Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 5/23:
May 22, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) celebrates after hitting a grand slam home run during the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Spencer Strider
- Gerrit Cole
- Brayan Bello
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
San Diego Padres (-150) @ Washington Nationals (+125)
Rundown:
We’ll kick the day off with Yu Darvish and the Padres heading into Washington to take on the Nationals. This spot is going to look really nice for Darvish as an SP option, he had a down game last time out against the Royals but had at least 18.1 DraftKings points in five of his previous six starts. He has a 27.2% strikeout rate on the season and is a nice option in all formats. The Nationals will send MacKenzie Gore to the mound in a revenge game against his old team. He’s been pretty solid and this Padres lineup will be without Manny Machado for the coming future, he has a 29.0% strikeout rate and makes plenty of sense as a mid-range option.
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: I’ll have some interest in Gore, but the Padres are in play as a secondary stack at the very least.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Lane Thomas
GPP Note: I like Darvish quite a bit in this spot.
Baltimore Orioles (+147) @ New York Yankees (-178)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Starting with the Orioles, they’ll send Kyle Bradish to the mound in a tough matchup against this Yankees lineup in a small ballpark. Bradish does have back-to-back quality starts, so the production has been there but I still don’t think I can get to him on this slate. I do like getting to Mr. Gerrit Cole on the other side of this one, however. Cole is right up there as one of the top options on the slate due to his ceiling and floor, he had a nice bounce-back game last time out. He has a 26.8% strikeout rate on the season and I expect that to continue to climb.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: I like the ballpark, but I don’t really want to stack against Gerrit Cole.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Gleyber Torress, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: The Yankees look like a solid secondary stack.
Los Angeles Dodgers (+168) @ Atlanta Braves (-200)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Bobby Miller will take the mound for the Dodgers in his MLB debut in this one and gets a tough draw against a really good Braves lineup on the road. He’s a top prospect in the Dodgers’ organization, he’s struggled a bit this season in a small sample and had a bit of an up-and-down year last season… that said, the strikeout stuff has been over 30% in his last two seasons in the minors. The raw talent is probably there but I’ll wait for a better spot to attack him. The Braves will start Spencer Strider who is going to look like a top SP option on the slate. He’s right up there with Cole as having one of the better upsides in the league. He has an elite 41.5% strikeout rate and this Dodgers lineup doesn’t exactly scare me off of him.
LAD 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Just one-offs, I don’t want to stack against Strider.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley
4-star plays: Sean Murphy, Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna, Orlando Arcia
GPP Note: The Braves are a top stack for me, I like attacking Miller making his debut.
Detroit Tigers (-146) @ Kansas City Royals (+124)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound for the Tigers and is going to look like a solid option in all formats. He had a rough go of it last time out but has at least 27 DraftKings points in three of his four previous games. He has a 24.4% strikeout rate and just a 2.06 ERA on the season, this is a nice matchup as well. The Royals will use Daniel Lynch in his first game back from the IL, I like the matchup but not enough to risk a sub-par pitcher who is likely on a pitch limit.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Eric Haase
GPP Note: MME sprinkle, I have a hard time stacking this team… but the implied total is there.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Rodriguez than any of this Royals team.
New York Mets (-110) @ Chicago Cubs (-110)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Kodai Senga will get the ball for the Mets after a massive bounce-back game against the Rays. He struck out 12 in a quality start in that game and will look to carry that over in this one. The Cubs lineup doesn’t scare me outside of the hottest hitter in the league in Christopher Morel? They have a 23.4% strikeout rate as a whole, I can see getting to some Senga here. Speaking of the Cubs, they’ll send Drew Smyly to the mound who has been sneaky good as of late, he’s not going to blow you away with production, but he’s been solid. He’s not a priority by any means, but a fine option nonetheless.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte, Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: There are some lefty mashers in this lineup, no issue getting to them in this one as a stack.
CHC 5-star plays: Christopher Morel
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Senga than this Cubs stack.
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Houston Astros (-131) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+110)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
J.P. France will get the start for the Astros as they stick around in Milwaukee. He’s coming off of a terrible start against the Cubs last time out but had a good first two starts to the season. He’s flashed some strikeout stuff in the minors but we haven’t seen it in the majors quite yet, but that could change today as the Brewers strike out at a 25% rate on the season. Speaking of the Brewers, they’ll send Colin Rea to the mound who has come crashing down to Earth over his last two starts and gets a tough matchup here, he’s not a guy I’ll have much interest in.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: The Astros are going to look great against a below-average pitcher.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, William Contreras
GPP Note: The Brewers are a solid secondary stack team, don’t hate them as a full stack with some of the value in their lineup as well if you’re going to double spend up at SP.
San Franciso Giants (+130) @ Minnesota Twins (-155)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Alex Cobb will take the mound for the Giants and has been sneaky great this season outside of his last start against the Phillies. He has at least 21.1 DraftKings points in three of his previous four, that said, I’m not sure I want to fall in love with him against this Twins team. I think he’s a fine option, but not a priority by any means. Speaking of the Twins, they’ll start Sonny Gray who had a bad outing last time out as well and has had games where his command has struggled. That said, he’s been great this season with a 1.64 ERA and a 29.6% strikeout rate if you can’t quite get up to guys like Cole and Strider.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t really want to target hitting against Gray right now.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Edouard Julien, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: I like the Twins as a mini-stack at the very least.
Miami Marlins (-123) @ Colorado Rockies (+104)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Eury Perez will get the start for the Marlins and is a young pitcher that I really like, he’s a top prospect in all of baseball… but, he obviously hasn’t pitched in Coors Field yet. I do think there is some leverage to be had if you want to go to him at a cheap price tag. He’s looked great in his first two starts and the Rockies don’t exactly have a killer lineup… I think he’s very interesting in GPPs at the very least. The Rockies will start Austin Gomber, who I have zero interest in. The Marlins are going to look like a nice stack yet again here having the top implied run total on the slate.
MIA 5-star plays: Jorge Soler, Bryan De La Cruz
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Garrett Cooper, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: The Marlins are a top stack on the slate for me.
COL 5-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Elias Diaz, Ryan McMahon, Ezequiel Tovar
GPP Note: Although I like Perez as a GPP option, it’s hard to ignore these Colorado bats.
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Boston Red Sox (-115) @ Los Angeles Angels (-105)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Brayan Bello will start for the Red Sox as they head into Los Angeles and has a really interesting price tag, particularly on DraftKings where you can use him as an SP2. He’s been much better as of late with at least 17.1 DraftKings points in four straight games, even with five walks last time out. He’s gone over 100 pitches in back-to-back games as well, so the leash has been lengthened, it’s a tougher matchup but I don’t mind him as a salary-saver SP2. The Angels will send Griffin Canning to the mound, he’s been pretty terrible this season, so I would just take the savings on Bello.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran
4-star plays: Masatak Yoshida, Justin Turner
GPP Note: I think the Red Sox look pretty good against Canning here.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: If Bello can navigate the superstars in this lineup, I think I have more interest in him than this stack shockingly enough.
Oakland Athletics (+182) @ Seattle Mariners (-225)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll round out the slate with Luis Medina heading into Seattle to take on the Mariners. I was all over the Mariners last night and is going to be a team I go right back to here, I love stacking against the A’s pitching staff due to how bad this bullpen is and Medina is going to be no different. The Mariners will send Marco Gonzales to the mound, he’s not really a guy I have a ton of interest in but if you’re in that Bello range and don’t want to take the risk, the matchup is definitely better for Gonzales.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Esteury Ruiz, Ramon Laureano, Brent Rooker
GPP Note: More of a one-off team, but do have some speed upside at the top of that lineup.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: J.P. Crawford, Ty France, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: I like going right back to the well with the Mariners here.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Miami Marlins
- Seattle Mariners
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
May 22, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) celebrates after hitting a grand slam home run during the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports