Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/26:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Braxton Garrett
- Kevin Gausman
- Kyle Bradish
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) @ Colorado Rockies – Game 1
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Caleb Ferguson/Ryan Pepiot
Rockies – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. Dodgers bats, in Coors, against weak pitching? Where the hell do I sign up for all of it? Pepiot intrigues me against a shitty COL lineup but it is Coors after all and that could backfire. Nolan Jones has been pretty impressive all season for COL so I am going to ride with him as my 2nd favorite bat in this game, behind the hot hitting JD Martinez. Mostly stacking the Dodgers side for the obvious reasons.
LAD 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Jones
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-278) @ Colorado Rockies – Game 2
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Bobby Miller
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. This game should look like Game 1 in that we are on the Dodgers bats with Jones as the main one-off. Miller is better than Pepiot but it’s close. I wouldn’t be shocked if one of the few below gets the game off for the Dodgers. Doubleheaders the last week of a long season probably feel tedious to players but rosters aren’t deep enough to get too crazy with lineups.
LAD 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Chris Taylor
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Jones
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-155) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zach Davies
White Sox – Jose Urena
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is not an overly exciting SP match-up which means we should be on the bats, somewhat heavily. I rarely end up on the White Sox but I think they make a very sneaky stack option. Rivera has crushed Urena in a small sample. The D’Backs need to take care of business in this series.
ARI 5-star plays: Emmanuel Rivera (3 for 7 with 3 HRs against Urena)
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
CHW 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (-250)
Pitchers:
A’s – Paul Blackburn
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. As a Twins fan, I want to see the Twins wake up to close the season but I don’t know if Blackburn is the guy they wake up against. I will stack them but lightly as I will focus on this game with mini-stacks, even on the OAK side. I think Rooker hits his 30th HR of the season in this series, against the team that drafted him. Ruiz has been rolling and if OAK was smart, he’d be in the lineup against the reverse splits of Ober.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Esteury Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willi Castro, Matt Wallner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles (-250)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 7.5. I absolutely love Bradish when he’s pitching at home and if you add in an overall weak offense and you get an interesting spot. With that being said, some of the WSH lineup has been swinging it really well and they do tend to put the ball in play more than average. I will be using Bradish for sure but I also want a few WSH mini-stacks tonight. Baltimore should dominate in this series so I look for them to get hot at the right time.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Garcia, CJ Abrams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
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Miami Marlins (-130) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Mets – Joey Lucchesi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am a fan of Garrett and I think this is a very interesting spot for him, despite a couple of the Mets having success against him previously. I also think this is a great spot for the Marlins bats as the guys who are hottest (below) are also the guys that have had success against Lucchesi in the past. The run total in this one doesn’t seem to match what I see with Miami but that’s OK, I trust what I see in the numbers.
MIA 5-star plays: Jorge Soler, Josh Bell
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Jake Burger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-125) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Rays – Zach Eflin
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. There’s an interesting combination of BvP and recent trends in this game, which has me really shocked that a Fenway Park game has a total of just 8 at this point. Eflin is certainly pretty damn good and he could put up a dominant performance while Houck has shown strong upside, I think the Rays bats are heating up just enough as they head into postseason play.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays (-160)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Michael King
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. Gausman has allowed 2 earned runs in 20 innings with 31 Ks against the Yankees this season. King has looked great as an SP and is coming off of a ridiculous start, which game against the Blue Jays. I am going to fade him tonight, against my better judgement. I just don’t love SPs making back to back starts against the same opponent. Stacking the Blue Jays makes a ton of sense based on that.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .165 against RHPs.
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners (-130)
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I realize we have a low total in this one but I do think we see the over come through. I don’t love how Javier has thrown this season, especially on the road while Kirby faces a very difficult HOU lineup. Tucker and Alvarez are one of the highest upside combos on the slate, in my opinion. Raleigh has had success against Javier and SEA needs him to wake up a bit as a majority of the lineup has had some struggles recently.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Cal Raleigh
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs.
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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (-170)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Tigers – Reese Olson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Olson is super interesting but he has been hit by a couple of the guys below plus Velazquez has been rocking the power swing over the last week. I think the Tigers bats are in a decent spot but can we really trust them? I think I will mostly just play Olson with very little bat exposure in this one, to be honest.
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt
4-star plays: Maikel Garcia, Nelson Velazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres (-130) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Padres – Seth Lugo
Giants – Kyle Harrison
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Padres smacked Harrison recently and they have crushed LHPs this season, kind of in an under the radar fashion since they have underachieved most of the season. Harrison has big time stuff but it’s a tough spot, even at home. Lugo keeps doing solid work out of the rotation and he gets a pretty blah SF lineup at this point. Lugo should be a decent option tonight.
SD 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against LHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Lamonte Wade
4-star plays: Thairo Estrada, Marco Luciano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies (-165)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Phillies roster has absolutely demolished Keller in previous meetings. The 4 PHI guys I have listed below are a combined 24 for 57 with 14 extra-base hits against him. I would call that being demolished. Nola has been pretty up and down as he’s coming off of an elite performance. Some of the PIT guys are swinging it really well of late so maybe they make sense as a mini-stack option.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jared Triolo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians (-110)
Pitchers:
Reds – Hunter Greene
Guardians – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Both SPs are very viable with huge upside. I think they are both super volatile as well, however. CIN’s lineup has the GPP winning feel to it while the CLE lineup just feels blah but they probably do some damage to Greene that we weren’t expecting. Friedl and CES have been rolling for CIN as they try to close in on a postseason berth.
CIN 5-star plays: TJ Friedl
4-star plays: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Will Benson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bo Naylor, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves (-135)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Justin Steele
Braves – Bryce Elder
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. What a text for Justin Steele tonight as the Braves absolutely wreck LHPs at this point. Austin Riley is hot at the plate but I left him out of my list below, for some stupid reason. Some of the CHC bats grade out well in this match-up but it’s tough to look anywhere other than the ATL side. Chicago needs to pick up a couple of Ws in this series, so does Steele step up?
CHC 5-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Michael Harris
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 against LHPs.
Texas Rangers (-165) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Rangers – Cody Bradford
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Nearly the entire TEX lineup is rocking an OPS of .900+ over the last week. It’s going to be a tough spot for Detmers but he has fared pretty damn well against TEX so far in 2023. Bradford intrigues me because the Angels are striking out a shit ton over the last few weeks (12 times per game over the last week, on average). Feels like this is the game that can make or break your MME pool.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Drury, Michael Stefanic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers (-178)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Cardinals just scratched Thompson and replaced him with Mikolas so I had to scramble and re-adjust (was going to be on the Brewers). I think MIL can get to Mikolas but it’s not as clear as it was. I like Houser in this spot, as STL plays a number of young guys with Arenado and Contreras on the IL. We probably aren’t fully stacking MIL at this point but a few one-offs can make sense.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Jordan Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Tyrone Taylor, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Miami Marlins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
Jun 16, 2022; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) celebrates with designated hitter Bryce Harper (3) after hitting a two run home run against the Washington Nationals during the third inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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