Kickstart your excitement for Week 14 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.
Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!
Oct 29, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) looks on prior to the game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterbacks:
Joshua Dobbs ($5.9k at Las Vegas Raiders)
Dobbs came crashing back to Earth in a great matchup before the bye week against the Bears but comes in as our top-rated point-per-dollar quarterback option. Before that game, he had at least 18 DraftKings points in four straight games and gets another great matchup in this one. The Raiders rank 18th in DVOA against the pass on the season and he could get one of the top receivers in the league back with Justin Jefferson here as well. We have him projected for 18.46 DraftKings points giving him 3.13x his price tag.
Russell Wilson ($5.8k at Las Angeles Chargers)
Wilson has been extremely consistent as of late with at least 17 DraftKings points in four of his last five weeks and gets an elite matchup in this one. This Chargers defense is atrocious and ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass on the season. You can stack him up with guys like Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy at a cheap price tag and brings some nice rushing upside as well. The Domination Station has him projected for 17.49 DraftKings points giving him 3.02x his current price tag.
Baker Mayfield ($5.3k at Atlanta Falcons)
Baker hasn’t been the sexiest option, but the price tag is too cheap and doesn’t need to be all that flashy at this price. The matchup is elite against this Falcons secondary that ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass on the season. He scored 17.2 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and has some nice stacking options with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton, and even Rachaad White. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 15.34 DraftKings points giving him 2.89x his price tag.
Click here for full Quarterback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
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Running Backs:
Zack Moss ($5.9k at Cincinnati Bengals)
Moss comes in as our top point-per-dollar running back on the week and gets a great matchup against this Bengals defense. The Bengals rank 29th in DVOA against the run this season and we’ve seen Moss take over when Jonathan Taylor has missed this season. He got 21 touches last week and I would expect another 20+ in this one. The Domination Station has him projected for 14.06 DraftKings points giving him 2.38x his current price tag.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6.6k at Chicago Bears)
The production on Gibbs is trending in the wrong direction and he fell behind David Montgomery in snap counts for the first time since week 4. He only saw nine touches in a mostly positive game script game for running backs. It seems like Monty is the guy they want to go to when they’re looking to milk the clock. A revenge game for Montgomery as well… I may go underweight on Gibbs, but it’s hard to argue with the production when the opportunity is there for him. He ranks 7th among all running backs in expected fantasy points per game. We have him projected for 15.43 DraftKings points giving him 2.34x his salary.
Zach Charbonnet ($5.4k at San Francisco 49ers)
Charbonnet has taken over as the lead back for the Seahawks with Kenneth Walker banged up. Early word sounds like Walker could play this week, but I think they’re saying that very loosely. I’ll operate under the assumption that Charbonnet is the workhorse again in this one and looks like a great mid-range option even in a tough matchup. He saw 20 touches last week and would expect more of the same in this one and if you’re going to beat the Niners anywhere, it’s on the ground as they rank 18th in DVOA against the run on the season. Our lineup optimizer has him projected for 12.66 DraftKings points giving him 2.34x his current salary.
Click here for full Runningback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Wide Receivers:
Odell Beckham Jr. ($3.8k vs. Las Angeles Rams)
Odell has been fairly consistent as of late considering how cheap his price tag is, he has at least 11 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. He’s not playing a ton of snaps, right around 33% over the last three weeks but the targets have been there with at least 5 in back-to-back weeks. The Rams are a fine matchup, not great, not terrible. I like the upside we’re getting with him at this price tag, we have him projected for 9.44 DraftKings points giving him 2.48x his price tag.
Josh Downs ($4.9k at Cincinnati Bengals)
Downs has come down to Earth over the last few games, but the ceiling is certainly there and the price tag is great. The Bengals are more vulnerable against the run, but they’re fairly middle of the road against the pass. He’s second on the team with a 21% target share and a 24.1% red zone target share. The Domination Station has him projected for 11.97 DraftKings points giving him 2.44x his price tag.
Drake London ($4.6k vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
London had an extremely tough matchup last week against the Jets and it showed in his performance. That said, he has at least seven targets in six of his last eight games and is a top target for this Falcons passing game. The Bucs have also been terrible against opposing wide receivers, ranking 27th in DvP against them on the season. The price tag is great, I’ll want to be overweight on him especially if the public sees his game last week and is underweight. Our lineup optimizer has him projected for 11.04 DraftKings points giving him 2.4x his price tag.
Click here for full Wide Receiver projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Tight Ends:
David Njoku ($4.1k vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Njoku had a tough go of it last week against the Rams but had been in great form prior to that game with at least 10 DraftKings points in his previous six games. The other tight end on the team, Harrison Bryant, had a big game though so at least we know Flacco is looking at the tight ends for production. The Jaguars rank 20th in DVOA against tight ends on the season as well, so I think we can go right back to the well with Njoku here. The Domination Station has him projected for 10.83 DraftKings points giving him 2.64x his price tag.
Juwan Johnson ($3.3k vs. Carolina Panthers)
Johnson had a gooseegg last week against the Lions and is going to be a bit of a punt option here again. He doesn’t need to do a ton at this price tag and has at least 8 DraftKings points in two of his last four games. He’s running a route on 74.3% of his snaps which is great for his production. The Panthers have been pretty good against the tight end position ranking 7th in DvP, so the matchup isn’t great, but again, if he catches a touchdown he likely gets us there. We have him projected for 8.14 DraftKings points giving him 2.47x his price tag.
T.J. Hockenson ($6.0k at Las Vegas Raiders)
Hockenson bounced back nicely before they went on bye and has been a top target for Josh Dobbs since joining the team. The biggest impact to Hockenson’s production could be the potential return of Justin Jefferson. He’s averaging more than 4 DraftKings points per game without Jefferson active this season, but his price tag has remained steady. The matchup is great though as the Raiders rank 17th in DvP against tight ends on the season. Our lineup optimizer has him projected for 14.47 DraftKings points giving him 2.41x his price tag.
Click here for full Tight End projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Defense/Special Teams:
Kansas City Chiefs $2.6k – This defense has come down to Earth over the last couple of weeks against the Raiders and Packers, but the playmakers are still there. The matchup doesn’t look great on paper against a high-powered Bills offense, but we’ve certainly seen Josh Allen’s willingness to force balls this season.
Las Angeles Rams $2.7k – At least 5 DraftKings points in four straight games and gets a solid price tag here. The matchup isn’t great against the Ravens, but the Rams have enough playmakers to pay off this price tag as well.
Atlanta Falcons $2.9k – This defense has been great with at least 9 DraftKings points in three of their last four games and I like the matchup against the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield certainly doesn’t scare you on the other side, I like going right back to the well if you can find the money.
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