Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. As we head into the final week of the regular season, we are met with a massive selection of four games (one early straggler followed by a three-game main slate). Considering most of the teams that will be playing today, this sort of feels like a preview of what we’ll see in the weeks ahead. Fear not, we will have a few more larger slates before then! At any rate, we still have some big choices to make today, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
Though there aren’t many options today, there are some good ones to pick from. A whopping five of the six starters on the main slate have implied totals of less than 4.0, which puts all of them in play right off the bat. We’ll want to narrow that down, so as always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early game
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees
We’ll kick things off with our lone early game between the Diamondbacks and Yankees. Kelly and Schmidt will get the start, along with a 7.5 total. Unfortunately, the weather doesn’t look very good for this game, and I suspect that it’s going to get rained out. Alas, this may just be a three-game day.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Pham/Walker
GPP note – Lefties have the statcast advantage against Schmidt, so if they play, traditional splits might be best.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres/Stanton
GPP note – A tougher matchup overall, though Kelly is allowing some decent power to righties and wOBA to lefties, so hand matchup might be a little more flexible here.
Main slate
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, which happens to be all late-night west coast games, starting with the Rangers and Angels. Gray and Sandoval get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. That’s by far the largest total on the day, and seeing that Texas is getting more than five of those, you can expect them to be the chalk of the day.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Semien, Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia, Jung/Heim
GPP note – Given that this offense has the best matchup on the day, everyone is in play here, though righties do have the statcast advantage.
Angels 4 star plays – Moustakas/Walsh
Angels 3.5 star plays – Drury/Schanuel
GPP note – Gray is allowing good contact and power to lefties, so grabbing some small contrarian stacks here wouldn’t be a terrible idea today.
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
Next up we have the Astros and Mariners, with Verlander and Castillo on the mound. A 7.0 total, it’s hard to be very excited about these offenses. However, should the chalky Rangers go off, we’ll still need some secondary stacks to win the day, so be sure to do your research here.
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 3.5 star plays – Altuve/Bregman, Tucker
GPP note – Tough spot against Castillo, who isn’t really allowing much of anything to either side.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Crawford/Raleigh/Hernandez
GPP note – Verlander can be tough but he is allowing good contact and power to righties on occasion.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
We’ll wrap up this behemoth of a day with the Padres and Giants, with Snell and Webb on the mound. Another 7.0 total, the same can be said about this game as the previous one. But hey, if these games don’t excite you, at least there’s some football tonight!
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis, Machado/Bogaerts
GPP note – Webb is allowing good xwOBA to righties and carries one of the lower strikeout rates on the day, so taking some swings here wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Giants 4 star plays – Estrada
Giants 3.5 star plays – Davis/Flores/Haniger
GPP note – Not much to love here, but that’s par for the course for today.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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