Happy Memorial Day everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We have a split-slate Monday, with an early 6-game main slate followed by 5 evening games. There’s enough baseball to watch all day long as we grill our favorite meals for dinner, so let’s take a peek at what we have to work with for DFS purposes!
A look at pitchers
We get some decent options to work with today, but also a lot of others that are a bit rough around the edges, so you’ll want to tread a bit lightly today. Eovaldi looks to be a solid target for early cash games, though there are others with higher KSCOREs, such as Bradley and even Mayers, should you want to roll the dice there. For the evening games, we get a couple of returns in Soroka and Blackburn, and what do you know, they’ll be facing one another! As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Main slate
Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with the early/main slate, starting with the Guardians and Orioles. Allen and Wells will get the start here, along with an 8.0 total. We have some potential weather concerns for our lead off game, so be sure to keep an eye on the sky so you don’t put yourself in an early hole in the event that they are unable to play.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Bell
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Naylor
GPP note – Wells can be tough and can rack up the strikeouts, but is also allowing decent power to both sides (though more to lefties). It’s not a bad spot to hedge, should you not be able to pick a side.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman, Mountcastle
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mullins
GPP note – Allen is allowing good xwOBA to both sides, but a lot of power to lefties (much more than to righties), so consider them in your attack today.
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers
Next up we have the Rangers and Tigers, with Eovaldi and Boyd on the hill. We have an 8.5 total for this game, with the visitors being the favorite. This should be a good spot for the hot Eovaldi train to keep on rolling, so we can look to him for our cash games and tournaments alike.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Semien, Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia/Grossman/Lowe
GPP note – Traditional splits tend to work best against Boyd, so favor the righties here.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Greene
GPP note – Eovaldi has been a buzzsaw, so contrarian stacks only.
Kansas City Royals at St Louis Cardinals
Next up we have the I-70 showdown between my Royals and the Cardinals. Staumont/Mayers and Wainwright will start things off, and we move up to a 10.0 total for this one. Without any sort of dominant pitching, this one could see the over pretty easily, so be sure to take a look at some of the cheaper bats here to help with ownership concerns.
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Witt/Pasquantino
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez
GPP note – Wainwright has been soft and is allowing good contact and power to both sides, so you can go after him from either side here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Gorman/Nootbaar, Arenado
GPP note – Mayers can be decent but is also allowing good power to lefties, so you can attack him from that side and even consider a small hedge here in case he gets some more innings and has a decent outing.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs
Bradley and the Rays will take on Stroman and the Cubs next, complete with an 8.0 total. Sort of the opposite to the previous game, we have two pitchers who have plenty of upside in them, and if they’re on their game, perhaps we’ll see a bit of a dud here for the offenses (or at least one of them).
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Lowe, Walls
GPP note – Stroman’s strikeouts are trending downward and he’s allowing a bit more contact and power to lefties, so you can go after him here as if he didn’t have a semi-household name.
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Swanson
GPP note – Bradley does allow some power to righties but his strikeouts are starting to get steady, so smaller stacks and/or some hedging are in order here.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up we have Kauffmann and the Rockies set to take on Nelson and the Diamondbacks. A 9.5 total, this feels like a repeat of the KC/STL game but without as many budget bomber bats. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this total get pushed up ever so slightly as the day goes on.
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Profar, Blackmon/Bryant
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Diaz
GPP note – Nelson looked better in his last start but does still allow plenty of power to both sides of the plate, so attacking him with some of the hotter-running bats here wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll, Walker/Gurriel
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Smith, Perdomo
GPP note – Kauffmann keeps allowing all sorts of hits and power, especially to righties, so you can go after him just as you would if this game were at Coors.
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
We’ll round out the early games with the Twins and Astros, with Gray and France on the mound. An 8.0 total, we may have another repeater here, but this time it mimics the Rays/Cubs game. If Gray is able to contain the Houston offense, or at least limit the damage, I could see this one going under by a few runs.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa, Polanco
Twins 3.5 star plays – Gallo/Kepler
GPP note – There’s a fair amount of upside for both sides of this one, as these bats can have strikeout issues and France has flashed some upside. However, he’s also allowing lots of power to righties, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge some here.
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Bregman/Altuve
Astros 3.5 star plays – Tucker
GPP note – A potentially tough matchup against Gray, but these bats certainly have upside of their own, so this wouldn’t be a terrible place to hedge either.
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Late games
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
We’ll switch over to the late games next, starting with the Pirates and Giants. Hill and DeSclafani will get the start here, and with them, an 8.0 total. I don’t know that there’s anything out of the ordinary here, and I think that smaller stacks on both sides will probably be the answer as opposed to big stacks.
Pirates 4 star plays – McCutchen/Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Suwinski
GPP note – DeSclafani is allowing good contact to both sides with a fair chunk of power to righties, so you can throw a few bats against him here.
Giants 4 star plays – Davis
Giants 3.5 star plays – Conforto, Schmitt
GPP note – Same idea as above, though Hill does offer more strikeout upside. If you go here, consider hedging a little.
Atlanta Braves at Oakland Athletics
Soroka and the Braves will take on Balckburn and the Athletics next, as we move up to a 9.0 total. You may have noticed that you haven’t heard these two names in a while, and as luck would have it, they will make their return against one another. It’ll be interesting to see who comes out on top, but considering the matchup, it’ll probably be Soroka.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Riley, Ozuna
GPP note – We won’t know where Blackburn will be just yet, but these guys can bash righties just fine, so go after him here in the event that they give him a nasty “welcome back” present.
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Perez
GPP note – Same idea as above, though the bat selection is much more limited here.
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
Canning and the Angels will take on Kopech and the White Sox next, and Vegas has this one set at an 8.5 total. The home team is the slight favorite here, though not by a whole heck of a lot, so hopefully it will be competitive. We’ll see if the Angels’ big guns can help make the underdog the victor here today.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Renfroe
GPP note – Kopech has been on a strikeout frenzy lately, so you could always hedge some here in case he has another big outing. Otherwise, he does allow good power to righties, so they’re in play along with Ohtani.
White Sox 4.5 star plays – Robert/Anderson
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Sheets, Benintendi
GPP note – Canning had himself a bit of a rebound game, but overall is still allowing lots of contact and power to both sides, so the righties are good to go here.
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll head out west for our final two games, the first between the Nationals and Dodgers. Williams and Miller will get the start here, and they have an 8.5 total as of early this morning. The home team is favored quite heavily, though I suppose that shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Their bats will be popular, so you’ll have to find ways to get sneaky here or with your secondary stacks.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Candelario/Meneses/Thomas, Abrams
GPP note – Miller looked decent in his debut and I’m not sure that this offense will do a whole lot better against him, so smaller stacks may be the answer.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman, Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Martinez/Smith
GPP note – Williams allows plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so you can take just about any bat you desire against him.
New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners
We’ll round out this Memorial Day with the Yankees and Mariners, with German and Miller on the mound. An 8.0 total, the home team is favored here again, though not by quite as much. Still, I think they can take this game, especially if Miller continues to do what he’s been doing. If German keeps doing what he’s been doing, perhaps he’ll get kicked out after a few innings again (yes, I had to go there).
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge, Rizzo
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Torres, Volpe
GPP note – Miller has been stingy and hasn’t really shown his weakness yet, so smaller stacks could be more useful than larger ones.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – France, Faleigh
GPP note – German allows more power to righties than he does to lefties, so keep some of them (outside of just Rodriguez) in mind.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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