Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/14:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Clayton Kershaw
- Framber Valdez
- Michael Wacha
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins (-165)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Colin Rea
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We saw both SPs in this game rack up Ks last night and we could see some Ks again today. The issue is that Rea really isn’t all that good. He’s coming off of his best start of the year but the Twins just walked it off against Devin Williams last night so there’s some confidence on that side. Ober has plenty of upside against a struggling MIL offense right now.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-292) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
A’s – Luis Medina
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Ok, the A’s are hot but they still suck. The Rays pen blew it last night in a game that saw 3 runs scored. Glasnow is in such an elite spot that I am not afraid to go to him. He’s going to have a 10 K game at some point and he’s the kind of arm I want to be on when it happens. The Rays offense has hit a bit of a struggle of late and they aren’t destroying RHPs like they were to begin the season. Medina has been pretty strong in the reverse splits category this season.
TB 5-star plays: Harold Ramirez
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against RHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Noda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Seattle Mariners (-190)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Eury Perez
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I really love this SP match-up but the Mariners are starting to heat up a bit and that worries me for Perez. I have a soft spot for Perez after he led me to that $50K win recently. Castillo is in an elite spot against a weak swinging Marlins lineup. Mike Ford has been a revelation for the Mariners all of a sudden as he keeps dropping bombs. I don’t expect Perez to get lit up by any means.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Mike Ford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-115) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Blue Jays have hit Bradish really well in previous match-ups and they were embarrassed a bit last night. I really think they come out hot in this spot. Berrios has been strong but the Orioles cold bats woke up last night while Gunnar stayed scorching hot as a leadoff man. I definitely think this game plays to the over of 9 runs with a chance at 4+ HRs in it.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, George Springer
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Gunnar Henderson
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers (-145)
Pitchers:
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rangers – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This is another game that I could see exploding a bit more than you might think. I know both SPs can be more than serviceable but both are prone to explosive starts and by explosive, I mean they get blown up. Ohtani is hot at the plate while the Rangers have guys that produce against both RHP and LHPs. Renfroe has traditionally mashed LHPs so he’s a sneaky Dinger play.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-267) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 1
Pitchers:
Braves – Spencer Strider
Tigers – Reese Olson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Let’s be honest, we have no desire to target anything associated with Detroit here. Carpenter is swinging a really hot bat since his IL return but strikeouts should be the key thing today. Olson has looked really good in his first 10 MLB innings but this is the Braves offense we are talking about here. We should expect some regression to hit soon for Olson.
ATL 5-star plays: Michael Harris
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Orlando Arcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-267) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Pitchers:
Braves – Dylan Dodd
Tigers – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
We are still waiting on the Vegas information. The SPs were just announced in the last 10 minutes or so. The Braves are in a great spot during both games while the Tigers best shot at scoring runs comes in Game 2. I don’t really want to play any Tigers in either game if I am being honest. It’s all about the Braves for me. We just have to pay attention to see who might be sitting in game 1 or 2 as I would expect the lineup to have 3 or 4 guys different.
ATL 5-star plays: Michael Harris
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Orlando Arcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Spencer Torkelson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Boston Red Sox (-240)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Red Sox – Garrett Whitlock
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. Whitlock has always flashed elite upside but injuries have derailed some of that promise. He gets such a great match-up tonight that I have to be very interested, the total just scares me. The Red Sox aren’t that great against LHPs as they prefer to be very LH heavy in their main lineup. Justin Turner is swinging it well and has hit Gomber extremely well in the past.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Jones, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .154 against LHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-140)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Phillies absolutely took it to the D’Backs pitchers last night but I’m not sure that happens again. Kelly has been really strong at home when he avoids HRs. Arizona is always on my short list for stacking purposes and tonight is no different. The only issue is that I do think Suarez is an excellent MLB pitcher and when he gets rolling, he’s shown the ability to be dominant over multiple starts.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Bryson Stott
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Emmanuel Rivera, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs.
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Washington Nationals @ Houston Astros (-260)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Valdez is such a strong play tonight. He’s generally extremely steady, as long as he avoids walks. He really should be attacking a team like WSH, making them beat him. Lane Thomas is ALWAYS in my player pool when they face an LHP. The overall HOU lineup is actually struggling a bit right now and the lineup looks so much weaker without Alvarez. Does this mean we need to consider Josiah Gray?
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against LHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mauricio Dubon, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Reds – Ben Lively
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We should see some more runs in this series but I’m not as enamored with the match-ups as I had been before today. Lively has shown the ability to surprise and Lynch is definitely better than Jordan Lyles is. Add in that CIN isn’t as dangerous against LHPs (especially with Senzel on the IL) and you get a spot where maybe I go underweight on CIN.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs.
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ New York Mets (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Mets – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Last night’s game turned into a slugfest quick, which I wasn’t expecting since it was Severino vs Scherzer. Verlander hasn’t been dominant from a K standpoint but the Yankees overall lineup is pretty trash right now. Cole hasn’t gone off in nearly 2 months but he’s been good. The Mets lineup is weaker without Alonso as well so while last night made me second guess things, I still think this is a pitcher’s duel.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willie Calhoun, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs.
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Cleveland Guardians @ San Diego Padres (-160)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Padres – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Padres bats are starting to heat up and we could be seeing them go on a run to get themselves back into things. We expected greatness from this offense but we haven’t gotten it yet. Civale is not an SP that worries me as he allows plenty of contact. Wacha has been really solid for SD, especially at home, and we know that CLE lacks much for punch at the plate.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ St Louis Cardinals (-145)
Pitchers:
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The best way to attack the Giants is with LHPs and Montgomery did shut them down earlier. With that being said, I kind of think he’s just mediocre in this spot as the Giants are showing dangerous upside. DeSclafani could put up a solid game but I also think the Cardinals have a shot at waking up slightly as Goldy has dominated against DeSclafani in the past.
SF 5-star plays: Austin Slater
4-star plays: Luis Matos, Patrick Bailey
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Jordan Walker, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (-160)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Osvaldo Bido
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Bido is expected to make his debut. Smyly could be solid but I don’t really feel great about him in this game. A 9 total in Wrigley makes me think there’s some positive wind for hitters. Last night’s game saw plenty of action despite us thinking it might get the PPD announcement. Mervis is going to hit an HR this week, so it might as well be tonight, right?
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Matt Mervis
4-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-285)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Dodgers were my top team last night and they started out with 2, 2-run HRs in the first and then shut it down after that. I think they get to Clevinger early as well and I hope they keep their foot on the gas. Kershaw has been so dominant at home this season and I am all about him continuing that tonight as long as he avoids making mistakes to LuBob.
CHW 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Burger, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Will Smith
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Toronto Blue Jays
- San Diego Padres
MLB Dinger of the Day – Vlad Guerrero Jr, Blue Jays
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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