Kickstart your excitement for Week 13 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.
Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!
Brock Purdy ($6.1k at Philadelphia Eagles)
Purdy comes in as our top point-per-dollar quarterback option on the week in a really nice matchup against this Eagles pass defense. Philly is great against the run and is often in a positive game script for opposing teams which funnels to the pass more than a lot of teams, but their secondary just isn’t all that great. They rank 21st in DVOA against the pass on the season and 31st in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, so the spot looks great. He has some electric stacking options with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery as well. He had a down week last time out against the Seahawks but I like this spot quite a bit for him. The Domination Station has him projected for 18.81 DraftKings points giving him 3.08x his salary.
Gardner Minshew II ($5.3k at Tennessee Titans)
Minshew bounced back nicely in a good matchup last week and gets another great matchup here. Similar to Purdy’s matchup, the Titans are great against the run, but you can throw all day against them. They rank 30th in DVOA against the pass putting Minshew in a great spot here. The Colts also lost Jonathan Taylor to injury which may force them to throw more even though we’ve seen Zack Moss produce well when given the opportunity this season. You can stack him up with guys like Michael Pittman and Josh Downs and feel pretty good about it. We have him projected for 16.22 DraftKings points giving him 3.06x his current salary.
Baker Mayfield ($5.5k vs. Carolina Panthers)
Yet another quarterback with a great matchup against the worst team in football. He has at least 15 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, so the consistency has certainly been there and the matchup should only help. The ceiling is sneakily there as well, as he ranks 1st among all quarterbacks in deep ball attempts on the season. You can stack him up with guys like Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and even Rachaad White out of the backfield. Our lineup optimizer has him projected 15.98 DraftKings points giving him 2.91x his salary.
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Rachaad White ($6.3k vs. Carolina Panthers)
White comes in as our top point-per-dollar running back on the week and gets a great matchup against this Panthers defense that we briefly touched on with Baker in the quarterbacks’ section. White has been one of the more consistent fantasy producers as of late with at least 15.9 DraftKings points in six straight games. The Panthers rank dead last in DVOA against the run on the season and White has some nice pass game upside as well. The Domination Station has him projected for 14.77 DraftKings points giving him 2.34x his price tag.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6.7k at New Orleans Saints)
Gibbs came down to Earth last week against the Packers in a negative game script but did see eight targets as they played from behind for most of the game. Due to that game script, he saw 71% of the running back snaps, as he’s the better pass-catcher between him and David Montgomery. This is a tough matchup against a good Saints defense, but they can be beaten on the ground. The pass-game upside gives him a really nice floor/ceiling combination, he’s 3rd among all running backs this season in targets. We have him projected for 15.44 DraftKings points giving him 2.3x his price tag.
Javonte Williams ($5.7k at Houston Texans)
Williams has cooled off a bit over the last two weeks but had a fairly decent game in a tough matchup against the Browns last time out. He saw 70% of running back snaps last week and the volume is certainly there, he saw 21 touches last week and had a potential of 24 with six targets in the passing game. That said, Houston is fairly decent against the run ranking 10th in DVOA on the season. I do think he’s still too cheap for the clear workhorse in this backfield. Our lineup optimizer has him projected for 13 DraftKings points giving him 2.28x his price tag.
***As I write this, Jonathan Taylor was announced that he’s going to miss some time, so I would expect Zack Moss to jump up to the top of this list at $4.6k in a tough matchup against the Titans run defense. Make sure to check the Domination Station as we get closer to Sunday for an update on his point-per-dollar projection.***
Rondale Moore ($3.4k at Pittsburgh Steelers)
It feels like Moore cracks this list each and every week, but we get a decent amount of upside out of him. It’s not a ton, but he has at least 9 DraftKings points in two of his last three games which is more than doable at this price tag. He’s going to be out there at the very least with at least 65% of snaps in each game since week 3 and a lot of those snaps are coming in the slot, if not, all of them. Kyler Murray being back helps stretch the field and they’ll always be creative in getting him the ball. We have him projected for 9.13 DraftKings points giving him 2.69x his salary.
Drake London ($4.9k at New York Jets)
I really like the price tag on London here, he has at least 7 targets in six of his last seven games but does get a tough matchup in this one. He will probably draw Sauce Gardner on the outside which is less than ideal considering his quarterback’s ability to get him the ball, but I think that’s baked into the price tag here. The touchdown equity hasn’t exactly been there either with just two touchdowns on the season, that said, he does lead the team with a 27% target rate in the red zone. The Domination Station has him projected for 11.76 DraftKings points giving him 2.4x his price tag.
Demario Douglas ($4.3k vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
I have a soft spot for Pop Douglas, he continues to get peppered with targets in a very weak receiving core. He has 9 targets in back-to-back weeks and double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games. The issue generally comes down to his quarterback play which may not matter in an elite matchup against this Chargers defense. We don’t know who will start at quarterback for the Patriots this week but the Chargers rank 27th in DVOA against the pass and 30th in DvP against opposing wide receivers. Whoever is in there at quarterback will look to Douglas as a safety blanket and is a guy I like quite a bit here. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 10.16 DraftKings points giving him 2.36x his price tag.
Trey McBride ($4.9k at Pittsburgh Steelers)
McBride continues to crack the list as a top-value play on the slate. He’s quickly become a top option in this Cardinals offense and has at least 7 targets in four of his last five games and double-digit fantasy points in three of his last five. As I mentioned with Rondale above, Murray being back will help push the ball down the field with more consistency. The matchup isn’t great, but I have no issue going right back to him at this price tag. The Domination Station has him projected for 11.94 DraftKings points giving him 2.44x his price tag.
David Njoku ($4.1k at Los Angeles Rams)
Njoku has been getting peppered with targets as a safety blanket to the merry-go-round of quarterbacks they’ve had to start as of late. He has at least 8 targets in four of his last five games and is simply just too cheap. It certainly sounds like Joe Flacco will start at quarterback this week and I have my doubts he can push the ball downfield which could mean plenty of short passes for Njoku and is a guy I love in this spot. It’s a great matchup as well as the Rams rank 23rd in DvP against opposing tight ends on the season. We have him projected for 9.78 DraftKings points giving him 2.39x his salary.
Cade Otton ($3.2k vs. Carolina Panthers)
I touched on Otton’s quarterback in the quarterback section of the article, so we could get a really cheap Baker/Otton stack to kick us off in a great matchup against the Panthers. Otton doesn’t need to do a whole lot at this price tag and has at least 8 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. The Panthers have been fairly decent against opposing tight ends this season but I think we can overlook that given the punt value of this price tag. Our lineup optimizer has him projected for 7.55 DraftKings points giving him 2.36x his price tag.
New England Patriots $2.4k – The Pats come in as the second cheapest defense on the week which is probably enough to sell them, but they’ve actually been pretty solid as of late with at least 5 DraftKings points in five straight games. It’s a tough matchup against the Chargers, but they have a knack for slowing the game down a bit.
Tennessee Titans $2.8k – I have no issue with the Titans here in a solid matchup against the Colts. Minshew is no stranger to making a mistake or two and the team will be without Jonathan Taylor yet again, they look like a nice mid-range option.
Denver Broncos $2.7k – The matchup stinks against this high-powered Texans offense but the Broncos defense has been awesome as of late with at least 8 DraftKings points in four straight games and come in with a nice price tag.