Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We’ve only got a couple of weeks left in the regular season, and we have a pretty tight wild card race on our hands. That’ll continue into today, as we’re met with three early games and an eight-game main slate. There’s plenty to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a decent assortment of pitching options today, and for the main slate, Peralta looks to be a fine all-purpose option that we can use for cash games. For tournaments, we can opt to pay up for studs going up against potent offenses, such as Wheeler and Verlander, or we can pay down a little for some arms in better spots, such as Woo, who has the second highest KSCORE on the slate. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
We’ll kick things off with the early games, as Quantrill and the Guardians will take on Singer and my Royals. A 9.0 total, Vegas has this game pretty close, though if Singer keeps doing what he’s been doing lately, I don’t see that being the case (as in Cleveland will have a good chance of blowing him up today).
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Naylor, Gimenez
GPP note – Singer is allowing above-average wOBA to both sides of the plate and a lot of power to lefties, so you can go after him from either side today.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez, Garcia
GPP note – Quantrill is allowing good xwOBA to lefties but has been pretty strict to righties, so perhaps only the main righties will be of use here.
Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds
Next up we have Ryan and the Twins set to take on Phillips and the Reds. A 9.5 total, Vegas likes the visitors here, as they’re getting a decent nod of approval in the form of a 5.0+ run total to Cincinnati’s sub-4.50 total. Overall I think that’s a fair call, though anything can happen in these September ballgames.
Twins 5 star plays – Polanco
Twins 4 star plays – Julien/Kepler, Lewis/Correa
GPP note – It’s a small sample size, but it seems that Phillips is no stranger to allowing plenty of power and contact to both sides, so you can go after him however you see fit.
Reds 4 star plays – De La Cruz, Votto
Reds 3.5 star plays – Friedl/Fraley/Martini/India, Benson
GPP note – Ryan carries plenty of strikeout upside but is also allowing above-average power to both sides of the plate. A lot of these bats are hitting righties well, making this a good spot to go with full stacks or hedge.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
We’ll round out the early games with the Mets and Marlins, as Butto and Cabrera will face off. An 8.5 total awaits us here, with the home team being the favorite by a decent margin. That’s probably how this one will go, unless the Mets decide to wake up and prove us all wrong.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo, Mcneil
GPP note – Basically the same as the previous spot, Cabrera carries strikeout upside but is allowing decent power to righties, so you can get a little creative here.
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez, Chisholm/Soler/Bell
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Burger/Sanchez
GPP note – Butto has shown some upside, remains inexpensive, and isn’t really allowing much of anything in terms of hard contact or power. If you do stack here, be sure to hedge with Butto as a budget SP2.
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Main slate
Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals
We’ll switch over to the main slate next, starting with the White Sox and Nationals. Vegas is giving us a 9.0 total for this one, and they have it split mostly down the middle. I will go ahead and disagree with this one, as I think that Chicago is in a much better spot than what they’re being given credit for. Hopefully they don’t flop and prove me wrong!
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi/Anderson/Vaughn
GPP note – Adon comes in with a low strikeout rate and is allowing good contact to both sides (lefties are getting more power out of him). The total here doesn’t jump off the page, so this could be a decent spot to attack.
Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Thomas/Meneses
GPP note – Not a great spot to attack, as Clevinger has been pitching above his DK salary. Smaller stacks are probably the answer here.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Next up we have the Phillies and Braves, with Wheeler and Wright on the mound. Another 9.0 total, this one is also split down the middle, with Atlanta having the slightest of nods. This one will probably all come down to whether or not Wheeler can contain this scorching hot offense, so we’ll see if he’s up for the task or not. Wright probably will not be, so the Phillies ought to do some damage here.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper, Turner
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Bohm
GPP note – Wright didn’t have a very good start against these guys last week, so they’ll be eager to jump on him since he hasn’t had any work since then.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna/Olson
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley, Ozuna/Rosario/Murphy
GPP note – Tough matchup for these bats, though Wheeler does allow some power to righties. It’s a tough matchup for him too, making this a prime high-salary hedging spot.
Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Peralta and the Brewers will take on Wainwright and the Cardinals next, along with yet another 9.0 total. The Brew Crew are the heavy favorites here, and all things considered, I can’t really argue against that. This may be an unavoidable chalky game on this slate, so your job may be to find other ways to combat ownership today.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Contreras/Santana/Adames
GPP note – Great spot for these bats, but seeing as they’re one of only two offenses with 5.0+ run totals, expect plenty of ownership. Try some wrap-around stacks or other approaches to help out with that.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Arenado/Nootbaar/Contreras
GPP note – Bad spot for these bats, so be careful here.
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Next up we have Crawford and the Red Sox taking on Montgomery and the Rangers. We move down to an 8.5 total, with the home team marked as the favorite here. Overall, I agree, though this is more along the lines of what I was expecting out of the Chicago/Washington game. Either way, I see Texas taking the W here, and I think that going contrarian with Boston could be a possible trap.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Turner/Duvall
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Yoshida/Casas
GPP note – Montgomery can be strict but overall carries a below-average strikeout rate and does allow the occasional homer.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien, Lowe/Garver
GPP note – Decent spot overall as Crawford allows good power to both sides and these guys need to rack up as many wins as possible to stay in the wild card game.
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Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
Means and Verlander will face off next, as the Orioles head to Houston to take on the Astros. Another 8.5 total, this one looks a lot like the previous game in Vegas’ eyes, though Baltimore likely has a better chance of beating the odds and coming through as a contrarian move. Grabbing some shares here could be a way to help with the chalk that will be Milwaukee and San Diego.
Orioles 4 star plays – Henderson/Rutschman/Santander
Orioles 3.5 star plays – O’Hearn/Mullins
GPP note – Another tough matchup for offense and starter alike, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to make some hedge moves here too, as it represents another high-ceiling, high-salary spot for both sides.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker
GPP note – Good spot for these bats, as Means tends to allow good contact and power to both sides of the plate.
Late games
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Speaking of which, we’ll head out west for our late games, starting with the Rockies and Padres. An 8.0 total, that doesn’t sound very exciting, but seeing that San Diego is being given more than 5.0 of those runs, they become a talking point today. On the flip side, I think that Colorado has a chance to make some contrarian noise, so wouldn’t it just be baseball being baseball if a game-stack wound up being the play today?
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon, Bryant
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Montero/Diaz
GPP note – Lowest total on the day, so these bats should see very little ownership. On the flip side, Wacha is allowing decent contact and power to both sides, so some stacking here isn’t out of the question.
Padres 5 star plays – Tatis
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Soto, Bogaerts, Profar
GPP note – Solid spot, but seeing as they’re the only other 5.0+ run total team on the day, expect plenty of ownership here.
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
Next up we’ll have Woo and the Mariners taking on Sears and the Athletics, as we move down to a 7.5 total. Seattle is the heavy favorite here, and while I do agree, I think that these offenses can come through and eclipse the over – even if just by a run or two. I like Seattle’s low implied total, as I think that they are in a spot to do a bit better than expected.
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Crawford/Hernandez/Raleigh
GPP note – Sears allows all sorts of power and contact to both sides of the plate, and their relatively low implied run total could keep ownership down.
Athletics 4 star plays – Noda/Gelof
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Brown/Kemp/Langeliers
GPP note – Not a ton to love here, though some of these bats are hitting for power against righties as of late, so some small or medium-sized contrarian stacks aren’t the worst idea you could think of today.
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap things up with the Tigers and Dodgers, as Rodriguez and Lynn will face off with an 8.5 total. The home team is favored here, though with how Lynn has looked recently (not much better than Singer), I could see this game being a bit more competitive than anticipated.
Tigers 4 star plays – Carpenter/Torkelson
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Cabrera/Rogers/Baez
GPP note – Lynn has had a heck of a time finding a groove lately. His strikeout rate is way down and he’s allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate. This might be the best contrarian spot on the day, or at least one of them.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts, Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Smith/Martinez, Taylor/Muncy
GPP note – E-Rod can hold his own, though righties are getting decent contact and power out of him.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Jun 6, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports