Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/1:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Zack Wheeler
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Dylan Cease
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Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles (-140)
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This game feels more like a mini-stack one than a full stack. Both Ober and Bradish line up decently, with Ober being in the better spot but Bradish is probably the better pitcher overall. Each guy leans being a reverse splits guy on the mound and Minnesota has the more dangerous RHBs at this point. Gallo appears to be heating up but I rarely recommend him at this point.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres (-160) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Padres – Michael Wacha
Reds – Brandon Williamson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. We have a very interesting game early in the day. Williamson hasn’t been great and SD can do some damage to LHPs. If Machado and Tatis start to wake up, we could see a big game out of a SD stack. CIN has cooled some but they have some guys still swinging it well plus Votto has crushed Wacha in past meetings. Over the last week, CIN has 11 HRs and 12 SBs so their stack upside is extremely inviting.
SD 5-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against LHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Jake Fraley
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Matt McLain
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-170)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Eury Perez
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Oh man, I am really torn in this spot. I am a huge fan of Eury Perez, partially because he helped win me $50K but also because the kid is electric and a future Cy Young winner. With that being said, the Braves are just crushing baseballs and he’s on the road against them. I can’t trust him but I would love to see him show up and shove in this spot. Can I trust the Braves? Probably but I do it with hesitation. Morton is a fine option but he doesn’t excite me overall.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 against RHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers (-140) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 8. I want to believe that Burnes will wake up again but the Pirates have a few guys heating back up. Oviedo has the better match-up but is he all that strong of an SP? Yelich is a guy that I think gives him trouble but the rest of the lineup shouldn’t be too dangerous. I am really torn here but I would guess my lean is some PIT mini-stacks with some Oviedo exposure along with Yelich as a one-off in builds.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Owen Miller, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-120) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Should be a great SP match-up in this one. Glasnow has tremendous K upside overall and that has a shot to be realized against this Seattle squad. A few of the TB bats are starting to heat back up but Kirby is capable of beating any team in baseball. I don’t see myself getting too heavy with bats in this one as I imagine I will be overweight on both SPs in my MME.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Tigers – Zach Logue?
Rockies – Jeff Criswell?
Rundown:
We are waiting on SP announcements. We get a series in Coors but it’s between two teams that I have very little interest in. Tovar has been rolling over the last month and he makes an excellent one-off option. If Logue does start for DET, maybe we can see some vintage CJ Cron against an LHP? Torkelson has been swinging the HR stick but that’s about all he’s been doing. He still looks like a bust to me.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Spencer Torkelson, Matt Vierling
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Ezequiel Tovar
4-star plays: CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs.
New York Yankees @ St Louis Cardinals (-115) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Yankees – Luis Severino
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. As a reminder, we have to pay attention to lineups for doubleheaders as teams tend to flip flop pitching randomly between the two games. Rizzo has 3 HR and a 2B in his 9 for 19 career numbers against Flaherty. I always want to stack against Flaherty due to his walk issues but the Yankees are kind of blah overall. Severino has struggled a ton with RHBs but he has been throwing the ball better recently. Going to be an interesting game but right now I lean towards the over.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .174 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ St Louis Cardinals – Game 2
Pitchers:
Yankees – Undecided
Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore
Rundown:
We are waiting on the NYY SP announcement. As a reminder, we have to pay attention to lineups for doubleheaders as teams tend to flip flop pitching randomly between the two games.
NYY 5-star plays: Harrison Bader
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .163 against LHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-160)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Kutter Crawford
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Kikuchi is really intriguing but he’s so painful to roster. He can look absolutely dominant one batter and then look like he shouldn’t be in the majors the next. I do like using LHPs against Boston a bit so he’s going to be one of my higher owned SPs. Crawford has been decent but this TOR squad doesn’t strike out much against RHPs. I think Vlad goes deep today, to be honest.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
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San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets (-155)
Pitchers:
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Mets – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. At this point, Lindor is the leader in the clubhouse for my Dinger call. He is 8 for 18 with 3 HRs against DeSclafani. I don’t envision myself picking on both SPs a ton, especially Verlander at home. He obviously isn’t the Verlander of old but he’s still really solid and the SF squad can strike out at a pretty decent clip. Some of the Mets have been swinging it well, so they certainly could wake up as a team today.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Patrick Bailey
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers (-135)
Pitchers:
Astros – Hunter Brown
Rangers – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This game is a tough one to figure out. I love both SPs but I think both offenses could explode at the same time. Houston has a few guys who have absolutely crushed Eovaldi in the past but this version of Eovaldi has to be better, right? Brown has a ton of talent but his reverse splits are a bit worrisome against the hottest bats of the Rangers (the guys listed below).
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Ezequiel Duran
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox (-178) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Athletics – Kyle Muller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This one sets up to be all about the White Sox. Cease has really turned his season around and since I started this article, the White Sox have moved to a -220 favorite in this one. Robert keeps smashing everybody, especially LHPs. If he’s able to get some help, the White Sox could be the sneaky GPP winning stack. Seth Brown is about the only OAK bat doing anything right now.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against RHPs.
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Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-210)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Mackenzie Gore
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get a great pitching match-up in this one. Wheeler was lit up by WSH earlier this season but I don’t see it happening again, even if they don’t strike out all that much. Gore is one of my favorite arms in baseball and I think he could put up a great performance here. He has struggled with Turner and Realmuto in previous match-ups so it isn’t some slam dunk spot for Gore.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs.
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago Cubs (-140)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Tanner Bibee
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Both SPs are more reverse splits, especially Bibee. That should come in handy today as I think the Cubs are one of the more likely teams to run out platoon bats. Stroman has been great all season and we know the CLE lineup lacks any kind of real power. Stroman was bad in London so maybe there’s a bit of a hangover but I am not going to be betting on that.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Madrigal, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
Angels – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. This one definitely has the feel of an explosive game stacking option. A handful of D’Backs have smacked Anderson around, a lot while the Angels have a bunch of guys swinging it really well, with OPS’ over 1.000 across the last week or so. Ohtani should be the obvious Dinger call pick but I won’t select him because I don’t like shooting fish. Ketel Marte could be the Dinger call but I’ve mentally committed to Lindor at this point.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Lourdes Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-240) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Dodgers have a team ISO of .250 over the last week with 11 dingers. They just keep getting it done. I am shocked that they’ve hit LHPs so well because of all the LHBs they have on the roster. Urias is making his return from a lengthy IL stint so we have to assume he’s going to throw about 70-75 pitches. We do have some potential weather moving in as well, which could cut his return short.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .233 against LHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Los Angeles Angels
MLB Dinger of the Day – Francisco Lindor, Mets
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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