Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/14:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kenta Maeda
- Charlie Morton
- Tyler Glasnow
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Minnesota Twins (-190) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Athletics – Paul Blackburn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. The A’s are calling up Soderstrom and Gelof, both young prospects with a lot of power upside. The Twins offense was non-existent much of the first half and they can rack up Ks. I think both SPs should be fairly popular tonight. I wouldn’t be shocked if Buxton started out the second half with a bang after getting to rest over the break. OAK’s lineup should be ripe for some Ks.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown, Tyler Soderstrom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ St Louis Cardinals (-190)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Trevor Williams
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am very intrigued by this STL squad. Either guys get shipped out in trades or they rally together and wake up. There’s too much talent on the roster to suck ass for an entire season, right? Mikolas might draw some ownership but I just don’t want to rely on him. He did put up a solid performance against WSH earlier but they are a team that just doesn’t strike out at this point.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Abrams, Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Baltimore Orioles (-140)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I love the spot for Kremer with his K upside but MIA did close the 1st half swinging it really well. Alcantara had a horrendous first half and looked nothing like a Cy Young winner. It’s a chance for him to start fresh this half and regain his form but the issue is that the Orioles are such a dangerous offense. I really am torn on how to attack this one outside of using Kremer in my pitcher pool.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers (-115) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 10. Burnes has dominated the Reds throughout his career so it’s tough seeing a 10 total in this game. This is a new Reds squad but it’s still one that has 33 Ks and just 13 hits in 111 PAs against Burnes. Ashcraft looked like he was going to be a steady stud and then he got dismantled much of the first half. He finished the first half with 2 strong starts but I think MIL might do some damage in this spot.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Willy Adames, William Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Elly De La Cruz
4-star plays: Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-292) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Royals – Alec Marsh
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This game has a ton of weather concerns, which is really frustrating because Glasnow has dominated this roster while the Rays offense is in the best spot on the slate of games. Diaz HR’d in the All-Star game and finished the 1st half rolling at the plate. Witt finished up the first half strongly and he is a modest 1 for 2 against Glasnow. If this one plays through, I’m all about the Rays tonight.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners (-190)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. We could see a great SP match-up in this one but I do have some concerns about E-Rod. He returned from a lengthy IL trip and looked rough in his first start back and now comes in off of a lengthy break. Castillo is in a great spot and will be really popular tonight. Teoscar can crush LHPs and he’s had a TON of success against E-Rod, so he’s my most likely Dinger call tonight.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs.
New York Yankees (-205) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Yankees – Carlos Rodon
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. The Yankees have hit LHPs really well, despite struggling as a team so far in 2023. Imagine how potent the lineup would be tonight if Judge was back and if LeMahieu could remember how to hit! Rodon didn’t impress me much in his debut and he’s probably limited to around 80-85 pitches tonight. I normally like to sneak in some SPs against COL but I don’t think that happens tonight.
NYY 5-star plays: Harrison Bader, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .146 against LHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Atlanta Braves (-278)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. With Robert hurting his calf in the Derby, I am not sure we see him in the lineup. If we don’t see him, Morton because extremely attractive (he’s attractive either way, tbh). Kopech returning from the IL could have asked for a better spot as the Braves are just so damn dangerous, especially at home. Most of the HRs allowed by Kopech have been hit by RHBs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 against RHPs.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Toronto Blue Jays (-178)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Berrios has been a stud at home but I can’t bring myself to attack D’Backs with less than elite level pitching. He could be dominant but I like this ARI squad for DFS upside. I want to believe that the HR Derby will spark a big second half for Vlad Jr because the Blue Jays need him to be their best player. Springer closed the first half strong and I think the break will help Bichette get rolling again.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Alek Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox (-135) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. A chunk of the Red Sox lineup went into the all-star break on a roll so I hope we get to see them continue that. Duran has been an absolute beast for BOS and has really turned his trajectory around. Devers hasn’t been great but he’s always dangerous with the wind slightly blowing out in Wrigley. I am interested in Bello against a weaker Cubs lineup but Bellinger was swinging it well leading up to the break.
BOS 5-star plays: Jarren Duran
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)
Pitchers:
Astros – JP France
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I keep trying to convince myself that France is a great play but I just don’t know if I can get there. The numbers say that I should be playing him tonight but I just think that the Angels have a few bats that can wake up in this spot. Ohtani is always in play as an SP but tonight you can’t use him as an SP on FD, only as a hitter. He finished the first half on a tear, which isn’t surprising since he was dominant in June.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani (hitter on FD)
4-star plays: Mickey Moniak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs.
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San Francisco Giants (-125) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Giants – Ross Stripling
Pirates – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Normally I love taking LHPs against SF as they are similar to the Brewers in that regard. I just don’t know if I can trust Hill against them at this point. The Pirates limped into the break with some massive struggles and when you add in that SF will treat this game more like a bullpen game, I am finding it tough to want to be on any of the PIT bats outside of the power from Suwinski. I always use Slater against LHPs but the PH risk is real.
SF 5-star plays: Patrick Bailey
4-star plays: Austin Slater, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against LHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers (-145)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Rangers – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am super high on the Rangers int he second half (my best ball teams agree) so I have to be on them again, right? They were pretty cold to close out the first half but the lineup has a ton of upside to it. I never like the Guardians because they really lack power overall. Gray didn’t look great his last handful of starts as his K numbers disappeared and when you add in that CLE doesn’t K much, you get a fade spot for me.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Josh Jung, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres (-115) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Phillies – Cristopher Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I really think we see some runs in this game (obviously Eric, the total’s 9.5). I just feel like people over value this version of Yu Darvish, especially on the road. San Diego’s offense needs to come out in the second half and be explosive so they can make a run at getting back into things. I wanted to pick an HR or two from this game but since it’s not on the main slate, I skipped it for my Dinger pick/s.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, He-Seong Kim
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-125) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Mets – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Urias looked great in his last start but I kind of want to play the wait and see game with him, to see if he’s fully back to the Cy Young type arm that he was coming into this season. Verlander hasn’t been amazing and now he faces one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball, so it’s an easy fade for me. Martinez is 5 for 10 against Verlander while Mookie has struggled but he’s been so damn good this season.
LAD 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Tampa Bay Rays
- New York Yankees
- St Louis Cardinals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Teoscar Hernandez, Mariners
Apr 12, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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