Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Friday, though we don’t get the usual pre-weekend treatment. This time around, we will have four early games followed by a modest 10-game main slate. If you were hoping for a monster 14+ gamer, you’ll have to wait for another day. Still, there’s plenty to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
There are plenty of ways to go today, though overall there seems to be more pitchers in average or bad spots as there are in good. We do at least have some in good enough spots to rely on for cash games, such as Musgrove, Bassitt, or Webb. For tournaments, however, we may have to dig in a bit more to be sure we’re selecting those with some good upside as opposed to all of those who may get dinged around a bit. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early games
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll kick things off with my Royals and the Rays, as Greinke and Eflin will face off in the battle of the Zack(h)s. Like yesterday, we get an uninspiring 7.5 total, with most of it going to the home team. Can KC grab the upset twice in a row?
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Witt
GPP note – Tough spot for these bats, though yesterday was supposed to be, too. Throw some contrarian stacks against Eflin if you think the momentum can carry into today.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena/Franci
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Raley
GPP note – Greinke is allowing a decent chunk of homers in his recent starts, so you can attack him as you normally would. Lefties have the power advantage against him.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Next up we have the Twins and Tigers, with Maeda and Wentz on the mound. There are some early weather concerns, but the game should play out as planned. However, I would still keep an eye on the skies just in case the weather station is wrong (that never happens!).
Twins 5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Solano, Taylor
GPP note – Good spot for these bats to do some damage, as Wentz is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate.
Tigers 4 star plays – McKinstry
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baez
GPP note – Maeda had plenty of struggles earlier this season, so be sure to attack him some in case that continues (or you could hedge and hope that he drops a gem).
Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
We head to some more weather concerns for our next game, which will be between the Braves and Reds. Smith-Shawver and Weaver will get the start here, along with a juicy 11.0 total. Hopefully the rain won’t keep these fireworks down, as there is bound to be plenty of them if we see this one play as scheduled.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Albies, Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – Weaver is allowing well-above average power to both sides of the plate, making this a great spot to go to (it’s hard to argue against a 6+ run implied total).
Reds 4.5 star plays – India/Votto
Reds 4 star plays – McLain/Friedl/De La Cruz
GPP note – AJ is allowing big power to righties, so be sure to try your luck with some RvR bats.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
We’ll wrap up the early games with the Pirates and Marlins, with Ortiz and Luzardo on the mound. We move down to an 8.0 total, though I suspect we’ll see that move up a notch or so throughout the day. I don’t think it’ll be a banger like the previous game, but I could see some important pieces coming from this one.
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes/McCutchen
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Santana/Joe/Suwinski
GPP note – Luzardo brings plenty of strikeout upside, but he is also allowing some good contact and power to righties. Contrarian stacks or hedging is an option here.
Marlins 5 star plays – Arraez/Soler
Marlins 4 star plays – De La Cruz
GPP note – Good spot for these bats, as Ortiz is allowing good contact and power to both sides, though more of it has been going to lefties.
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Main slate
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Mariners and Orioles. Gilbert and Gibson will get the start here, along with an 8.5 total. Unfortunately, our weather concerns have followed us once again, as quite a few of the next games have some serious storms brewing. Be sure to keep an eye on things on all of these east-coast games!
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez/Hernandez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Kelenic
GPP note – Gibson isn’t the best of targets to attack, though he is allowing decent xwOBA to righties, so some small stacks could be in play here.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Henderson
GPP note – Sort of the same idea as Gibson, though Gilbert is allowing some xwOBA and ISO to both sides of the plate.
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Next up we have the Rangers and Yankees, with Dunning and Schmidt on the hill. We have no insight from Vegas just yet, but we do have some from the weather station, and things aren’t looking great. Hopefully they play, but don’t be surprised to see a delay or a possible postponement.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager, Semien
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Heim/Taveras
GPP note – Schmidt is allowing some power to righties and has the occasional game where he gives up a couple homers, so some medium-sized stacks could be good here.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Torres/Stanton
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo, Donaldson
GPP note – Dunning is allowing nearly .400 xwOBA to both sides of the plate and a good chunk of power to righties, so stacks of any size with any hand are in play here.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
The Mets and Phillies are next, with Senga and Walker on the mound. As you may have guessed, we have more weather concerns here, so hopefully that won’t keep this game from playing, seeing as we do have a healthy 9.5 total. We need some pivots from Coors, so hopefully this one comes through.
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 3.5 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – Walker is allowing decent xwOBA to lefties, but he’s not really giving up much power, so I would be careful blindly stacking here.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper/Schwarber
Phillies 4 star plays – Turner/Stott
GPP note – Sort of the same as above, though Senga is allowing more power to righties than Walker is.
Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
We escape the weather issues (for now) with our next game, this one between the Athletics and Blue Jays. Kaprielian and Bassitt will get the start here, and with them, a 9.0 total. Most of that is being given to the home team, which shouldn’t be much of a surprise, and I suspect that they’ll be a popular option considering all of the weather issues we see elsewhere.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Brown
GPP note – Bassitt has been very tough on righties but has been allowing some decent contact and power to lefties, so a few contrarian bats could be useful here.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette/Merrifield/Varsho
GPP note – Plenty of Vegas love here which makes these guys a chalky option to pivot from Coors, though Kaprielian could have another decent outing where he limits the opposing offense.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians
The rain looks to be back with our next game, this one between the Brewers and Guardians. Miley and Bieber will get the start here, and we get another 8.0 total. It is a Miley game though, so if this one plays as planned, be sure you’re attacking him, as the Guardians will have a chance to create some fireworks of their own.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Tellez, Contreras
GPP note – While Bieber isn’t the best target you could ask for, he’s been having some issues with his strikeouts, so taking a few contrarian stacks here couldn’t hurt.
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Naylor/Gimenez/Rosario
GPP note – Miley is always a fun target to go after, as he is good for the occasional implosion in spectacular fashion.
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Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox
Bello and the Red Sox will take on Giolito and the White Sox next, as they will battle fiercely over who has the better fashion sense. All kidding aside, we get an 8.5 total that is mostly split down the middle, which I suppose is fair considering we have two solid pitchers at the helm, even if the Boston offense is stronger on paper.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida, Verdugo/Turner
GPP note – Giolito can rack up some strikeouts but he’s also allowing decent contact and power to both sides, so this wouldn’t be a bad spot to do some higher-salary hedging.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Anderson
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi, Vaughn
GPP note – Bello is a threat to lock down this offense, so be careful stacking here too heavily.
Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies
We’ll head to our Coors game next, this one between the Angels and Rockies. Sandoval and and Freeland will get the start here, and we get an 11.5 total as a starting point. I’m sure that will go up, as there’s a decent chance that just Trout and Ohtani will send their team to the over. They’ll need to, to pay off those big salaries!
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Ward/Drury/Wallach
GPP note – Bombs away!
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Profar, McMahon
Rockies 4 star plays – Diaz/Grichuk
GPP note – There is some strikeout potential here, so don’t be afraid to hedge some.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
We’ll head out west for our last three games, starting with the Nationals and Padres. Corbin and Musgrove will get the start here, along with another, well, lame, 8.0 total. However, like Cleveland game, these guys are getting a pitcher who can really give up some runs, and this total feels a little low, all things considered.
Nationals 4 star plays – Thomas
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Candelario
GPP note – Tough spot against Musgrove, so be careful here.
Padres 5 star plays – Tatis/Machado, Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Bogaerts/Sanchez
GPP note – Great spot for these bats, as Corbin has been a punching bag to both sides of the plate for most of the season.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers
Next up we have the Astros and Dodgers, with France and Sheehan to get the start. An 8.5 total, I can’t help but feel like Vegas really likes Sheehan, considering that the Astros have a sub-4.0 total here. Sure, they don’t have Alvarez, but something seems off here.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
Astros 3.5 star plays – Tucker
GPP note – There’s not a lot to go off of here, though considering Vegas isn’t giving these guys a huge total, it may be best to stick to medium-sized stacks.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez/Muncy
GPP note – This is a fine spot to go to, but France is allowing much more to righties than he is to lefties, so consider bats from that side to help with ownership.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
We’ll wrap up the day with the Diamondbacks and Giants, with Davies and Webb on the mound. We knew we would end the day with either some weather concerns or an 8.0 total, and it looks like the dice rolled on “8.0 total” this time. The home team gets the nod here, and that seems pretty fair considering they have the upper hand on both fronts. I wouldn’t mind rolling out some contrarian stacks though, especially on a game where Coors may see more ownership than usual if we get a third of the games postponed.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Marte/Walker/Gurriel/Perdomo
GPP note – Not a very good spot against Webb, though he is allowing modest xwOBA to righties and these bats are hitting right-handed pitchers fairly well recently.
Giants 4.5 star plays – Pederson/Wade, Estrada
Giants 4 star plays – Davis
GPP note – Davies is allowing good wOBA to both sides of the plate, so you can go after him from either side here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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