10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 11 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 8 Recap:

Draftkings:

Will Levis – 6.96 pts | QB19| 1.3x value

Sam Howell – 28.18 pts. | QB3 | 4.7x value

Austin Ekeler – 5.3 pts | RB5 | 2.56 value

Jahan Dotson – 0 pts | WR100000 | 0x value 

Chig Okonkwo – 5.7 pts | TE16 |1.9x value

Fanduel:

Jared Goff – 21.12 pts| QB7 | 2.6x value

Baker Mayfield – 19.32 pts | QB9 | 2.9x value

Michael Thomas – 1.4 pts | WR100000| 0.2x value

Jameson Williams – 2.8 pts | WR100000| 0.5x value

Rondale Moore – 6.8 pts | WR10000 | 1.4x value

1.5x and 2.1x  return on value on Fanduel and Draftkings respectively. NOT GREAT BOB! QB was solid for me on both sites though as Sam Howell continues to smash and Baker Mayfield is one of the more consistent performers on either site, hovering around that QB10 mark every single week.

WR though was a complete disaster and had multiple zero’s basically and that kept me off the money line in most of my contests. Have to take chances on guys in good spots that are underowned though because that’s the path to a GPP win. Had I pivoted to guys like Brandin Cooks and Trenton Irwin instead of Michael Thomas and Jahan Dotson, we would have had a much better week.

My biggest takeaway from 10 weeks of the season is that RB Chalk is chalk that we just need to eat every week. Unless it’s an absolute smash play we shouldn’t be taking chances on RB’s that are under 10% owned, so going forward, unless I have a real conviction about a guy, I’m not playing any RB that’s going to be under 10% owned.

Much better slate of games this week even though the Chiefs/Eagles and Bengals/Ravens are all in primetime. We still have some potential shootout games with low owned players in great spots, so HERE. WE. GO!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Dorian Thompson-Robinson QB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 1.77%

Salary: DK $4500

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. It’s a bit of a weird week this week with every game having low totals. Chalk is coming in on the standard guys like Tua Tagovailoa  but you are going to be paying a premium for them and there are plenty of cheaper options with tons of upside.

My favorite cheap punt at QB this week was a preseason stud, who looked terrible in his NFL debut, and that’s Dorian Thompson Robinson of the Cleveland Browns.

With DeShaun Watson out for the year, many expected PJ Walker to be the guy, but head coach Kevin Stefanski announced on Wednesday that DTR would be the guy this week. They appear to really like him, and like what they saw in the preseason and want to invest some time into him.

He has rushing upside and a serviceable arm and gets a prime matchup against the Steelers who aren’t the world’s best secondary, more importantly he gets to play at them at home, which is a much better scenario.

Here’s what I really like about DTR though….the price. $4800 is wildly cheap for a QB who is starting in the NFL, especially one with the rushing upside that DTR has. He has to do very very little to pay off that salary, so the risk/return is pretty solid. Lets you pay up for studs all over the rest of the slate.

 

Kyler Murray QB Arizona Cardinals

Ownership: DK 7.95%

Salary: DK $6100

Murray looked solid in his return and now gets to play against Houston in a shoot out. Didn’t throw a TD pass but threw for 249 yards and was able to scramble for a TD. And did so on the same weekend the new Call of Duty came out, which is even more impressive.

He’s just scratching the surface of what he is capable of as he returns from injury. With another week of practice I expect the offense will be clicking. Marquise Brown looked great, Trey McBride continued his heavy workload, and Rondale Moore is just ridiculously cheap so they are all viable stack pieces.

Love the game stack here, whether it’s with Singletary, Brown, Collins, or Tank Dell, all are great pieces. This is my favorite game environment of the week and I’ll have plenty of Kyler Murray/Cards stacks.

Derrick Henry RB Tennessee Titans

Ownership: DK 4.9%

Salary: DK $6300

Derrick Henry owns the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Seriously. He AVERAGES 105 yards and 1.2 TD’s against the Jags over his career and that includes a couple DUDS at the beginning of his career. AND HE’S $6300!

The Titans couldn’t get anything going with the run last week against the Bucs but he should have a much easier go of it against the Jags. Love him as part of a Trevor Lawrence stack or as a one off. The price is just way too cheap for the potential outcome, which is 20+ DK points, maybe more.

Brandon Aiyuk WR San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: 8.02%

Salary: DK $7200

Should be about twice as owned as he is here. Can get it done multiple ways, whether as a target hog, or just on a few, he’s shown that it doesn’t really matter, he’s going to get his.

Best way to attack the Bucs is through the air and I expect Purdy to air it out quite a bit here. Deebo Samuel being back does cut into Aiyuk’s production some, but it also gives him a better matchup in the secondary, so it’s a bit of a trade off.

Home game, heavy favorites, and while I’m a bit concerned it just becomes the CMC show, there’s enough there for me to be all in on Aiyuk.

Jake Ferguson TE Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: DK 6.4%

Salary: DK $4600

I’ve been on Ferguson for weeks and I’m not going to get off him here. Dak and the Cowboys get to play the Panthers and while everyone will be on the running game, I just think this offense is so much better when they are throwing the ball and Ferguson is a huge part of that.

Through the course of the season he’s 2nd on the team in targets behind Ceedee Lamb. Smash play at the price point on DK. A little too expensive on FD but viable.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Trevor Lawrence QB Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: FD 6.52%

Salary: FD $7000

Trevor Lawrence is going to bounce back at some point and really he hasn’t been playing that bad, they just haven’t really blown anyone out to give him that huge stat line.

Has had respectable outings every time out except for against the 49ers. This game against the Titans will be an easier affair. Team total of 23.5 is one of the better totals on the slate and the Jags should be able to score. The Titans are one of the better run defenses in the NFL but a very poor pass defense.

Sneaky spot here that no one will be on. Pair with Calvin Ridley or Christian Kirk or even an underpriced Evan Engram who can rack up a bunch of receptions in a hurry.

Justin Fields QB Chicago Bears

Ownership: FD: 6.53%

Salary: FD $7400

Fields is going to start here after missing the previous 5 weeks. He’s got 30 point upside every time he is under center and this matchup against the Lions is likely to be a shoot out.

I love both sides of this game and say what you will about Fields as the future of the Bears organization, the guy can absolutely score a ton in DFS. Massive upside and will be lower owned because he’s been out. I’m willing to be well over the field here.

Can run him naked obviously, but I think he drags DJ Moore. Moore is poised to breakout again with Fields at the helm and I think that we can expect a big game from both here.

Rico Dowdle RB Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: FD 0.5%

Salary: FD $5000

This is a SUPER punt here but hear me out.

Everyone and their mother wants to play Pollard against the Panthers and their awful front 7 who are getting ran over by everyone. What if though…the Cowboys get up early on Dak’s arm, and they rest Pollard in the second half, giving Dowdle all the carries here, similar to last week. If he finds the end zone with that sort of volume he could smash. AND he could bust one in the first half. The floor really isn’t as bad as one would think so he’s not AS risky as your normal back up RB.

Noah Brown WR Houston Texans

Ownership: FD 6.58%

Salary: FD $6100

Brown has been an absolute monster the last few weeks and I don’t expect that to stop against the Cards this week UNLESS he is held out with his knee injury. He hasn’t practiced as of Thursday so there is definitely some risk here.

The volume has been insane and this is a major plus matchup. Ownership is too low. I’m not getting scared off by the injury. If he’s active then he’s playable. If not then Robert Woods becomes intriguing in his role.

Romeo Doubs WR Green Bay Packers

Ownership: FD 1.18%

Salary: FD: $6300

Love me some Doubs in this prime matchup against the Chargers and their mediocre secondary.

He’s playing the most snaps of any of the WR’s for the Packers and while Watson is getting all the love here (8% to 1%) owned, due to his price being a bit lower than Doubs on each site, I think Doubs is the guy to own in this offense. Love trusts him and looks his way in leverage spots, while Watson is more of a deep threat take a shot guy. That can pay off in a hurry but I really think that Love will pepper Doubs with targets against this secondary and he can pay off this salary on volume alone. If he scores a TD he will smash.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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