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DFS NFL Week 2 DraftKings Milly Maker Review

The Milly Maker is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing years of winning lineups!

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) celebrates during their 31-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Sept. 17, 2023.

Daniel Jones had people dancing all over his grave after getting blown out week 1 and a slow start to week 2, but he came surging back with a vengeance as he brought his 2 best play makers with him in this winning build. Let’s take a look at the lineup that won Sportsking101 $1,022,667 on Draft King’s Week 2 Millionaire Maker contest.

Week 2 Points
Daniel Jones 34.74
Saquon Barkley 27.2
Rachaad White 21.3
Keenan Allen 34.1
Christian Kirk 24.96
Nico Collins 30.8
Darren Waller 13.6
Zack Moss 20.7
Buccaneers 17
Total 224.4

Stacking

Week 2 brought the return of the QB + 2 stack with no bring back and also a secondary stack. Secondary stacks are something we see in most Milly Maker builds – about 64% of the time in 2022. It’s important to note as well that a bring back isn’t always necessary as we found out by studying Milly Maker builds over the past couple of years and backesting in the Domination Station.

Team Stack

Daniel Jones 34.74 FPTS + Saquon Barkley 27.2 FPTS + Darren Waller 13.6 FPTS.

Game Stack

Nico Collins 30.8 FPTS + Zack Moss 20.70 FPTS

Total Stacking Points: 127.04 FPTS
Total Stacking Ownership: 37.16%
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NFL DFS

 

$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership

Week 2 Ownership
Daniel Jones 3.28%
Saquon Barkley 8.41%
Rachaad White 15.79%
Keenan Allen 11.70%
Christian Kirk 6.14%
Nico Collins 10.98%
Darren Waller 5.03%
Zack Moss 9.46%
Buccaneers 9.76%
Total 80.55%

 

One of the constants when looking back at prior Milly Maker winners through the years are that you will have several weeks of under 100% ownership. In fact, you had 8 weeks of under 100% in 2022. Everyone was off of the Giants this week after a horrific week 1 showing and thus the Jones/Barkley/Waller stack combined for only 16% total ownership between the 3 players. This lineup only had one player over 15% and 7 players at 10% or less, so it was impressive that such a contrarian lineup had so many good plays that the field overlooked. I think what stands out the most is you did have players in great spots that were overlooked because of some of the more enticing matchups. Furthermore, you had some great direct leverage opportunities in those games like Christian Kirk for Jacksonville – when the field was playing Calvin Ridley.

Top Leverage Plays

Daniel Jones at 3%

We talked about this a lot in DFS. What happened last week? who went off? Well now we can probably fade that player and play the guy who was horrible last week but is in a better spot this week. It’s the stud coming off of a dud narrative and Daniel Jones was that guy this week. After a horrendous week one, DJ returned to the 2022 version of himself and was the top player on the slate.

Saquon Barkley at 8%

Barkley was very similar to Daniel Jones in that he was in a great spot this week too and smashed.  He got 7 targets that he turned into 6 catches and a touchdown so he’s the kind of Receiving RB that you can stack with his QB. This isn’t the first time that Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley have been in a winning GPP build together and I’m guessing it won’t be the last.

Christian Kirk at 6%

Kirk was a great direct leverage play off of Ridley who was 23% owned and $7200. As we often see, when you have a great game environment that the field is going to be on, it’s best in GPP’s to get exposure to the other players on offense like Kirk in this game.

Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest

Week 2 Pricing FPTS per Dollar
Daniel Jones $6,000 5.79X
Saquon Barkley $8,000 3.4X
Rachaad White $5,500 3.87X
Keenan Allen $7,100 4.80X
Christian Kirk $5,100 4.89X
Nico Collins $4,800 6.41X
Darren Waller $5,500 2.47X
Zack Moss $4,700 4.40X
Buccaneers $3,200 5.31X
Total $49,900 4.49X

 

This was the 2nd week in a row where the winning lineup didn’t need all $50,000 of salary. Nico Collins was the top value on the slate at $4800 with 30 points. He hit over 6X his salary which is typically what we see from at least one player in every Milly Maker winning lineup. Overall, the lineup was under 5X which is what is expected from a winning build of only 224 points – on the low side for winning builds as the average across the last 3 seasons has been 240 points. Another thing to note is the Bucs D was a pay up option that panned out and is something we want to look at targeting in GPP’s as DST’s over $3,000 often make it into winning GPP builds.

Ceiling

After 2 weeks of the NFL Season, we’ve had 2 lower winning scores than we’re used to but the current average of 228 points can certainly change quickly so I wouldn’t read too much into it until we have a larger sample size. The average winning score in 2022 was 240 points. When scores are lower, building for at least QB +1 versus at least QB + 2 is more likely to win as we’ve seen countless times dating back to the 2020 season.  Furthermore, not forcing the bring back is something we’ll keep an eye on as it won here and was prevalent in many winning Milly Maker builds.

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