10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 3 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

Want to be the next DFS Army big winner?! ?

Join Today and use code NFL23 for 15% off a VIP Membership!!

 

Week 2 Recap:

Draftkings:

Jared Goff – 26.92 pts | QB3 | 4.0x value

Baker Mayfield – 21.38 pts. | QB12 | 5.2x value

Zack Moss- 20.70 pts | RB8 | 4.4x value

Nico Collins – 30.60 pts | WR4 | 6.4x value

Sam Laporta – 11.30 pts | TE6 | 3.1x value

Fanduel:

(points and player rankings are DK only, because FD can’t make it easily searchable)

Jordan Love- 20.34 pts| QB14 | 2.8x value

Khalil Herbert – 6.3 pts | RB27 | 1.1x value

DK Metcalf – 10.5 | WR30 | 1.4x value (Missed time with an injury)

Irv Smith Jr. – 2.0 pts | TE35 | 0.4x value

Zay Jones – 0 pts | INJURED During game.

SMASHED on DK this week. Average value of 4.62x salary of those five plays. Unfortunately on FD we took a few bigger swings and ended up with an average of 1.4x salary if we don’t include Zay Jones who was injured mid game. Really starting to feel like we’re finding a groove on some these teams and which of the low owned spots are good, so let’s smash this week and get someone the milly!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Desmond Ridder QB Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 1.92%

Salary: DK $5000

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. In a week with lots of sort of low total games, and chalk clearly coming on games like the Chargers/Vikings, and Mahomes against the awful Bears who don’t even have a defensive coordinator, so there’s plenty of sneaky GPP options at QB that you can use and still get pieces to that game without having a ton of total ownership.

Watching last week’s game, I thought Ridder and this Atlanta offense started to click. Ridder looked more comfortable passing the ball, and was able to take off 10 times to add 39 yards on the ground. This week he gets to go against the Lions who are one of the worst defenses in the league, especially against the pass.

The 46.5 game total is one of the better on the slate, and with only a three point spread, I think this is a sneaky game environment to go off for some big scores.

Ridder can be paired with Drake London who should be very popular this week, but you can also get sneaky by having him with Bijan Robinson and by doing so you are essentially guaranteeing you have a piece of every single touchdown. The low owned WR I like is Mack Hollins, who got a couple of deep shots from Ridder last week and can pay off his salary in a hurry.

Ridder WILL be the nuts at some point this season (sort of how we saw Danny Dimes last week) because of his massive rushing upside. They NEED to let him take off more, and maybe that happens this week in Detroit in a potential explosive game environment and if that does happen, watch out because he’s going to drop a 30 burger on everyone.

 

Geno Smith QB Seattle Seahawks

Ownership: DK 6.79%

Salary: DK $5700

Weirdly cheap for a guy that threw for 328 yards and Two TD’s last week up against another very mediocre defense in the Panthers. He even got a few rushes in last week tacking on 20 yards to his total.

Panthers are not good. Seattle is at home. Everyone is healthy (Metcalf has missed practice but it’s just to deal with sore ribs). Lock and load.

Kenneth Walker is getting some buzz and rightfully so because he’s a stud, but the Panthers did look decent against the run last week so we get some correlated leverage on the Walker chalk by hammering the passing game of the Seahawks. Love pairing Geno with DK but Lockett/JSN are fine too.

James Cook RB Buffalo Bills 

Ownership: DK 3.67%

Salary: DK $6400

RB12 statistically this season and HASN’T scored a TD! That’s bonkers. He’s been vultured by Lats Murray and a statistically pretty poor game from Allen in the opener has held him back so far.

The production outside of finding the end zone has been really good and encouraging though. Averaging 84.5 yards per game, and 16.6 fantasy points. Has brought in 4 targets a game, which gives him a really nice floor on Draftkings, where I think he’s a much better play. Think he’s got similar upside to all the higher priced backs, and a better floor than the cheapies, and for some reason just isn’t getting any love.

KJ Osborn WR Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: 4.79%

Salary: DK $5600

KJ Osborn is on the field for 95% of the Vikings passing plays this season. This is a high total game with both offenses likely to go off against mediocre defenses. Osborn can get there this week on volume alone. Addison and JJettas are the big play makers here, but interestingly, Osborn is getting more targets on play action than either of them and the Chargers have one of the worst linebacking corps in the league so if the Vikes can get them to bite on play action then I think Osborn could get peppered with targets in the middle of the field.

Either way, getting low owned pieces to the highest total game on the slate is always a good idea and I’ll be all over Osborn this week, in Cousins stacks and as a one off.

John Bates TE Washington Commanders

Ownership: DK 0.28% (if/when Logan Thomas is ruled out this will go up, but not likely past 5%)

Salary: DK $2800

When Logan Thomas went down with a concussion last week, it was Bates who got all the work as the pass catching TE, bringing in 3 of 5 targets for 46 yards.

This was a bit surprising because TE3 Cole Turner, is who is known as the better pass catcher, but it was Bates who got the work, likely because HC Ron Rivera trusted him to play more. With Thomas still not practicing as of Thursday, it’s likely they turn to Bates (and potentially Turner) again against the Buffalo Bills.

Sam Howell has shown so far this year, that he is very risk averse when it comes to passing the ball, very rarely throwing bad balls and only has one pick through 2 games. That aversion could potentially lead to lots of targets for Bates while under duress from the Bills pass rush.

I’m not in love with any of the top TE’s on the slate, so I’m very interested in paying down this week, and Bates is one of those guys that I’ll be sliding into my lineups to help me get higher priced studs elsewhere.

NOTE: With a potential Tropical Cyclone affecting this game, he might be an even better play! If Thomas is active or trending that way, I’ll update this spot with a new TE.

Join the DFS Army today and gain access to our daily/weekly cheat sheets, Domination Station Optimizer, Research Stations, Free and VIP Articles, Coaching, and more! Code UPNORTH saves you 10% on a VIP or Core4 Membership!

Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Deshaun Watson QB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: FD 2.92%

Salary: FD $7500

With the injury to Nick Chubb, I expect more of the load to fall on Deshaun Watson and the props also show that with him projecting at around 230 yards passing, 1 TD pass, and almost 30 yards rushing.

He looked downright awful against the Steelers last week, but the Titans are not the Steelers, especially in the secondary as they are one of the worst and that should benefit the passing game here.

He’ll have plenty of opportunities to shine here and I think he has a real chance to get in the end zone himself. He has a 15 point FD floor with 25+ upside.

Pair him with Amari Cooper, David Njoku, or Elijah Moore, but I do think that potentially you could run him naked if you wanted in a large GPP. I have no real interest in any of the Titans as a run back, outside of Henry but he’s pricey.

Joshua Kelley RB Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: FD: 1.36%

Salary: FD $6100

Kelley dudded as the chalk last week and that is going to keep the ownership incredibly low. He’s in arguably a better spot here, in a game that has a 54 point total and only a 1 point spread.

Kelley is the second highest favorite to score here at -140 behind Austin Ekeler, but at this point I don’t expect Ekeler to play after missing practice again on Thursday. There’s potential he’s active, but even if he is, I think Kelley will get some decent run.

The Vikings literally can’t stop anyone on the run, and what we’ve seen from Flores and the Vikings defense so far this year is that they ply similar to the Patriots and try to eliminate a teams number on threat. That would be the pass game for the Chargers and could mean that there are very few stacked boxes for Kelley to run against.

Ultimate bounce back spot and in typical DFS fish fashion, everyone is running away from the chalk that busted that’s in a smash spot the next week.

Skyy Moore WR Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: FD 2.7%

Salary: FD $5600

The Bears are terrible and this is a cheap and easy way to get exposure to the high powered Chiefs offense in a smash spot.

Moore’s week 2 stats are a bit inflated as he he took a pass for 54 yards on the last play of the game, but he is still trending towards being a bigger part of this offense, and found the end zone for the first time in his career.

WR2 in terms of snap count and targets (weirdly Justin Watson is number one, but I don’t expect that to continue) and has the highest upside of any of the receivers, especially considering the draft capital they have in Moore.

Potential big week and as I said above, easy way to get exposure to this high powered offense in the smash spot of the week.

DeAndre Hopkins WR Tennessee Titans

Ownership: FD 4.4%

Salary: FD: $6500

Hopkins, even with a bit of an injury, is playing a ton. Only 70% of the routes last week but played more than probably anyone thought given his limited practice participation during the week. Leading the Titans in targets, almost doubling everyone else on the team, and is Tannehill’s go to on 3rd down.

With Hopkins getting limited practices in this week, I think we can see him closer to the 13 targets he had in week 1, than the 5 he had had in week 2. Cleveland gave up some big plays to Pickett and the Steelers last week, and Hopkins could really eat here. Due some touchdown regression and this is a great spot for it.

Adam Trautman TE Denver Broncos

Ownership: FD 3.07%

Salary: FD $4300

After a mediocre performance last week when he was popular, Trautman gets another good spot against a pass funnel TE defense in the Dolphins.

Cheap with TD upside which is exactly what you are looking for on FD. I don’t love that he only got 1 target last week, but he is playing 82% of the snaps, with Dulcich out and I expect him to continue to play around that sort of snap share and will bounce back with the targets.

***STREAMER SPECIAL DEFENSE***

Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings (+1, 54)

Ownership: DK 1.7% FD 2.1%

Salary: DK $2700/FD $3600

I’m of the belief that we could potentially the first ever defense against a QB in the same lineup in the milly maker this week. 54 point totals aren’t typically spots to target a defense, especially on the road, but the Vikings are #notgood and are turning the ball over at just an incredible rate. They have more injuries on an offensive line that already wasn’t good and that will lead to increased sacks and pressures on Kirk Cousins. Cousins is a -150 favorite to throw at least 1 pick and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more. I can see the Chargers losing this game and still putting up 12-15 points from the D spot which would smash value.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP

Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy and Season Long NFL content in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NFL DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and use promo code UPNORTH to lock in at 10% off the monthly membership fee. You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team.

Featured Image: