As we gear up for an exciting NFL DFS season in 2023, let’s dive into the core positions that can make or break your fantasy football lineup. This quick guide provides actionable tips to help you build a winning roster and compete with high volume players (sharks). For more insights and discussions, follow me on Twitter @Choppodong or find me in the NFL and/or Beginner Coaching rooms in our VIP Discord Community.
I’m absolutely committed to helping you elevate your DFS game!
- Efficiency Trumps Volume: Beyond raw attempts, focus on efficiency metrics like TDs per game, Yards per game, and QBR. These stats offer a clearer picture of a QB’s DFS potential. Don’t be swayed by superficial stats like completions or attempts.
- Home Field Advantage Matters: Historically, home QBs tend to outperform their road counterparts. Favor QBs playing at home, especially when they’re the favorite. Even underdog home QBs often outscore favored road QBs.
- QB Consistency and Savings: Quarterbacks offer reliable points since they’re involved in every offensive play. Capitalize on this consistency by allocating budget to other NFL DFS positions. Don’t overspend on a high-priced QB when you can find value elsewhere.
Running Back (RB)
- Predict Gameflow with Vegas: Anticipate game scripts based on Vegas odds. Positive scripts favor RBs leading, while negative scripts see RBs playing catch-up. Prioritize workhorse RBs with significant offensive involvement. But, look for those pass-catching RBs in the underdog role.
- Touches and Goal-Line Work: Volume matters, but touchdowns are crucial. Focus on RBs with red zone and goal-line opportunities, as these situations often lead to scoring plays. An often overlooked term, The Green Zone, is where 75-80% of a running back’s fantasy scoring happens. The Green Zone is inside the 10 yard line. Our NFL Research Station shows RB usage here in one quick glance!
- Cash Game RB Traits: Ideal cash game RBs are three-down players, backed by favorable Vegas odds, and playing at home. Streamline your player pool by targeting these attributes.
Wide Receiver (WR)
- Target Hog Receivers: Prioritize wide receivers with a high volume of targets. Opportunities translate to fantasy points. Red zone targets provide an additional boost. Again, Green Zone targets provide even more boost.
- Mindful of Injuries: While some injuries are manageable, foot, ankle, and groin injuries can severely impact NFL DFS performance. Prioritize healthy receivers with agility and burst. Tune in Sunday mornings for that latest reports…and Upperslad’s Final List!
- Garbage Time Impact: Late-game situations can elevate WR scores. Look for primary receivers in teams likely to play catch-up, as garbage time often benefits wide receivers more than QBs. My weekly article, Box Checkers, shows you how to spot these players early in a week and focus your building around them as solo plays or key parts of stacks.
Tight End (TE)
- Utilize Targeted TEs: TEs with consistent targets are valuable assets. Focus on TEs involved in the passing game, not just red zone threats.
- Implied Team Total Matters: Higher team totals correlate with TE involvement. Red zone targets near the goal line contribute significantly to TE points.
- Balancing TE Investment: TEs are volatile, making them a potential cap-saving opportunity. Consider investing more in a quality TE if the matchup is favorable.
- Defense: Worth the Investment: Don’t underestimate top defenses. The price difference isn’t as significant as other positions, and elite defenses capitalize on turnovers and sacks. Most modern lineups are looking to punt team defenses. You can find easy contrarian plays if you have salary leftover to pay up some.
- Game Script and Favorable Matchups: Prioritize defenses of teams expected to lead. Favorable game scripts result in more opportunities for turnovers and points. Look for 6+ point favorites. When you find 10+ point favorites…even better!
- Opposing Team’s Point Total: Opt for defenses facing opponents with lower implied point totals. This strategy offers cash-game safety and applies across various price ranges. The key numbers here are opponents implied to score fewer than 22, 20, and best of all….18 points. TIP – Find a defense favored by 10 points or more and in a matchup with the underdog implied to score fewer than 18 points and smash that all-in button! Historically, this is the cherry-ist of matchups for a defense.
Mastering NFL DFS in 2023 demands a strategic blend of player performance analysis, matchup evaluation, and game script prediction. Incorporate these updated tips into your strategy to gain an edge and enhance your chances of building a winning DFS lineup. For continuous DFS discussions and insights, connect with me on Twitter or join our vibrant DFS Army community.
Remember, DFS outcomes are influenced by various factors, and while these tips provide valuable guidance, adaptability and informed decision-making remain paramount.