Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s our short-slate Thursday, as we get a pair of small slates to work with. One offers four games while the other offers three, but if you would rather try something larger, you could always try an all-day slate. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a decent variety of options today, ranging from studs with plenty of upside (like Scherzer and Valdez) to some cheaper alternatives like Musgrove who aren’t in too bad of a spot and may be worth taking a few extra shots with. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ll kick things off with the Brewers and Blue Jays, with Peralta and Gausman on the hill. Vegas is giving these two an 8.5 total, with the majority of that going to the home team. This one looks pretty straight forward, so it’s hard to argue against Vegas’ position.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Tellez, Miller
GPP note – Not a great spot against Gausman, but a few of these bats are hitting righties for power, so some small contrarian stacks aren’t a terrible play.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Belt, Chapman/Marrifield
GPP note – Peralta allows power to both sides but quite a bit more to righties, which could make these bats extra dangerous.
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
Next up we have the Padres and Marlins, with Musgrove and Luzardo as the starters. We move down to a 7.5 total for this one, with neither team breaking the 4.0 mark. Both pitchers make for interesting options here, so be sure to give them a look along with any bats you may take.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Tatis/Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Bogaerts
GPP note – Luzardo allows good contact and power to righties, so some stacks could be good here despite the moderate total.
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez/Soler
Marlins 3.5 star plays – De La Cruz
GPP note – Musgrove is allowing about equal power to both sides, so hand selection shouldn’t matter here too much. Medium-sized stacks seem attractive.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
The Phillies and Mets are up next, with Walker and Scherzer on the mound. We move back up to an 8.5 total, with New York being the favorite by a decent margin. That may all just depend on which Scherzer shows up, as one side or the other of this one is sure to offer a lot of fantasy goodness.
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Turner
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber/Castellanos
GPP note – It’s Scherzer, so there’s always a good chance that these bats will drown in strikeouts. You can always send a few bats against him for the power upside, thogh.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – With his low strikeout rate and power allowed to lefties, Walker is a fine target to attack. Don’t neglect the righties, as he’s allowing decent wOBA to them, too.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
We’ll round out the early games with the Rockies and Diamondbacks, with Anderson and Davies getting the nod. We get the highest total on the day here at a 10.0, which means we’ll have some chalky bats. Consider paying down for some of them to help with ownership.
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Bryant, McMahon
Rockies 4 star plays – Profar/Grichuk
GPP note – Davies hasn’t shown a lot when we have seen him this year, so taking some big swings against him wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll/Marte
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Gurriel
GPP note – Anderson has been a bit stingy with power, so while this will be a popular spot to go to, you could always look elsewhere and hope these bats fall a bit short.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Main slate
Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox
The Reds and Red Sox will be first up for the main slate, with Greene and Sale as the starters. The 9.5 total we get here is the highest of this slate, though the bats aren’t the only interesting option here. Both starters have plenty of upside in them, so if you like hedging, this is the game for you.
Reds 4 star plays – India
Reds 3.5 star plays – Steer
GPP note – Sale can rack up the strikeouts in a hurry, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge some here since he does have a bad game here and there – especially with his price where it is.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers, Yoshida
Red Sox 4 star plays – Turner
GPP note – Same idea as above but with more ownership. It’s never a bad idea to hedge with Greene, and righties have the power advantage against him.
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
The Guardians and Twins will be up next, with Bibee and Lopez to get the start. We get a modest 8.0 total for this one, and while that’s certainly not as exciting as the previous two games, there are still some high-upside options here worth considering.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez/Naylor
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Bell
GPP note – This total isn’t very attractive but Lopez allows good contact and power to both sides, so some medium-sized stacks here could be useful.
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton, Correa/Polanco
Twins 3.5 star plays – Gallo
GPP note – Bibee is a bit up-or-down with his low floor and high ceiling, so if you aren’t hedging in the previous game, consider doing it here.
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
We’ll wrap up the day with the Angels and Astros, with Detmers and Valdez at the helm. We’ll get an 8.5 total for this one, with Houston being the heavy favorite. They represent what will likely be the chalk of the slate, and while they are certainly in a pretty good spot, you’ll want to put on your thinking cap to find ways to combat the increased ownership.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 3.5 star plays – Drury
GPP note – Another hedge prospect on the day, Valdez has all sorts of upside in him, but some of these bats do as well. If you take this route, stick to the studs and perhaps a lefty or two since Valdez allows more power to them.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman/Altuve
GPP note – Detmers allows good xwOBA to both sides and a lot of power to lefties, so you can go after him however you see fit.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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