Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Monday, and we get an early showdown game followed by a 7-game main slate. If you’re into Tiers, we get two of those slates again, which is something we haven’t had in a few days. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have a wide range of pitchers for it being just a medium-sized slate, ranging from a few safe bets up to a few gas cans lurking on the backend. Eflin looks to be the all-purpose arm today, though he does not carry the highest KSCORE. That claim belongs to Luzardo and Paxton, and for the bottom end, we have targets such as Kaprielian and Anderson to pick on with our bats (though there are three or four others in similar spots as them, so we could see some fireworks today). As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early game
Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers
We’ll kick things off with our showdown game between the Braves and Tigers. Morton and Alexander will get the start here, and for whatever reason, this is the only game that I don’t have any Vegas insight from at this early hour. Granted, I don’t think we’ll get any surprises here on that front, as I’m sure they’ll have Atlanta as the favorites by a good margin.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Bravs 4 star plays – Riley/Ozuna, Pillar
GPP note – Alexander allows good power to both sides of the plate and above-average wOBA to righties, so it’s business as usual here.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – McKinstry/Short/Baez
GPP note – Overall a tough matchup, but Morton is allowing some wOBA to both sides and decent power to righties, so you can try your luck from that side.
Main slate
Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with the Rockies and Red Sox. Seabold and Paxton will get the start here, and with them, a 10.0 total. The majority of that is going towards the home team, though considering both lineups, I think that’s only fair. You can always try some contrarian stacks with the Rockies, though there may be better spots for that sort of move.
Rockies 4 star plays – Profar/Grichuk
Rockies 3.5 star plays – McMahon, Jones
GPP note – Paxton comes in with a strong strikeout rate but is allowing some power to lefties, so you can always try to take a few small stacks against him with reduced ownership.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers, Yoshida
Red Sox 4 star plays – Verdugo, Turner
GPP note – Seabold is a juicy soft target and is allowing all sorts of contact and power to both sides of the plate. These bats will be popular with such a high implied total, so consider some wrap-around stacks or other approaches to help with that.
San Francisco Giants at St Louis Cardinals
Next up we have the Giants and Cardinals, with Webb and Liberatore on the mound. An 8.0 total, this game looks like it should be a bit more competitive than the previous one, though the pitching advantage does go to the visitors. We’ll see if the bigger St Louis bats can be awake for this one to keep it close.
Giants 4.5 star plays – Estrada, Davis
Giants 4 star plays – Haniger, Slater/Schmitt
GPP note – Liberatore is allowing above-average xwOBA to both sides and solid power to lefties, so consider some stacks here which include left-handed bats.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Donovan/Gorman, Carlson
GPP note – Webb doesn’t have much in the way of a statcast disadvantage against him and carries an above-average strikeout rate, so smaller stacks are probably best here.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Anderson and the Angels will take on Dunning and the Rangers next, as we move up to a healthy 9.5 total. Both offenses are in a plus-matchup here, so I could see this clearing the over without too much problem. While there are plenty of expensive bats here, there are also some decent budget options as well, so don’t forget about them.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani, Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Thaiss, Drury
GPP note – Decent spot against Dunning, who is allowing good power to righties and lots of xwOBA to both sides of the plate. He also carries a low strikeout rate, which should be a big help to these bats.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Semien/Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe /Garcia, Jung
GPP note – Solid spot here, though righties have a significant statcast advantage against Anderson. However, most of these bats are hitting lefties for power, so none of them are off-limits.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals
Next up we have Weaver and the Reds set to take on Greinke and my Royals. Vegas gives this game a 9.0 total with a slight nod to the home team, though that’ll likely just come down to which version of each starter shows up. I could see one side or the other having a decent day, but this one probably isn’t game-stack worthy like the previous game is.
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – India/McLain, Steer/Friedl
GPP note – Greinke is pitching okay, but is still allowing about a home run every start and plenty of power otherwise (mostly to lefties).
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Witt
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez
GPP note – Weaver allows good power to both sides, though righties have had the advantage against him over the past month or so.
Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics
We’ll head out west for our late-night games, starting with the Rays and Athletics. We get an 8.5 total for this one, with most of that going to Tampa Bay. There’s not really a whole lot to say about this one, but it’s kind of neat to see a lineup almost entirely composed of $2k bats
Rays 5 star plays – Franco, Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Paredes/Diaz
GPP note – Traditional splits work best here, as most of the damage Kaprielian is allowing has gone to lefties. However, there are plenty of hot righties here too, so I wouldn’t bail on them by any means.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Ruiz, Noda/Laureano/Brown
GPP note – Not much to love here, aside from some mild power going to lefties.
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up we have Strahm and the Phillies taking on Henry and the Diamondbacks. We get another 10.0 total for this one, but this time it’s split right down the middle. Me personally, I think I would give at least a slight nod to the Phillies, but perhaps Vegas’ crystal ball can see something that I cannot.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Castellanos/Turner, Schwarber/Stott
GPP note – Henry is allowing decent xwOBA and solid power to both sides, so bats of both sides are in play here.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Gurriel/Marte, Walker
GPP note – Same as above, though more of the xwOBA is going to lefties here (power is the same on both sides).
Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners
We’ll wrap up the day with the Marlins and Mariners, as we move down to a slate-low total of 7.5. Luzardo and Miller will get the start here, and while the visitor is coming in looking steady as usual, Miller is coming off of a couple of rough outings. He’ll look to get the rebound here, though that just sounds like a good spot to hedge to me.
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez, Soler/De La Cruz
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Sanchez/Cooper
GPP note – Not much love from Vegas here, though Miller is coming off of two rough starts with a reduced strikeout rate and good xwOBA allowed to both sides (and some decent power to lefties). It wouldn’t be a bad idea to attack or hedge here.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez/France
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Suarez
GPP note – Tough spot for these bats, though they will need to come through if their starter has a third straight rough outing. Righties get the statcast advantage.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.