Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a couple of early games followed by a 13-game main slate for this first Friday of June, so if the small slates from yesterday didn’t tickle your fancy, perhaps today will suit you better. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
The early games look a little rough for the starters, so you’ll have to choose wisely. Cabrera gets my vote, though Burnes certainly has some upside in him should he be on his game As for the main slate, there are plenty of options to look at, from studs like Ohtani and Valdez to some like Verlander who are struggling to find their way but do offer plenty of upside if things go well for them. For the bottom end, a whopping seven pitchers have carnage ratings of 6.0 or worse, so there are bound to be a few landmines that you’ll want to avoid. Overall, this looks to be a slate where just paying up for your arms is the way to go, but we’ll see if one of the budget options pulls through. Either way, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Winner winner, $3k dinner!
Early games
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
We’ll kick things off with the Brewers and Reds, with Burnes and Williamson on the mound. We start the day with a bang, as this 10.0 total is the highest on the board. Both offenses will be in play, but so will Burnes, as he’s a threat to flirt with double-digit strikeouts.
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Contreras, Anderson
GPP note – Good spot against Williamson for both hands, though righties do have the power advantage.
Reds 4 star plays – India/Friedl
Reds 3.5 star plays – Steer
GPP note – Righties have been hitting Burnes for some power, so don’t be afraid to try your luck there.
Oakland Athletics at Miami Marlins
Our second and final early game will be between the Athletics and Marlins, with Harris and Cabrera as the starters. The home team gets most of the love from Vegas here, and Cabrera gets some love from me and probably plenty of others too, as it’s fun to pick on the Oakland offense.
Athletics 4 star plays – Brown
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Ruiz
GPP note – Cabrera has allowed some decent contact and power to righties, so if you decide to go with these bats, consider one of them.
Marlins 4.5 star plays – Soler
Marlins 4 star plays – De La Cruz, Gurriel/Fortes
GPP note – Harris had a decent outing against the Astros but Vegas still likes these guys to put up some runs. Lefties had the xwOBA against him, so hand matchup shouldn’t matter too much here.
Main slate
St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Cardinals and Pirates. We’ll see Flaherty and Contreras get the start here with a 9.0 total. This game looks to be very boom or bust, as I could see it going either way depending on how awake or sleepy the bats are here. If they’re all up for the task, watch out, as this one could get out of hand quickly.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Gorman/Arenado, Nootbaar
GPP note – Good spot for these bats to have a big game, as Contreras offers a low strikeout with plenty of xwOBA allowed to both sides of the plate.
Pirates 4 star plays – Suwinski, McCutchen/Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Joe/Bae
GPP note – Flaherty’s wild season continues, as his glass floor & ceiling seem to have an equal chance of breaking in every start. It’s not a bad idea to hedge here.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Next up we have the Phillies and Nationals, with Wheeler and Gray on the mound. Vegas gives this one an 8.5 total with most of it going to the visitors. All things considered, that seems quite reasonable, as they certainly have the better matchup on all fronts.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper/Schwarber
Phillies 4 star plays – Turner/Stott
GPP note – Gray isn’t allowing a ton of power, but his strikeout rate has dropped and he’s allowing decent xwOBA to lefties, so stacks are in play here as usual.
Nationals 4 star plays – Thomas/Candelario/Garcia
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Abrams
GPP note – It’s not a great spot against Wheeler but he is allowing moderate xwOBA to lefties.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets
The Blue Jays and Mets are up next, with Bassitt and Verlander to get the start. This is our first game with some potential weather concerns, so be sure to keep an eye on the skies as we do have two mid-ranged pitchers with plenty of upside. However, they’ll never reach said ceiling if a second-inning thunderboomer ruins the fun.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Bichette
GPP note – Verlander continues to look for steady ground in 2023, so hedging here isn’t a bad idea since both sides offer plenty of upside. Currently, he’s allowing good power to both sides of the plate.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor, Aloso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – Bassitt is allowing good contact and power to lefties, so traditional split bats and a power righty or two are in play, as they usually are.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Speaking of weather concerns, our next matchup looks even worse, so you’ll need to keep an eye on this one as well. Glasnow and Whitlock will get the start here, as the Rays take on the Red Sox with a healthy 9.5 total. That’s too juicy to ignore, so be sure to do your due diligence!
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Lowe, Diaz
GPP note – Like Flaherty, Whitlock’s starts can be quite random, so hedging here isn’t a terrible idea if they play.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida
GPP note – Glasnow didn’t look too shabby in his return, and if he’s able to limit the hits, he could spell bad news for these bats.
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
We’ll head to the land of a Texas dome where the weather is of no concern, as the Mariners will face the Rangers. Castillo and Gray will get the start here, and with them, an 8.5 total. While these two do have a history of racking up some runs against one another, I feel like this will be one of the quieter games, so I think we’ll see the under by a couple of runs.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Raleigh/Crawford
GPP note – Gray is allowing moderate xwOBA and power to righties, so taking a couple of them here wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager/Semien
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe
GPP note – Castillo is a tough target, but he does allow some power to both sides, so small contrarian stacks aren’t out of the question.
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
Our second Texas-based game will be between the Angels and Astros. We’ll get a couple of studs for this one, as Ohtani and Valdez will face off with a 7.5 total. This one could easily go the under as well, as neither pitcher is a stranger to shutting down an offense. You can always go contrarian, as the matchup and price tag for many of these bats should keep their ownership much lower than usual.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Trout
Angels 3 star plays – Drury/Renfroe
GPP note – Not a great spot, but Valdez does allow some power to lefties on occasion.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Alvarez, Tucker
Astros 3 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
GPP note – Same as above. If you want to hedge with some pricey pitchers, this is the game for you.
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
We’ll head to another potentially rainy game next, as the Guardians and Twins are set to face off with Civale and Ober as the starters. Fortunately, as of early this morning it looks like the rain may be calm by the time this one kicks off, but you never know what mother nature may do.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez/Naylor
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Kwan/Bell
GPP note – Ober allows some power to lefties but not much to righties, so going with the flow is perhaps the best way to go with this squad.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Polanco
Twins 3.5 star plays – Gallo
GPP note – There’s not much to go off of with Civale since we haven’t seen him since early April, but Vegas likes these bats to score some runs, so have some exposure here.
Colorado Rockies at Kansas City Royals
Next up we’ll have Anderson and the Rockies taking on Lyles and my Royals. A 9.0 total, I could see this one going over without a lot of resistance, which would be great for all of the inexpensive bats in these two lineups.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Profar/McMahon
GPP note – Lyles is never a bad target, as he allows plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate along with a low strikeout rate. The implied total here isn’t huge, so hopefully that will keep their ownership down some.
Royals 4 star plays – Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Pasquantino/Witt
GPP note – This spot isn’t as good as what Anderson’s salary might indicate, but the usual bats are at least worth looking at.
The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB Research Station includes today’s 📊 DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as a part of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Olson and the Tigers will take on Clevinger and the White Sox next. For the most part this one looks pretty cut and dry, though Clevinger is awfully inexpensive to be facing this Detroit offense. Perhaps he will be the shining budget arm that this slate needs?
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez/McKinstry
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Short
GPP note – Clevinger is allowing solid contact and power to both sides, so there could be a few useful budget bats here.
White Sox 4.5 star plays – Robert/Anderson
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi/Jimenez/Sheets
GPP note – There are plenty of bats here hitting righties for a lot of pop, and most of them are righties.
Late games
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
We’ll head out west for our late games now, starting with the Braves and Diamondbacks. Morton and Kelly will get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. Vegas has this one split fairly evenly, with just a slight nod to the visitors. That seems fair, though I don’t know how I feel about this one seeing the over.
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna/Olson
Braves 3.5 star plays – Murphy/Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – These guys are getting plenty of love from Vegas, but Kelly hasn’t exactly been a soft target. If they look to be extra chalky, you may consider pivoting and hope that they fall short.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Carroll/Marte
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Gurriel/Walker
GPP note – Similar idea here as well, though Morton hasn’t been quite as stingy. He is allowing some decent power to righties.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Next up we have Taillon and the Cubs taking on Wacha and the Padres. We get an 8.5 total for this one, and Vegas likes the home team, as one would expect. I don’t think it’ll be as close as what they’re calling for, unless Wacha just forgets how to pitch tonight.
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki/Swanson/Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Morel
GPP note – Wacha has been pretty tough, so small or medium-sized stacks may be the way to go here.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto/Tatis
Padres 4 star plays – Bogaerts/Cronenworth
GPP note – Taillon is allowing a ton of xwOBA to both sides, though lefties do have the power advantage.
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers
We have a couple more studs getting the start for our next game, as Severino and the Yankees will take on Kershaw and the Dodgers. Even with them, there’s enough offensive firepower to push this game up to an 8.5 total, though I could see this one being a bit of a boom or bust scenario too. If you can’t decide which side you like better, consider hedging!
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Stanton/Rizzo
GPP note – Not the best matchup against Kershaw and many of these bats are a bit cold against lefties right now, so be a little careful with large contrarian stacks.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy/Martinez
GPP note – Severino can pin down an offense when he’s on his game, though he doesn’t look to be quite in that form yet. He’s allowing more power to righties than to lefties, so taking some swings here would be in order.
Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Orioles and Giants, with Kremer and Webb to get the start. The Giants are favored here, and Webb will probably be the single greatest factor in how this one unfolds. I could see it going either way, so hedging here wouldn’t be a bad idea, either.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mountcastle/Frazier
GPP note – Tough matchup against a stingy pitcher, though many of these bats are hitting righties for power. You can run some contrarian stacks or even hedge here.
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski/Haniger
Giants 3.5 star plays – Davis/Sabol
GPP note – Overall a solid spot for these bats, with the contact & power advantage going to the lefties.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.