Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s a split-slate Wednesday, and we have a handful of early games followed by an 8-game main slate. We’ll have showdowns, a small slate, and a medium slate, so there’s something for everybody aside from a large slate (but don’t worry, you’ll get one of those soon enough). There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have a nice range of options on all the slates today, so navigating cash games should be a simple task. Ryan looks to be one of the main attractions for the early games, so he should work for that (and perhaps some tournament play as well). Gallen isn’t too far behind, though he doesn’t get quite as much love from Vegas. For the main slate, Miller looks to be in a solid spot, so that would be a good place to start for cash games. Senga and Paxton offer some attractive strikeout upside, as well as a few others, so there will be plenty of options to consider. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Rangers and Pirates. Perez and Oviedo will get the start here, and with them, a 9.0 total. Both of these offenses are in a good spot, so I think there’s a good chance of us seeing the over here. Some of these bats you’ll have to pay for, but there are plenty of cheap ones to choose from, too.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager, Semien
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe
GPP note – Solid spot for these bats, especially the lefties, so stacks of any size are in play here.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – Reynolds, McCutchen
Pirates 4 star plays -Santana/Joe
GPP note – Good spot for these bats too, as Perez is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate with the same below-average strikeout rate that Oviedo has.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
Next up we’ll have the Diamondbacks and Phillies, with Gallen and Suarez as the starters. Gallen will look to bounce back from his outing against the Pirates that didn’t go to plan, as Suarez will look to get something going for his 2023 campaign. There are plenty of good bats to get in the way of both of them, so this could be an interesting one to watch.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Walker/Gurriel
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte
GPP note – Suarez can grab some strikeouts, but he can also give up plenty of power, so he’s not a bad budget SP2 hedge target today.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper
GPP note – Tough spot, but you can always try your luck with some stacks and/or hedging.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
Kopech and the White Sox will take on Quantrill and the Guardians next, and Vegas is giving this one an 8.0 total. Like the first game, both of these teams are in a good spot and could do some big damage in a hurry, so I’m a little surprised that the total is so low, even if Robert has to sit this one out.
White Sox 4.5 star plays – Anderson
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi, Moncada, Vaughn
GPP note – Another decent spot, Quantrill is allowing good xwOBA to righties, so you can grab some stacks here despite the low total.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez/Bell
Guardians 4 star plays – Naylor
GPP note – Kopech is allowing good contact and power to righties too, so you can try some reverse splits here as well.
San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins
The Giants and Twins are up next, who will start DeSclafani and Ryan. A 7.5 total, this will be the lowest on the slate, though the seems fair considering we have good pitching here. Big stacks may not be in flavor here, but some of the bats look like they could be useful.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Davis/Conforto, Yastrzemski
GPP note – A tough spot for these bats, so stack at your own risk.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Krilloff, Gallo
GPP note – DeSclafani looks like he may be rebounding a but, but has been allowing some power to righties, so you can take some of those bats against him.
Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
Next up we have Bielak and the Astros set to take on Houser and the Brewers. A 9.0 total, Vegas has this one split right down the middle with 4.5 runs for each team. Though not quite as good of a spot as a couple of the previous games, both offenses are in a good enough spot to set off some fireworks, though there are some luxury bats here; Alvarez costs more than some of the pitchers today!
Astros 4.5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman
GPP note – Houser has allowed plenty of contact and power to righties, but not much to lefties, so going a little heavier on righties here might not be a terrible idea.
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Tellez
GPP note – Bielak showed some upside against an inferior offense, but aside from that has been allowing equally solid contact and power to both sides of the plate. You could always hedge here for a budget SP2 in case he has another big outing, though.
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St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
We’ll head to the game with the highest total on this slate – a whopping 10.5 – as the Cardinals and Reds will face off. Matz and Lively will get the start here, and both had better be on their A-game if they want to avoid getting shelled. This game will see plenty of ownership, so if you go here, you may need to find ways to get creative here or with your secondary/supplemental stacks.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado/Gorman
GPP note – Like Bielak, Lively has flashed some upside, so he might not be a bad hedge target for another budget SP2 today, as there’s a good chance one side of this one is bound to go off here.
Reds 4.5 star plays – India
Reds 4 star plays – Steer
GPP note – A healthy total in a good spot for the lefties, these bats are worth stacking too.
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll round out the early games with the Blue Jays and Rays, with Kikuchi and McClanahan on the mound. An 8.0 total, Vegas likes the home team here, and while that does seem fair, I think a lot of it will depend on which Kikuchi will show up. He’s got a knack for throwing a gem or getting shelled into oblivion, without a whole lot in between.
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Bichette/Merrifield
GPP note – Tough spot for these bats, but McClanahan does allow moderate power to righties on occasion, so you can try some small or medium-sized contrarian stacks here.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena, Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz, Walls/Paredes
GPP note – You never know what you’ll get with Kikuchi, so if you hedge anywhere today, do it here. I wouldn’t even bother with anything less than full stacks against him – go big and hope for an implosion.
Main slate
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Padres and Nationals. Weathers and Williams will get the start here, along with a 9.5 total. Both starters are no stranger to allowing some big hits, so both offenses are in a decent spot to do some damage here. The stars are certainly worth a look, but so are the budget options.
Padre 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Bogaerts, Odor
GPP note – Though these bats are a bit lukewarm against righties as of late, Williams is allowing plenty of power to both sides of the plate, so this could be a good spot to them to pounce.
Nationals 4 star plays – Thomas
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses, Candelario
GPP note – Weathers is allowing plenty of juicy contact and power to righties, so be sure to take a few shots against him here.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Next up we have the Orioles and Yankees, with Wells and Cortes on the mound. An 8.5 total, Vegas has New York as the favorites, though I could see Baltimore sneaking out a win here. Either way, be sure to keep an eye on the skies, as there are some weather concerns to be aware of.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Mountcastle/Rutschman, Mullins
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Hays
GPP note – Cortes is allowing almost the exact same statcast numbers to lefties and righties alike, which includes plenty of power. This offense doesn’t have the best total, but small and medium-sized stacks are squarely in play here.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo, Volpe
GPP note – Wells allows some decent power to both sides on occasion, but he’s no pushover and may limit the ceiling of this offense if he’s on his game.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
The Dodgers and Braves are up next, with Gonsolin and Elder as the starters. This game sports a healthy 9.5 total and is evenly split right down the middle. There is no shortage of big bats in this one, though both starters have looked pretty steady, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one go the way of the under.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman, Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez
GPP note – Elder is allowing modest power to lefties, but like Wells, can certainly hold his own and shouldn’t be looked at as a pushover.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson, Ozuna
GPP note – Gonsolin looks to have found his groove, at least for now, so smaller or medium-sized stacks may work best here.
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New York Mets at Chicago Cubs
Our next game has the lowest total of the day – a very sad looking 6.5. Senga and Stroman will get the start, and while both are certainly capable of solid outings, I can’t help but think that Vegas is being a little too conservative here. I suppose we’ll see how it plays out, but I get the feeling that this total will move up some today.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
Mets 3.5 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil, Alvarez
GPP note – Stroman is always good for at least a few strikeouts, but has started to allow some power in recent starts. Most of it seems to go to lefties, but don’t neglect the power righties here.
Cubs 4 star plays – Swanson, Suzuki
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Happ, Suzuki
GPP note – Senga continues to find momentum and showed how dangerous he can be in his last start, so if you go here, be sure to hedge.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Boyd and the Tigers will take on Greinke and my Royals next, and we have a 9.0 total for this one. KC is only very slightly favored here, and I would have to agree with it being a very close (albeit lower scoring than what they’re calling for) game. While I do think that some modest stacks should be viable, I don’t know that these two starters are in danger of getting shelled.
Tigers 4 star plays – Greene
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baez, Baddoo/Ibanez/Maton
GPP note – Greinke has been doing a better job of not getting blown up, but is still allowing some homers, so don’t be afraid to try some one-offs or mini-stacks against him.
Royals 4.5 star plays – Perez/Witt
Royals 3.5 star plays – Pasquantino, Melendez
GPP note – Boyd allows some good power to righties, so this could be a good spot for at least some medium-sized stacks.
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Our Coors game is up next, this one featuring the Marlins and Rockies.Alcantara and Kauffmann will get the start, and Vegas is giving them an 11.0 total. It’s business as usual here, though Alcantara makes an interesting hedge option. The curveball for this one is the weather, so keep an eye on that to see if you need to dodge this ballgame.
Marlins 5 star plays – Soler, Arraez
Marlins 4 star plays – De La Cruz
GPP note – Kauffmann hasn’t shown dominant stuff in any of his away appearances, so I don’t know that he’s going to have a whole lot for his first Coors start.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon/Profar
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant/Diaz
GPP note – Alcantara isn’t a bad hedge target, as he does have some upside in him, but we’ll see how Coors treats him today. That approach aside, lefties have the power advantage against him.
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our final two games, starting with the Red Sox and Angels. Paxton and Anderson will get the start, along with a 9.5 total. Vegas has this one split down the middle, and all things considered, I find their position a bit interesting. If Paxton can keep doing what he’s doing, I don’t know that the Angels will keep up, aside from whatever Trout and Ohtani will do.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Turner/Yoshida
GPP note – Anderson allows plenty of power to both sides and generally has a low strikeout rate, but does have the occasional big game, making him an option as a budget SP2 hedge arm.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Trout, Ohtani
Angels 3.5 star plays – Renfroe
GPP note – Paxton has been solid in his first couple of starts, but has allowed one homer in each of them. Big stacks may not be the answer, but a handful of bats against him could be.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
We’ll wrap up the day with the Athletics and Mariners, with Waldichuk and Miller on the hill. This 8.0 total mostly goes to the home team, as Oakland gets a very low sub-3.0 total against Miller and co. I suppose that’s to be expected, so expect to see him as a chalky option tonight (and probably one you should look at for cash games).
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Rooker
GPP note – Doesn’t look good for these bats, so use with caution.
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – France/Raleigh, Kelenic/Suarez
GPP note – The exact opposite for these bats, Waldichuk allows all sorts of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so you can go after him however you see fit.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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