Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into our Thursday games as the regular season continues to wind down and are met with a handful of early games followed by a five-game main slate. There are plenty of ways to go with this selection of ballgames, so let’s dig in and see what there is to find!
A look at pitchers
We have a decent range of options today, though there are nearly as many to avoid as there are to look at. For the early games, only Sale and Wheeler offer KSCOREs above 500, while we have some below 300, such as Hudson. For the main slate, we do at least have a handful with strong KSCOREs, such as Luzardo and Peterson. Yarbrough is on that list too, so perhaps he would be worth using in tournaments, if you don’t mind grabbing a Coors pitcher. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Athletics and Twins. Medina and Gray will get the start here, along with an 8.5 total. This game looks as by-the-book as it does lopsided, so I don’t expect many surprises here.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Noda, Brown/Rooker/Gelof
GPP note – Tough spot against Gray, so there’s not a ton to love here as a contrarian option.
Twins 5 star plays – Polanco
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler/Julien
GPP note – Medina is allowing good xwOBA to both sides and some extra power to righties, so you can go after him however you see fit.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox
Next up we have the Diamondbacks and White Sox, with Jarvis and Toussaint on the mound. Both offenses look to be in a good spot here, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some back-and-forth. We’ll have to see what Vegas thinks about this game as that information becomes available, but I have a good feeling about this one.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Walker/Pham
GPP note – Good spot overall, as Toussaint is allowing good contact and power to both sides.
White Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Vaughn/Anderson
GPP note – Jarvis allows good contact to both sides with a low strikeout rate, so grabbing bats that will see him would be a good way to go.
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St Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Hudson and the Cardinals will take on Burnes and the Brewers next. We have an 8.0 total for this one, with the home team as the heavy favorites. Overall it’s hard to see things getting too off track here, but it’s a small slate, so perhaps some contrarian moves will be necessary regardless of the matchup.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Nootbaar/Edman
GPP note – Not a great spot against Burnes, though he does allow some power to righties.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Conteras/Santana, Adames
GPP note – Hudson is allowing good contact to both sides with some extra power going to the lefties, along with a low strikeout rate, making this a solid place to go.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
Next up we’ll have the Pirates and Phillies, with Ortiz and Wheeler on the mound. There looks to be some potential weather issues at play here, so be sure to keep an eye on the skies to make sure that you don’t lose any lineups to mother nature.
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Suwinski, Hayes
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Bae
GPP note – Not a good spot facing Wheeler, though he allows random power to righties.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Stott, Turner/Castellanos/Realmuto
GPP note – Ortiz isn’t allowing a ton of power but he is allowing good xwOBA to both sides and carries a low strikeout rate, so going after him from either side is viable.
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
We wrap up the early games with the Red Sox and Orioles, with Sale and Kremer on the mound. If you know me at all, you know I like my Chris Sale games, and this is no exception. However, there looks to be about a 25% or so chance of rain as of early this morning, so be sure to keep an eye on things here, too.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Verdugo/Yoshida, Turner
GPP note – Kremer allows the occasional homer here and there, but otherwise, hasn’t been a great target to attack.
Orioles 4 star plays – Rutschman/Santander/Henderson
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Hays/Mountcastle
GPP note – Sale has plenty of strikeout upside but is still allowing some power, making this a fine spot to hedge.
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Main slate
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
We kick off the main slate with the Yankees and Blue Jays, with Weaver and Bassitt on the mound. This 8.5 total is a decent way to start off, though seeing that most of that is going to the home team, they’ll be the ones in the spotlight.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres/Stanton
GPP note – An okay spot overall, Bassitt allows decent power to both sides on occasion, so medium-sized stacks could be useful.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette/Belt/Chapman
GPP note – Weaver allows very good contact and power to both sides of the plate, so this is another spot where hand matchup shouldn’t matter a whole lot.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets
We have some more weather concerns with our next game, as the Marlins and Mets will face off. Luzardo and Peterson will get the start, and with them, a 7.5 total. Miami is the slight favorite here, and while I do agree, we’ll have to see if mother nature allows this one to be played as scheduled.
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler/Bell, Burger
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Gurriel, Chisholm
GPP note – Traditional splits work best against Peterson, as he’s strict to lefties while allowing good contact and power to righties.
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso/Lindor
Mets 3.5 star plays – Nimmo/Mauricio
GPP note – Not a great spot against Luzardo, but he does allow moderate contact and power to both sides, so some contrarian moves here could be useful.
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves
Stroman and the Cubs will take on Smith-Shawver and the Braves next. There’s no Vegas insight as of early this morning, though I think that we’ll get a fairly close matchup out of this one, all things considered. I expect that Atlanta will prevail in the end, but I could see this one going either way.
Cubs 5 star plays – Bellinger
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ, Suzuki/Hoerner/Swanson
GPP note – It’s hard to know what we’ll get from Smith-Shawver, but he was allowing plenty of power in his previous starts, so this is as good of a spot to take some shots as any.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna/Olson
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – Stroman has been a tough target, but he is allowing some xwOBA to righties.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
We get our chalky Coors game next, as Yarbrough and the Dodgers will take on Flexen and the Rockies. There’s no Vegas information at the time of writing, but I suspect that we’ll get another 7.0+ total for LA (as well as more than enough ownership in the field).
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy/Smith/Martinez
GPP note – Hello, chalk!
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant, Jones
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Tovar/Rodgers/Diaz
GPP note – Hedging with Yarbrough isn’t a terrible idea.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
We’ll wrap things up with the Rangers and Mariners, with Montgomery and Gilbert facing off. A 7.5 total, Seattle is the slight favorite here, which ought to make this game interesting. While the bats will be the talk of the previous game, both starters look to be interesting options here, so let’s hope for a chess match of a pitcher’s duel. Well, the rest of you may not, but I will be!
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien, Lowe/Garcia
GPP note – It’s not a great spot to attack, but Gilbert does allow decent power to both sides on occasion.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Hernandez, Suarez/Crawford
GPP note – It’s not a good spot here either and Montgomery is more strict about allowed power.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Sep 27, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; A fan with a tablet records Cleveland Guardians designated hitter Jose Ramirez (11) in the third inning of a game against the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports