Kickstart your excitement for Week 4 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.
Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!
Kirk Cousins ($7.1k at Carolina Panthers)
Captain Kirk comes in as our top point-per-dollar quarterback option on the week against a bad Panthers team. He’s been the best fantasy producer at the position on the season averaging 28.2 DraftKings points per game and gets an elite matchup in this one. The Panthers currently rank 24th in total DVOA on the season and considering the Vikings haven’t gotten much out of their run game, I would expect Cousins to continue to air it out. You can stack him up with a number of options such as Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and even K.J. Osborn in a pinch coming off of back-to-back games with a touchdown. The DFSArmy optimizer has him projected for 23.52 DraftKings points giving him 3.31x his price tag.
Kenny Pickett ($5.1k at Houston Texans)
Pickett looked much better on Monday night in a good matchup with the Raiders. This is going to be another nice matchup against a Texans team that was able to shut down the Trevor Lawrence lead Jaguars offense last week… which may not turn out to be as impressive as it sounds. The Texans rank 25th in total DVOA and Pickett currently ranks seventh in pass attempts, so the opportunity is there. We even saw him use his legs a bit on Monday night which would help raise that floor/ceiling. Stacking options for him include George Pickens, Calvin Austin, Pat Freiermuth, and I don’t hate throwing Jaylen Warren in there as well if you need a cheap option at running back. We have him projected for 15.46 DraftKings points giving him 3.03x his price tag.
Dak Prescott ($6.2k vs New England Patriots)
Prescott and this whole Cowboys team took a face plant in week 3 against the Cardinals but return home to face the Patriots in this one. I can’t say I necessarily love the matchup, the Pats are middle of the road in team defense but we know they’re going to try and slow the pace down with their running backs. He did drop 31.8 DraftKings points against the Patriots in 2021 in a slightly different offense, so the ceiling is certainly there. He does rank first in the league in red zone attempts as well which should lead to positive regression in fantasy points. His main stacking options are CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard, but guys like Michael Gallup, Brandin Cooks, and Jake Ferguson make sense as a flyer options as well. The Domination Station has him projected for 18.54 DraftKings points giving him 2.99x his price tag.
Joe Mixon ($6.4k at Tennessee Titans)
It’s going to be hard for me to pull the trigger here, but the price tag is just too low. That said, this could be an extreme leverage spot… this Tennessee Titans rush defense is no joke. They currently rank 3rd in DVOA against the rush and are terrible against the pass ranking 26th, so it’s evident where teams will look to attack them. I also don’t think Joe Mixon is passing the eye test right now, he’s giving you a floor with at least 10 DraftKings points in three straight but I may use the projected point per dollar as a way to gain some leverage here in an incredibly difficult matchup. We have him projected for 15.81 DraftKings points giving him 2.47x his price tag.
Joshua Kelley ($5.3k vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
I know I know… he’s been terrible over the last few weeks and has been a popular option, but if people jump off of him after being burned over those weeks, let’s look to buy low on him. This matchup is great against the Raiders who rank 28th in total DVOA and 22nd against the run. I will caveat this… Austin Ekeler needs to miss this game again for Kelley to be in play, obviously. Kelley is a talented running back but ran into that Titans defense we just talked about in week 2 and the game last week turned into a bit of a shootout against the Vikings. The Domination Station has him projected for 12.81 DraftKings points which will get it done at this price tag giving him a projected 2.42x point per dollar.
Kyren Williams ($6.0k at Indianapolis Colts)
I love going right back to Kyren Williams after a down week last week where the Bengals where able to get to him early and often in the backfield. That being said, since week 2 when the Rams put Cam Akers on the trade block he’s seen at least 95% of the offensive snaps, so he’s going to be out there as the guy. The Colts run defense is fairly middle of the road and he’s shown some solid pass-game upside as well. Averaging 18 DraftKings points per game in three games on the season, he’s a guy I want to play again at this price. We have him projected for 14.44 DraftKings points giving him 2.41x his price tag.
Tyreek Hill ($9.2k at Buffalo Bills)
It’s always good to see a high-priced player projected to be a high point per dollar option as well, meaning the floor will be there at the very least along with the massive ceiling that we’ve seen from Hill this season. This game easily has the highest implied total on the slate at 53.5, so a shootout could be in the cards here. Hill has been an animal to start the season with at least 33.7 DraftKings points in two of three games, he’s 3rd in the league in targets, 1st in deep targets, and 1st among receivers in red zone targets. Tua is very clearly looking his way a ton and this Miami offense seems unstoppable right now. We have Hill projected for a whopping 24.78 DraftKings points giving him 2.69x his current salary.
Justin Jefferson ($9.6k at Carolina Panthers)
Yet another high-end receiver with a big price tag but also a big point per dollar projection. Jefferson has been about as consistent as they come without sacrificing a ceiling. He has at least 27 DraftKings points in each game on the season and makes plenty of sense to stack up with Cousins as we mentioned in the quarterback section as a great point-per-dollar option as well. He’s 2nd in the league in targets on the season with 38 and as mentioned with Cousins, the matchup is great against this Panthers defense. We have Jefferson projected for 24.1 DraftKings points giving him 2.51x his current price tag.
Curtis Samuel ($3.5k at Philadelphia Eagles)
After those two high-end options, we get a value option here with Samuel against an Eagles defense that is good but would expect the Commanders to fall behind early and need to throw a lot to keep up. Samuel is seeing a good amount of playing time with at least 62% of snaps in each game on the season. In somewhat of an odd stat, he’s second in the league in target separation, so he’s certainly getting open and has the ability to take the ball out of the backfield on sweeps as well. The optimizer has him projected for 8.59 DraftKings points giving him 2.45x his DraftKings price tag.
Zach Ertz ($3.2k at San Francisco 49ers)
Ertz came down to Earth a bit last week in the target department receiving just two against the Cowboys, but still ranks first among tight ends with 20 targets on the season. The Niners’ defense is awesome and can get to the quarterback with ease, so we may see Dobbs under pressure often which could lead to some short targets for Ertz yet again as a safety blanket. Tight end is not a good position to start the season, so it may benefit us to spend down in this range for a guy like Ertz and eat up the floor that comes with those targets. We have him projected for 8.96 DraftKings points with 2.8x value at his price tag.
Pat Freiermuth ($3.4k at Houston Texans)
We probably get more of a ceiling with Freiermuth in that same price range as Ertz in a much better matchup against the Texans. I touched on Kenny Pickett in the quarterback section as a nice point-per-dollar option, so pairing him with Pickett gives you a nice value stack. He’s a guy they look to often when they get down into the red zone and actually ranked 3rd among tight ends in deep targets last season. As I mentioned with Ertz, the position itself has not been good this season, so taking a value option will help you get to higher-priced guys at other positions. The optimizer has him projected for 9.22 DraftKings points giving him 2.71x his price tag.
Mark Andrews ($5.4k at Cleveland Browns)
This is probably the cheapest we’ll see on Andrews all season long, so take advantage of it while we still can. He easily has the highest ceiling of any of these point-per-dollar options and has at least five targets in each of his two games since returning from injury. He did struggle in this matchup last season, but again, this price tag is extremely hard to ignore. He dominated the position last season ranking 3rd in targets, 4th in red zone targets, and 1st in air yards. The Domination Station has him projected for 13.99 DraftKings points giving him 2.59x his current salary.
Buffalo Bills $2.7k – Coincidentally, the game with the highest total on the slate has the two top point per dollar DST options on the slate. Yes, this Miami offense looks awesome, but so does the Bills defense. The had 9 (!) sacks last week and have at least 10 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. They may give up some points here but have some serious playmakers on this defense.
Miami Dolphins $2.6k – On the other side of that Bills DST are the Dolphins in that high-octane game environment. Josh Allen is no stranger to taking shots and absorbing some risk with his throws, so the Dolphins could certainly take advantage of that. Similar to the Bills, this Miami defense has some ball hawks on it and is far too cheap being discounted due to the implied total of this game.
Cleveland Browns $2.8k – This Cleveland defense is nastyyyy, they’ve been extremely consistent with at least 7 DraftKings points in each game this season. This price range is where I’ll want to live when it comes to rostering a DST.
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