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NFL DFS Week 13 Milly Maker Review

The Milly Maker is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing years of winning lineups!

Nov 26, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) is introduced before playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

 

Week 13 Points
Brock Purdy 32.46
Derrick Henry 28
Zack Moss 7.7
Mike Evans 32.2
Deebo Samuel 38.8
Nico Collins 37.1
Sam Laporta 32
Greg Dortch 2.9
Patriots 7
Total 218.16

 

One of the best spots of the day delivered to propel this lineup to the top of the leaderboards when Purdy threw multiple touchdowns to Deebo Samuel. Deebo added one on the ground as well; Evans, Collins, and Laporta all scored 32 or more for this lineup to have 4 pass catchers score 32+ FPTS and win the Millionaire Maker contest on DraftKings.

Stacking

It was good to see stacking take back over this week after back-to-back weeks with a winning Milly Maker lineup having a naked QB build.

Primary Stack

Brock Purdy 32.46 FPTS + Deebo Samuel 38.8 FPTS

Secondary Stack

Zack Moss 7.7 FPTS +Derrick Henry 28 FPTS

Total Stack Points: 71.26 FPTS

Total Stack Ownership: 115.24%

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$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership

Week 13 Ownership
Brock Purdy 21.10%
Derrick Henry 8.29%
Zack Moss 65.15%
Mike Evans 4.85%
Deebo Samuel 20.70%
Nico Collins 8.83%
Sam Laporta 6.81%
Greg Dortch 9.64%
Patriots 14.08%
Total 159.45%

 

Despite a chalky stack of Purdy to Deebo and 65% Zack Moss, this lineup was actually quite contrarian in several other spots. This was the third chalkiest winning build on the season but 65% of it was tied to the free square of Zack Moss. Moss accounted for 40% of the total ownership in the lineup.

Top Leverage Plays

Derrick Henry at 8.29%

Henry was a fraction of a point away from being the top scoring Running Back and yet he left the game early and into the concussion protocol.

Mike Evans at 4.85%

The field doesn’t seem to want to play Evans this year because of Baker Mayfield but Evans continues to smash. He’s the WR5 on the season and fantastic leverage off of a lot of the pricier plays like Amon-ra and AJ Brown.

Nico Collins at 8.83%

Nico was the main beneficiary of Dell leaving the game early with an injury; The only player he didn’t outscore was Deebo and they were in the same lineup so he was leverage off of the pricier plays like Tyreek Hill who surprisingly didn’t make it into the winning build.

Sam Laporta at 6.81%

Laporta is one of those guys you just need to play every week and was worth the $5600 price tag. He outscored Kittle, Jordan, Freiermuth, and Njoku who all got more ownership.

Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest

Week 13 Pricing FPTS per Dollar
Brock Purdy $6,100 5.32X
Derrick Henry $6,800 4.11X
Zack Moss $4,600 1.67X
Mike Evans $7,700 4.18X
Deebo Samuel $6,200 6.25X
Nico Collins $6,800 5.45X
Sam Laporta $5,600 5.71X
Greg Dortch $3,700 .78X
Patriots $2,400 2.91X
Total $49,900 4.37X

 

Despite not doing much, points wise, the Zack Moss $4600 play really saved this lineup some salary to build a balanced lineup across the board with Purdy, Henry, Evans, Deebo, Nico, and Laporta. This is one of the benefits of fading players in the 8-10k range as they really need to have a ceiling performance to pay off their salary and it’s much easier for a guy like Deebo to score 30+ at $6200 for 6.25X than it is for Hill to score 50+ at $9600 to deliver 6X. Again we see a lineup here that didn’t use all $50,000 salary. That marks 10 times this year when all $50,000 salary wasn’t used in the winning Milly Maker build.

Ceiling

The winning scores of the winning Milly Maker lineup have definitely been way down the last few weeks of the season. Over the last 3 weeks we have winning scores of 220, 215, and 218 Fantasy Points. What’s fascinating about this is the game scores aren’t necessarily down in each of those weeks. For example, yesterday we had game totals of 61, 59, 60, 61, and 54. If the GPP winning ceiling is lower, that’s because the field is failing at pushing it higher. The points are there but the field has to find them.

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