Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s a 10-game Monday that we have split 60/40. The early games consist of either showdowns or a couple or 2-game slates, and that’s all followed by a 6-game main slate. It may not yet be the 4th, but at first glance, it looks like we may get plenty of fireworks. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
To put it mildly, the early games look rough. 7 of the 8 starters have SIERAs north of 4.5, and two of them break the 6.0 mark. Yikes! As you can imagine, allowed x/wOBA and ISO are way up there too, so if you are playing cash anywhere, you may just have to pay up for Garrett and move on. For the main slate, Ryan looks to be a fine cash game target, though there are others with plenty of upside in less-desirable matchups (Snell, for example, leads the way in many categories today, and so long as he can minimize the damage given up to Ohtani/Trout, may come through for us). As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
We’ll kick things off with our Texas on Texas game, as the Astros will take on the Rangers. Javier and Perez get the start here along with a 9.5 total. Like most of the early games, both offenses are in a good spot to go off, so don’t be surprised to see some high-scoring affairs.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Abreu
GPP note – Like most of the spots for the early games, these bats are in a fine spot. Traditional splits are the way to go against Perez and his low strikeout rate.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager/Semien
Rangers 4 star plays – Heim/Lowe, Taveras/Garcia
GPP note – Javier carries an even lower strikeout rate than Perez somehow and is allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate, so you can go after him any way you desire.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Next up we have the Cubs and Brewers, with Smyly and Teheran on the mound. A 9.0 total, it’s more of the same as the first game, so we’ll see if that total can move up over the next few hours.
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Suzuki
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Bellinger/Madrigal
GPP note – Teheran is allowing decent xwOBA to lefties and solid power to both sides of the plate.
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Contreras, Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Adames
GPP note – These bats aren’t hitting lefties as well as they could be, but Smyly is allowing plenty to both sides, so this could be a good spot to go since their Vegas total isn’t off the charts.
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
Weaver and the Reds will take on Irvin and the Nationals next, as we move up to a 10.5 total. We also have some weather concerns here, so be sure to keep your eye on the skies as there are plenty of big bats here that will tank some lineups if they get rained out.
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – Fraley/Votto, India/McLain
GPP note – Irvin can hold his own on occasion, so it wouldn’t be the worst thing to have a few hedge spots as a budget SP2. Otherwise, he’s allowing decent wOBA to lefties.
Nationals 4 star plays – Candelario/Thomas
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses/Abrams
GPP note – Weaver is another arm allowing lots to both sides along with a low strikeout rate, so stacks of any size are welcome here.
St Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
Next up we have Mikolas and the Cardinals set to take on Garrett and the Marlins. This is the one game that we get a sub-4.0 total for one of the offenses in the early games, which will make their opponent (Garrett) a popular option. That’s certainly the way to go for cash games, but we can always go against the grain for tournaments!
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Contreras/DeJong
GPP note – The lone rough spot in the early games, you could always go here as a contrarian pivot since there are so many other juicy matchups to go to.
Marlins 4.5 star plays – Chisholm/Arraez
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler, Cooper
GPP note – Mikolas is allowing good xwOBA to both sides and comes in with a below-average strikeout rate, so you can stack here despite the low total.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Main slate
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Orioles and Yankees. We get a modest 8.5 total along with some potential rain concerns, so as always, be sure to keep an eye on things here. Otherwise, Vegas has this game split down the middle, so we could see some back-and-forth.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 4 star plays – Henderson/Mullins
GPP note – German is coming off of perfection, but overall he is allowing good xwOBA and ISO to both sides of the plate.
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo/Torres
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Stanton/Donaldson, Volpe
GPP note – Not a great spot, as Wells comes in with a good strikeout rate and is only really allowing power to righties as of late.
Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians
Next up we have Elder and the Braves taking on Williams and the Guardians. A 9.0 total, the majority of that goes to the visitors, though I suppose that should be expected. However, Atlanta’s opponent isn’t exactly a pushover, so be sure to at least take a second look at the matchup before blindly stacking against him.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson, Albies/Riley/Ozuna/Rosario
GPP note – Good Vegas support as usual, though Williams has held his own in his first two starts. Granted, that was against Oakland and KC, but it is at least some sign of life from him. Anyway, I won’t tell you not to stack here but consider hedging for a budget SP2 just in case.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Naylor/Bell
GPP note – A very average matchup overall, I think small or medium-sized stacks would be most beneficial here. Lefties get a slight statcast advantage.
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
Moving right along, our next game will have Cox and my Royals taking on Ryan and the Twins. Another 9.0 total, the home team gets the nod this time, along with half a run more support for the favored team than in the previous game. Ryan will surely be a popular option today, and while I’m sure he’ll get the best of us, I don’t think it’s completely out of the question to try a bat or two against him in a few lineups that don’t include him.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Witt
GPP note – Not a great spot but Ryan is allowing some decent contact and power to righties, so you could roll out some contrarian mini-stacks against him.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Farmer, Vazquez
GPP note – Cox can be tough, so we may see 2-3 innings of the Twins being quiet, but they’ll probably wake up against the bullpen, so don’t tilt too early.
The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB Research Station includes today’s DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as a part of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres
We’ll head to the late games now, starting with the Angels and Padres. Barria and Snell get the start here, along with an 8.0 total. Despite the lower price tag, Snell has been a rockstar as of late. Aside from Trout and Ohtani, he’s in a spot to rack up a really nice score here, so don’t forget about him today.
Angels 4 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 3.5 star plays – Escobar
GPP note – Snell has been incredible lately, so fading or hedging are both good options.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4.5 star plays – Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts
GPP note – Barria has been about the opposite of Snell, so fire away. Lefties have the statcast advantage but righties are getting plenty of power out of him, too.
Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants
Next up we have Woo and the Mariners set to take on Webb and the Giants. This 7.5 total is the lowest on the day, which automatically makes both pitchers interesting options. That’s especially true for Woo, as he’s quite cheap over on DK, and could easily be the SP2 of the day.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Hernandez/Crawford/France/Raleigh
GPP note – Not a great spot overall, but Webb is allowing some decent contact and power to righties, so taking some swings against him isn’t a bad idea.
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson
Giants 3.5 star plays – Wade, Flores/Davis
GPP note – Woo has been pitching much better than his DK salary would indicate, so you may want to take advantage of that by hedging, should you decide to go here.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap up the day with the Pirates and Dodgers, as Keller and Grove will square off. I don’t have any Vegas insight yet for this one, though I’m sure the Dodgers will be favored as they usually are at home. That aside, they aren’t exactly rolling out an ace against the Pirates, so I could see this one having some back-and-forth.
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Santana, McCutchen/Suwinski
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Davis
GPP note – Grove is allowing high x/wOBA to lefties and power to both sides, so you can run some stacks here with a good amount of confidence.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 3.5 star plays – Smith/Martinez, Muncy
GPP note – Keller allows the occasional power to lefties, but for the most part has been steady as of late.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.