Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Thursday, though we get a few more games than we usually do for this time of the week. We’ll have seven early games followed by a five-game main slate, so we’ll get plenty of action as we head towards the weekend. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have plenty of options today, though at first glance it seems that most are sort of “middle of the road” selections. Only three pitchers on the day have KSCOREs north of 500, but only four have SIERAs around 5.0 or higher. In other words, most aren’t too bad, but aren’t too special either. We’ll want to find a good strategy for picking our pitchers today, as we could see many of them post up mediocre marks while also not allowing as much as we would like to their opposing offenses. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early games
San Diego Padres at Puttsburgh Pirates
We’ll kick things off with the Padres and Pirates, with Musgrove and Ortiz to get the start. We get a modest 8.5 total with most of it going to the home team, making Musgrove one of the more favorable pitchers on the day (for our purposes, at least).
Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts
GPP note – Ortiz comes in with a low strikeout rate and is allowing good xwOBA to both sides, so don’t be afraid of the cheaper bats down low.
Pirates 4 star plays – Suwinski, McCutchen
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Santana
GPP note – Tough spot against Musgrove, though there are at least a few bats here hitting righties for power.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Next up we have the Tigers and Rangers, with Olson and Gray on the mound. It’s too early for Vegas’ input on this one, though I suspect we’ll get an expected result once we get it.
Tigers 4 star plays – Carpenter, Baez
Tigers 3.5 star plays – McKinstry
GPP note – Gray is allowing modest power to lefties and decent xwOBA to righties, so you can take a few swings at him from both sides.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager, Semien
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe/Garcia, Heim
GPP note – Olson has some reverse splits working against him, as he is allowing much more power to righties than to lefties.
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Bieber and the Guardians will take on Greinke and my Royals next, and with them we have a 9.0 total. Things look pretty standard here as well, and even though this isn’t exactly Coors, Greinke hasn’t been very confident in himself, so I could see Cleveland having a bigger day than what Vegas is suggesting.
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Bell/Naylor/Gimenez
GPP note – You can count on at least one home run coming from here, and while it’ll probably come from a lefty, Greinke is allowing decent power to righties, too.
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Witt
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Bieber, but he is allowing decent contact and power to lefties on occasion.
New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics
We’ll head out west for our late early games (that sounds a little odd), starting with the Yankees and Athletics. Schmidt and Harris will get the start here, though once again, it’s too early for any insight from Vegas. I don’t see them favoring Oakland, though they could be a source of a lot of cheap bats with moderate upside.
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo, Torres
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Stanton, Donaldson, Volpe
GPP note – Look at some lefties here, as Harris is allowing more solid contact to them than to righties recently.
Athletics 4 star plays – Brown
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Rooker
GPP note – Schmidt comes in with a low strikeout rate and is allowing some power to righties, so don’t be afraid to test the waters here.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks
Chirinos and the Rays will take on Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks next. We get a healthy 10.0 total to start with, and Vegas has this one split mostly down the middle, but with just a slight nod to the visitors. With these two starting, I could see it getting out of hand for either team – or perhaps both.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena, Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz, Siri
GPP note – Pfaadt doesn’t put up a lot of resistance, and whoever follows him probably won’t either, so you can go here as you normally would. Don’t neglect the less expensive bats.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Walker/Gurriel/Perdomo, Thomas
GPP note – Chirinos is allowing good contact and power to both sides and carries a low strikeout rate, so you can go after him from either side here. This could be a good game stacking scenario.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Next up we will see Lynn and the White Sox take on Sandoval and the Angels. A 9.5 total, I could see this one going the under, but with a handful of useful pieces for us. Lynn could be one such piece, but don’t expect another 16-strikeout performance from him.
White Sox 4.5 star plays – Robert/Anderson
White Sox 4 star plays – Vaughn, Grandal
GPP note – Sandoval has been strict to lefties while allowing decent numbers to righties, so traditional splits are the way to go here.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Ohtani, Trout
Angels 3.5 star plays – Moustakas, Drury
GPP note – Lynn carries some good upside for the price along with some good power being allowed to lefties, so this isn’t a bad hedge spot.
Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox
We’ll round out the early games with the Marlins and Red Sox, with Luzardo and Bello on the mound. Another 9.5 total, my gut tells me this is another good candidate to see the under, as both pitchers can hold their own and throw a solid game.
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm/Arraez
Marlins 3.5 star plays – De La Cruz/Soler
GPP note – Bello allows some power to lefties but isn’t a pushover by any means, so be strategic with your bats rather than blindly stacking against him.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Turner, Devers/Yoshida
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Refsnyder/Verdugo
GPP note – Luzardo allows some contact and power to righties but is stingy to lefties and carries plenty of strikeout upside, so you’ll need to be strategic against him, too.
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Main slate
San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ll start the main slate off with the Giants and Blue Jays, with Walker and Bassitt on the mound. This is another game that I don’t have any Vegas insight for this early in the morning (are they sleeping in today or what?), but once again, I don’t think that they’ll be siding with the visitors here.
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson
Giants 3.5 star plays – Davis/Estrada
GPP note – Lefties have been getting some solid power out of Bassitt, so traditional splits are bound to work best here.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette/Belt/Chapman, Biggio
GPP note – Plenty of these bats are hitting righties for power, so you can go with either hand here.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
Next up we have the Brewers and Mets, with Houser and Scherzer on the hill. We get an 8.5 total for this one, with most of it going to the home team. That’s probably fair, but don’t be afraid to hedge some with Scherzer, because you never know when his hard throwing will result in a home run or two against him.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3 star plays – Tellez/Adames
GPP note – Same as usual here – Scherzer allows some random power to both sides but carries huge strikeout potential, so he’s always an option to hedge with.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil/Vogelbach
GPP note – Houser carries one of the lowest strikeout rates on the day and is allowing solid contact and power to lefties.
Houston Astros at St Louis Cardinals
France and the Astros will take on Wainwright and the Cardinals next, and we get a 9.5 total for this one. Vegas has this one split down the middle, but I think I like Houston. If Wainwright doesn’t step up his game some, this one could easily see the over.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Bregman/Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Tucker/Maldonado
GPP note – Same idea as Houser, but Wainwright is also allowing good xwOBA to righties to go with the big power to lefties.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado, Nootbaar/Gorman
GPP note – France has some reverse splits working against him, as he’s allowing more power to righties than he is to lefties.
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Next up we’ll get Walker and the Phillies taking on Hendricks and the Cubs. Another 9.5 total, I don’t know that I am overly confident on this one going over, but we’ll see how that goes. Hendricks is really good at creating big duds for our fantasy goodness, so tread lightly.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper/Schwarber
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Castellanos/Realmuto/Turner
GPP note – Hendricks doesn’t rack up the strikeouts but he’s not really giving up much either, so it’s hard to get overly excited here.
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki, Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays -Tauchman
GPP note – Decent Vegas support here, though Walker is a tougher opponent than this total would hint at. I don’t mind going under here.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
We’ll wrap things up with our visit out to Coors field, as Sheehan and the Dodgers will take on Anderson and the Rockies. We get a 12.0 total to start with, with 7+ of that going to the visitors. There may or may not be some weather concerns we will have to deal with here, so be sure to keep an eye on the skies so you can adjust your lineups accordingly, should mother nature get more out hand and ruin the chalk game.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Every other bat in the lineup.
GPP note – This seems pretty self-explanatory.
Rockies 4.5 star plays – McMahon
Rockies 4 star plays – Profar, Cron/Diaz
GPP note – It’s not a terrible idea to hedge with Sheehan here, as some goofy things can happen at Coors and these bats can get into strikeout trouble.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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