also some spots that could go overlooked. We focus on stacks that are solid for small-field and SE as well as overlooked spots for large-field GPPs, and we discuss players that have good past history vs. the pitchers they’re facing. Our Discord strategy rooms are incredibly active. Hop in and join the discussion!
FIVE DFS MLB Stacks
Houston Astros (4.94 IRT)
The narrative is slowly becoming “attack the Rockies,” regardless of if the game is in Coors or not. Colorado’s pitching staff might be the worst in baseball, ranking dead last in staff ERA (5.63), batting average allowed (.288), and WHIP (1.55). Houston comes into this matchup at home averaging six runs a game over the last week while hitting .310 as a team, the best mark in the league over that time. Austin Gomber toes the rubber for the Rockies, and he’s given up 19 earned runs in his last 17.2 innings (and 15 of those were given up on the road, so it’s not just the Coors effect at work in his ineptitude). Start your stacks with the usual big three (Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Alex Bregman), but also consider Chas McCormick who is getting more playing time and who has a 1.098 OPS in his last five games, including a couple of bombs.
Jul 8, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) hits an rbi single against the Tampa Bay Rays in the fourth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Braves (4.60 IRT)
Atlanta’s offense has been a little stagnant as of late, averaging just over four runs in the past week, but there are a few players playing well: Austin Riley (1.194 OPS in L7), Ramon Laureano (1.000 OPS in L7), and Sean Murphy (6-18 with two HR and four RBI in his last five games). Kyle Gibson doesn’t have the best record against Atlanta, sporting a 4.91 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in five starts, and some of the Braves’ players are slumping a bit, but many of them have a very good track record against Gibson, so I’m starting there: Riley, Laureano, and Matt Olson are a combined 24-54 with seven HR and 15 RBI against the Cardinal starter.
Minnesota Twins (3.99 IRT)
The Twins’ offense is one of the hottest in baseball, having scored 85 runs in the past two weeks while hitting .324 as a team with a .930 OPS (all tops in the league during that time); they’re a top 10 offense on the season as well, so it’s not like this is a flash in the pan. They face the Diamondbacks and Brandon Pfaadt, who hasn’t been the best this season: he’s sporting a 4.36 ERA while striking out under a batter an inning, and his last five starts have seen him pitch to a 5.10 ERA. Start your stacks with Royce Lewis (obviously), Carlos Santana (1.089 OPS in L7), Willi Castro (1.210 OPS and great multi-positional eligibility), and Jose Miranda (hitting .333 with two HR and seven RBI in L7), and add in some Austin Martin for cheap.
Aug 31, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets right fielder Starling Marte (right) celebrates with first baseman Pete Alonso (20) after hitting a two-run home run in the third inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
New York Mets (4.05 IRT)
This could be a sneaky spot to look at tonight. The Mets’ offense has been playing extremely well over the last two weeks, hitting .281 as a team while averaging over six runs a game (including 21 long balls). They get Gerrit Cole tonight, but as it’s just Cole’s second start back from injury, it’s possible he’s not quite there yet (though his first start was a solid one), so you might get some leverage stacking against him. The Yankees are giving up nearly six runs a game over the past two weeks. Brandon Nimmo (1.331 OPS in L7) in the leadoff spot and Pete Alonso (1.097 OPS, including two HR and 10 RBI) cleaning up are where I’m starting my stacks, and I’m not leaving out Francisco Alvarez, who is on a nice hot streak here (1.486 OPS while hitting .500 over his L7). Our MLB Leverage Stacks tool has them as one of the lowest owned stacks tonight, so this could be a great leverage spot.
Los Angeles Dodgers (5.65 IRT)
Another narrative is to stack against the White Sox, and tonight is no exception: Chris Flexen with his 5.03 ERA and 1.39 WHIP isn’t scaring anyone, especially this Dodger lineup. The starting spot for your stacks has to be Shohei Ohtani (1.477 OPS in L7, including four HR and 12 RBI) and Freddie Freeman (.886 OPS in L7), and Jason Heyward is playing like the Heyward of old (.881 OPs with a HR and eight RBI in L7).
For other popular plays, our revamped MLB Research Station has every stat you need to send your research to the next level!
Apr 27, 2021; Dunedin, Florida, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays infielder Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) hits a grand slam home run during the third inning against the Washington Nationals at TD Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
FOUR MLB BvP Matchups
Willy Adames vs. Andrew Heaney: 7-15 with two HR and four RBI
Jarren Duran vs. Kevin Gausman: 6-13 with four 2B and a HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Brayan Bello: 7-17 with two 2B, two HR, and six RBI
Matt Olson vs. Kyle Gibson: 10-24 with two 2B, four HR, and eight RBI
THREE MLB Value Plays
Ramon Laureano ($2700 DK / $FD): 1.000 OPS in L7; 10-20 with three 2B, two HR, six RBI, and four RBI vs. Gibson
Joey Loperfido ($2900 DK / $FD): 1.055 OPS in his past three games since getting called up
Austin Martin ($2800 DK / $FD): 1.024 OPS in his last six games