Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/20:
Nov 18, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) celebrates a made basket in the closing minute of their victory over the Dallas Mavericks at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X), make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 244.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -9.0
We’ll kick this slate off with the Bucks on the road in Washington. Giannis Antetokounmpo had himself a massive nice on Saturday and gets an elite matchup against the Wizards in the one. It’ll be a fast-paced game and this Wizards team isn’t playing any sort of defense. Damian Lillard also had a big game and now has at least 53 DraftKings points in two of his last three. They should get Khris Middleton back in this one but he’s still being limited to around 20 minutes per game and is uninteresting at this price tag. Pat Connaughton has filled in very nicely over the last couple of games with both Beauchamp and Crowder out. His price tag hasn’t moved all that much, I have no issue with him in tournaments again in this one but probably loses a few minutes to Middleton. Brook Lopez has been a blocks machine as of late but can certainly be volatile if those aren’t there making him more of a tournament guy. Finally, Bobby Portis is a bit overpriced for me on a slate of this size and the team mostly healthy. From the Wizards, Kyle Kuzma feels like he’s priced just a bit too high considering his production as of late, but I don’t mind getting to him in a fast-paced matchup. Then we get to Jordan Poole who I think I’ll wind up being overweight on. Yes, he’s been volatile and all over the place but this Bucks defense has given up a lot of big games to opposing guards this season. His price tag continues to fall and I still think that huge ceiling is in there somewhere. Deni Avdija has been extremely consistent as of late but feels like he’s priced right where he should be. The same cannot be said for Tyus Jones who has seen his minutes fluctuate and is priced up relative to his production. Bilal Coulibaly continues to see good minutes and makes sense as a secondary option while Daniel Gafford will be a GPP option at center, but they’ll need his size against a big Bucks frontcourt.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Damian Lillard, Jordan Poole, Deni Avdija
Deeper Value: Corey Kispert, Danilo Gallinari
GPP Sleeper: Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford, Bilal Coulibaly, Tyus Jones
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Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -9.5
Starting with the Celtics, the matchup is great here for this Boston offense but the issue is we have a hard time determining who will have the big game between the ancillary pieces. Once you get passed Jayson Tatum it’s like picking a name out of a hat. Tatum definitely looks good considering the matchup, but guys like Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Prozingis will be GPP options for me even in a good matchup with the volatility that comes with their price tags. Derrick White should continue to see good minutes but feels like he’s priced right about where he should be. From the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without Terry Rozier but did get Miles Bridges back last week. As gross as it feels, he has been good since returning and is too cheap here. The matchup is tough but he’ll look good in this price range. LaMelo Ball has at least 50 DraftKings points in four straight games and has been great with Rozier off of the court this season. Again, I don’t love the matchup, but he’s a nice spend-up option on this slate. Gordon Hayward and PJ Washington are similar options here, they haven’t been in good form and get a tough matchup here, so they’ll be tournament options in this one. Brandon Miller had a big game last time out but has been volatile this season, I would rather have Bridges in that price range. Then Mark Williams will be a fine mid-range option at center for tournaments as well.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Miles Bridges, LaMelo Ball
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gordon Hayward, Brandon Miller, PJ Washington, Mark Williams
Denver Nuggets @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 220.0
Vegas Spread: Den -8.5
Starting with the Nuggets, they’ll still be without Jamal Murray again in this one meaning Reggie Jackson should stick around in the starting lineup. Below is how this team has operated with Murray off of the court this season:
- Reggie Jackson – 20.8% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – 12.6% usage rate; 0.66 fpm
- Michael Porter Jr. – 22.3% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Aaron Gordon – 19.0% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Nikola Jokic – 34.3% usage rate; 2.00 fpm
Jokic is the obvious option and will look like a top spend-up option on the slate, he has at least 67 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Porter Jr. and Gordon have looked great as of late as well and will see an increase in usage and opportunity with Murray out. I can’t say I love getting to Jackson at his price tag but I’m fine with it if you land on him. From Detroit, Jalen Duren and Killian Hayes missed their last game and probably come into this one as questionable, we’re still waiting on an injury report for them this morning. If Duren is out we saw Isaiah Stewart slide over to the five while Kevin Knox joined the starting lineup. Knox is already priced up and not a guy that I think is a very good basketball player in general. Cade Cunningham has been fine but we would like more production in relation to his price tag, he’s probably more of a GPP option but his price has dropped a bit. Isaiah Stewart struggled last time out but saw just 21 minutes due to a big blowout, he’ll have his hands full in this one if Duren isn’t in there to help with Jokic down low. Then, Ausar Thompson has been great as well and is filling up the stat sheet, his price is up, but I like the floor/ceiling combination. We should probably touch on James Wiseman as well, he saw 24 minutes last time out and if Duren misses again, they’ll need all the size they can throw at Jokic.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, Ausar Thompson
Deeper Value: James Wiseman
GPP Sleeper: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson, James Wiseman, Kevin Knox, Marvin Bagley
Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -8.0
Starting with the Clippers, it’s extremely hard to know what to do with this team with James Harden joining Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard as high-usage players. Harden hasn’t been great from a fantasy perspective in his first few games but did show signs of life last time out against the Rockets. I just can’t confidently get behind any of these guys on a decent-sized slate like we have tonight. His presence seemed to harm the production for Kawhi and George and will be GPP options for me, at best. I should mention, they all looked pretty good last time out after Westbrook requested to come off of the bench, so maybe there was a little something to that. If you want to get to any of these guys outside of Westbrook, I wouldn’t talk you off of them in this matchup. Lastly, Ivica Zubac is a fine option who should see his minutes solidify with Mason Plumlee now out with injury. From the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama had his best game of his young career last time out with 8 (!) blocks on his way to 65.6 FanDuel points. He’s shown some volatility this season, but I would have no issue going back to him in GPPs. Devin Vassell will continue to miss this game which should open up more opportunities for the rest of this team. Keldon Johnson came down to Earth last time out but had at least 47 DraftKings points in back-to-back prior games. Zach Collins followed up his 50-burger with a solid game as well but may be at the point where he’s priced about right. Lastly, Jeremy Sochan has shown some consistent form as of late as well, and makes sense as a secondary option to round out the team.
5-star play: None
4-star play: James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Victor Wembanyama, Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins
Deeper Value: Norman Powell
GPP Sleeper: Tre Jones, Norman Powell, Russell Westbrook
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 208.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -1.5
Oh great… a total under 210, this one is ugly but we’ll start with the Heat. Jimmy Butler has been fairly volatile relative to his price tag and struggled in this matchup last time out, I do think there is some meat on the bone at this price, however. Bam Adebayo has been unreal as of late with at least 49 DraftKings points in five of their last seven games and gets an elite matchup in this one. Kyle Lowry is just not a guy I want to play right now, I don’t think he’s very good and he’s proven that even with Herro out. He’s a GPP secondary option if you need a mid-range point guard. I do still think Duncan Robinson is solid as well, he has at least 32 DraftKings points in four straight games. Guys like Josh Richardson and Jaime Jaquez are fine options but more of MME-type of plays on a slate of this size now that their price tags have come up a bit. From the Bulls, it’s hard for me to say any of these three main pieces are the guy to roster in this one. Zach LaVine had the best game of three last time out but both Nikola Vucevic and DeMar DeRozan are firmly in play as well. I just don’t think we need to force any of them in a slow-paced matchup against a good defense. Coby White bounced back nicely after a couple of down games and makes sense as a GPP option. Then it sounds like Alex Caruso will return here and is a fine mid-range option if you land on him.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan
Deeper Value: Josh Richardson, Kevin Love
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Lowry, Josh Richardson, Jaime Jaquez, Kevin Love, Coby White, Alex Caruso
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 238.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -1.0
Starting with the Kings, we saw Chris Duarte enter the starting lineup for Kevin Huerter who missed their game last night. I would imagine Huerter comes into this one as questionable, if he’s forced to miss we can go right back to the well with Duarte as his price tag hasn’t moved since last night, and was able to put up 34 DraftKings points, over 10x his price tag. Domantas Sabonis has been awesome as of late with at least 51 FanDuel points in six straight games and I love the matchup here. The same can be said for De’Aaron Fox, he’s been in great form and the Pelicans like to play fast and loose. Keegan Murray is more of a tournament guy due to his volatility, but we know he can get hot from the field and grab some boards. Then guys like Malik Monk and Harrison Barnes in in the same category of GPP options to round out the team. From the Pelicans, they’ll be without CJ McCollum again in this one meaning we should see Jordan Hawkins in the starting lineup again. Zion Williamson should return here after resting last time out as well. Below is how this team has operated with him off of the court this season:
- Brandon Ingram – 32.6% usage rate; 1.20 fpm
- Jordan Hawkins – 20.6% usage rate; 0.84 fpm
- Herbert Jones – 14.5% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Zion Williamson – 31.5% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Jonas Valanciunas – 21.7% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
Ingram will be my favorite option here as he runs the point with McCollum out but the rest of this starting lineup is going to look good as well. Hawkins has been all over the place and is more of a tournament option. I want to like Zion but it’s hard to ignore his production as of late, that said, I love the matchup against this Kings frontcourt.
5-star play: Chris Duarte (if starting), Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson
4-star play: Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, Jordan Hawkins, Jonas Valanciunas, Herbert Jones, Dyson Daniels
Deeper Value: Chris Duarte
GPP Sleeper: Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, Dyson Daniels, Jordan Hawkins
New York Knicks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 214.5
Vegas Spread: Min -3.0
Starting with the Knicks, Julius Randle came down to Earth last time out in a great matchup against the Hornets and gets a tough matchup against this Wolves frontcourt in this one. He’ll be more of a GPP option for me in this one as his price tag has come up. Jalen Brunson has been much better as of late with at least 48.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and will be a guy I like going back to in this one. RJ Barrett returned last time out and was fine, it feels like he’s priced right where he should be and is probably more of a tournament option in a game with a low total. We’ll need to keep an eye on the status of Quentin Grimes, if he’s out again we should see Donte DiVincenzo back in the starting lineup, and would look like a nice mid-range option. Then guys like Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson are fine secondary tournament options. From the Wolves, Anthony Edwards hasn’t been in great form as of late being held under 40 DraftKings points in three straight games and I don’t necessarily love this game for him either, he’ll be more of a secondary option. Karl-Anthony Towns has been much better as of late and now has at least 50 FanDuel points in three of his last four. I do like the price tag on Rudy Gobert again, he’s been in good form and is playing elite-level defense again. Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson feel like similar options in this price range, both should see good minutes and have been in good enough form. Lastly, Naz Reid hasn’t been all that great as of late but his price tag has come down if you need a cheap PF/C option.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo (if starting), RJ Barrett, Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Donte DiVincenzo, Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart, Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, Naz Reid
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 220.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -7.0
Starting with the Rockets, Alperen Sengun looked good in a tough matchup last night and gets a great matchup here against the Draymond-less Warriors frontcourt. I’d like to go right back to him here, he’s been extremely consistent. The same can be said for Fred VanVleet who has been playing around 40 minutes per game as of late. Jalen Green came down to Earth last time out but has been fairly consistent this season as well, he won’t be a priority but I have no issue getting to him if you land on him again here. Jabari Smith Jr. has gotten his minutes back over the last few games, it helps that Tari Eason missed last night, he’ll be a guy I’ll like again especially if Eason is out. Lastly, Dillon Brooks had a huge game last night but has really struggled with fouls over his last few games. From the Warriors, Steph Curry returned last time out and was fine in 40 minutes but he needs to produce better in order to pay off his price tag. The Rockets have been a sneaky good defensive team this season, so Curry will be more of a GPP guy at this price tag. Chris Paul stuck in the starting lineup with Draymond out last time out, so I would assume we see the same thing again in this one. His price tag is up but he’s been in great form as of late, revenge game as well! Dario Saric got sent back to the bench in favor of Kevon Looney, I’m just going to go with whoever starts here and I would assume it’s Looney who is coming off of a very nice game last time out. I’ll continue to fade Klay Thompson, he’s been held under 30 DraftKings points in every game outside of the season opener. Lastly, Andrew Wiggins had his best game of the season last time out and is probably too cheap if he’s getting back to his normal form to round out the slate.
5-star play: Alperen Sengun
4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Kevon Looney, Andrew Wiggins
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Dario Saric, Klay Thompson
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