Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the weekend with a good selection of games today, as we have four early games followed by an eleven-game main slate. There are plenty of interesting ways to go today, so be sure to get in on the action before these big Friday slates are gone for the season. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!

A look at pitchers

We get a good range of options today, and our cash games look like they can be anchored by Lopez. As for the tournaments, we have several with 500+ KSCOREs, such as Sale, Morton, and even Ragans, if you are feeling a little bold. Either way, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.

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Early games

Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs

We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Rockies and Cubs. Davis and Taillon get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. The Cubbies are the heavy favorite, and while I figure they’ll get the win, I think that the Rockies can keep this one interesting.

Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon, Bryant
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Rogers, Montero
GPP note – Not much Vegas support here, though Taillon is allowing decent contact and power to both sides of the plate. Some small or medium-sized contrarian stacks are a viable option here.

Cubs 5 star plays – Bellinger
Cubs 4 star plays – Hoerner/Happ, Swanson/Suzuki
GPP note – Good spot for these bats, though you may need to utilize the bottom of the order to help with ownership.

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Next up we’ll have the Pirates and Reds, with Ortiz and Abbott on the mound. There is no Vegas insight in the early morning, though I would imagine that Cincinnati will get the nod. I could see a few swings coming from the other side, but the matchup doesn’t seem to be there for the Pirates to run away with this one.

Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Hayes
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Joe
GPP note – Traditional splits seem to work best against Abbott, who is allowing moderate power to righties.

Reds 4 star plays – Friedl/India/Steer
Reds 3.5 star plays – Votto/Fraley
GPP note – Ortiz isn’t allowing a lot of power, but he is allowing good xwOBA to both sides, so perhaps the big hits are coming.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins

The Brewers and Marlins are up next, with Burnes and Hoeing as the starters. I have no Vegas insight for this one yet either, though considering the matchup, I assume that we’ll see Milwaukee get the nod. There are some pieces of the Miami offense that I think could be useful, but overall, I think it’ll wind up about the same as the previous two games.

Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Santana, Contreras
GPP note – Hoeing allows good power to both sides, though lefties do have the advantage in this matchup.

Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm/Arraez, Soler
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Bell/Sanchez
GPP note – It’s not a great matchup against Burnes, though he does allow some power to righties on occasion.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

Bassitt and the Blue Jays will take on Glasnow and the Rays next, along with a paltry 7.5 total. Vegas has this game laid out about as I think it will play out, so I don’t really expect many (or any) surprises. Some of the Toronto bats could be useful, but once again, this feels like a repeat of the previous games.

Blue Jays 4 star plays – Springer/Bichette/Schneider
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Biggio/Chapman
GPP note – While this isn’t a very good spot, Glasnow is allowing decent contact and power to righties, which bodes well for several of these bats. Contrarian stacks are in play here.

Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Lowe, Diaz/Paredes
GPP note – Bassitt allows some power to both sides (more to lefties), so these bats can be utilized as they normally would be.

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Main slate

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Braves and Nationals. Morton and Corbin will get the start here, along with a healthy 9.5 total. We have some weather concerns for this game, so be sure to keep an eye on things as we approach lock, as Atlanta is bound to collect a ton of ownership today.

Braves 5 star plays – Acuna, Olson
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – Corbin has managed to go 12 innings without allowing a home run in his last two starts, but that will probably come to an end very quickly here. Be sure to tap into the bottom of the order for some wrap-around stacks to help with ownership.

Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams/Thomas
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses/Garcia
GPP note – Bad spot for these bats, so be careful going too wild with the contrarian moves.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees

Next up we have Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks set to take on Weaver and the Yankees. We move down to an 8.0 total for this one, with the home team marked down as slight favorites. Me personally, I like Arizona to take this one, so we’ll see how that goes. Not that New York can’t do some damage here, but I see the D-Backs punching just a little bit harder.

Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Pham/Walker
GPP note – Vegas isn’t giving these bats much love at all, but seeing how Weaver has been, this feels like a great spot to go contrarian.

Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres/Stanton, Wells
GPP note – A good spot overall, Pfaadt is allowing good contact to both sides with the lefties having a better chance of getting power out of him.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

The Mets and Phillies are up next, with Megill and Walker on the hill. A 9.0 total, Philadelphia is favored by a fair margin, and I don’t really have any arguments against that. Either way, I think that this game will be a good source of some fantasy goodness, perhaps even the key secondary stack to bring home the bacon.

Mets 5 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo, McNeil
GPP note – Walker is allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate, so there’s a decent chance of these bats having a bigger game than what Vegas is calling for.

Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Turner/Stott
GPP note – Same as above, though the higher implied total will likely result in more ownership.

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Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians

Kremer and the Orioles will take on Bieber and the Guardians next, as we move back down to an 8.0 total. This will be Bieber’s first game back in a couple of months, so as usual, it’s not a bad idea to hedge with him as the first game back, for better or worse, can be quite volatile.

Orioles 4 star plays – Henderson/Rutschman, Santander
Orioles 3.5 star plays – O’Hearn/Mullins
GPP note – It can be hard to know how somebody will do in their return, but seeing that there’s upside to both sides, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge here.

Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Naylor, Gimenez
GPP note – Kremer can be a bit of a mixed bag, but with how disciplined these bats have been recently, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to run some stacks here. Righties have the power advantage, for what it’s worth.

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Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox

Next up we have the battle of the Sox, as the White Sox will take on the Red Sox. Toussaint and Sale will get the start here, along with a 9.5 total. Boston is the heavy favorite here, and hopefully that will translate to a big game by Chris Sale. What can I say, I just love watching him pitch!

White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Anderson/Vaughn/Jimenez
GPP note – Sale tends to allow about a home run per start but also carries big strikeout upside, so you can always try a one-off or mini-stack as a contrarian hedge option.

Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida, Verdugo/Turner
GPP note – Toussaint is allowing good contact and power to both sides but does have some strikeout upside in him. These bats will be popular, so running a few Toussiant lineups as a hedge move wouldn’t be a bad idea in case these guys blank.

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Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

We’ll head down south for our next two games, the first between the Mariners and Rangers. Miller and Dunning will start this one, and with them, a 9.0 total. Texas gets a slight nod from Vegas for this game, and while I can certainly see why, I do think that Seattle has a good chance of grabbing an underdog W here. We’ll see how things unfold, but that’s where I’m setting my flag today.

Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Raleigh/Crawford/Hernandez
GPP note – Moderate Vegas support here, but with how this matchup looks on paper (good contact and power being given up to both sides), I don’t mind grabbing a few extra shares.

Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe, Semien/Garcia
GPP note – Miller has been strict to righties but is allowing good contact and power to lefties.

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Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

Next up, Ragans and my Royals will take on Valdez and the Astros. An 8.0 total, Vegas has this Texas-based team as the favorite as well, though this time by a much bigger margin. I’m going to hope that my guys can steal some more wins from these guys, but if it plays out like it ought to, I’m sure that Houston will edge them out. I could see it being a bit closer than expected though, especially if Ragans can keep his momentum going.

Royals 4 star plays – Witt
Royals 3.5 star plays – Garcia/Olivares
GPP note – A bad spot overall, though Valdez is allowing some power to both sides and KC seems to be finding plenty of wins as of late, so who knows what might happen here.

Astros 4.5 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker
GPP note – Ragans continues to impress and racked up 7 strikeouts against these guys last week, so hedging is not out of the question.

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Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins

Daniel and the Angels will take on Lopez and the Twins next, along with an 8.5 total. The home team is the heavy favorite once again here, and all things considered regarding this matchup, I don’t see any real reason to argue with that.

Angels 4 star plays – Drury
Angels 3.5 star plays – O’Hoppe
GPP note – Another bad spot on the day, though Lopez is allowing some power to lefties on occasion. That puts one-offs and mini-stacks on the table as an option, but I would be careful to not do much more than that.

Twins 4.5 star plays – Polanco
Twins 4 star plays – Juilien/Kepler, Krilloff/Castro
GPP note – Good spot along with good Vegas support, making this a good spot to grab some less expensive bats with a solid implied total. Righties have the power advantage.

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Late games

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics

We’ll head out west for our late games next, starting with the Tigers and Athletics. Gipson-Long and Waldichuk will get the start here, along with an 8.0 total. Detroit gets the nod by about half a run, and while I do agree, I could see some reasonably interesting back-and-forth going on here. If that happens, it’ll happen on the cheap, which could be great for some budget bomber stacks.

Tigers 4 star plays – Torkelson/Carpenter, Rogers
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Cabrera
GPP note – A plus-matchup for these bats, Waldichuk has a slightly below-average strikeout rate and allows good power to both sides.

Athletics 4 star plays – Noda
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Kemp/Bown, Gelof
GPP note – Not the most appealing spot on the day, though Gipson-Long does allow some big power to lefties on occasion.

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St Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

Hudson and the Cardinals will take on Waldron and the Padres next, and with them, a 9.0 total. San Diego is the favorite here, and while I do agree with the overall result, I think that the Cards can make a little more noise here than anticipated.

Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Nootbaar/Edman Arenado
GPP note – Another spot where the upside looks to surpass Vegas’ support, this could be a decent under-the-radar spot to grab some medium or even larger-sized stacks.

Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Machado, Bogaerts
GPP note – Hudson’s strikeout rate is low and he’s allowing good contact to both sides (with some extra power to lefties), making this another good spot on the day to grab some high-upside bats.

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San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

And finally, we’ll wrap things up with the Giants and Dodgers. Manaea and Stone will get the start here, though at this time I do not have any Vegas insight. However, I’m sure that they’ll favor LA like they usually do, and for the most part I’m just going to roll with that. However, it will be a decent spot for San Francisco to do some damage, as Stone isn’t exactly a lights out stud.

Giants 4.5 star plays – Yastrzemski/Pederson
Giants 4 star plays – Flores/Estrada
GPP note – Another low-strikeout, high power upside spot, grabbing some medium-sized stacks here would be a decent option to go to tonight.

Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts, Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez/Smith
GPP note – Basically the same as above but with inflated ownership.

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And that’s going to do it for this one.  Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.  Best of luck today!

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