Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Monday, and it’s a split-slate sort of a day. We’ll have five early games followed by a seven-game main slate. Those of you who really enjoy smaller slates, today is your day!
A look at pitchers
We get a variety of options today, and fortunately there are interesting ones all day long. For basic cash games, Wheeler looks to be a solid option for the early games. Castillo takes that role for the main slate, in what looks to be about the lowest total I can recall seeing in recent memory. Aside from them, for tournament considerations we have several others with solid KSCOREs, such as Montgomery for the early games and Javier or Morton on the main slate. There’s another I’ll get to later, who may be the hedge play of the day. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
We’ll kick things off with the White Sox and Guardians, with Scholtens and Gaddis on the mound. A 9.0 total, this is a decent way to start the day, though if you want to play this game on a slate with the others, you’ll have to do so on FanDuel. Or, if you like the showdowns like I do, you still have that option over on DraftKings.
White Sox 4.5 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Anderson, Benintendi
GPP note – Picking on Gaddis is never a bad move, and he allows equally solid wOBA to both sides of the plate (though more power to lefties, so be sure to play any that get a start).
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez, Bell
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Naylor
GPP note – Scholtens is coming up from the minors to get his first start here, so consider hedging in case he goes to the extreme one way or the other.
Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up we have the Rangers and Pirates, with Dunning and Ortiz on the hill. Another 9.0 total, Vegas likes the visitors here, and I’d have to agree with them. However, judging by his salary, I do think that Dunning is a little under-appreciated here. All things considered, I could see this one going under by a couple of runs or so.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Semien/Seager
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe, Taveras
GPP note – Good spot here and several of these guys are hitting righties for power, so don’t worry about hand matchup too much.
Pirates 4 star plays – McCutchen, Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Santana
GPP note – Dunning has been solid lately and is pitching well above his DK salary, so don’t blindly stack against him just because he’s cheap.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
Henry and the Diamondbacks will take on Wheeler and the Phillies next, and we get an 8.5 total for this one. The Phillies are the favorites here, which should be no surprise with Wheeler on the mound, who represents one of our strong cash game options today. With his upside, he may also be the one you need in tournaments, so we may just have to pay up on this slate. Either way, I get the feeling this one will lean just a little on the under side, so we’ll see how that goes.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Carroll, Walker
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Gurriel
GPP note – Tough matchup against Wheeler, though he does allow some xwOBA/ISO to lefties and quite a few of these bats are hitting righties well. Don’t be afraid to hedge here.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Realmuto/Castellanos/Turner, Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Bohm
GPP note – Big total from Vegas, so expect some big ownership as well. It is a good spot though, especially for the righties.
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Moving right along, our next matchup will be between the Cardinals and Reds. Montgomery and Williamson get the start here, and Vegas is giving this one a slate-best 10.0 total. Both of these pitchers are certainly no stranger to getting hit around some this season, but both have also showed signs of a decent ceiling with the ability to slow down an offense for 5-6 innings. It will be interesting to see if they’re up for the task today, because if they are, that could certainly turn this juicy looking game into a dud. If not, we could see a big score here, so perhaps hedging with these two as mid-ranged SP2s wouldn’t be a terrible idea in tournaments?
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Nootbaar
GPP note – The biggest total and best spot on this slate, pretty much every bat will be in play here, so be sure to try some wrap-around stacks or other such approaches to help with ownership.
Reds 4 star plays – India
Reds 3.5 star plays – Senzel/Steer
GPP note – The righties are in a decent spot here against Montgomery, so don’t forget to grab pieces of this offense too.
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll wrap up the early games with the Blue Jays and Rays, with Bassitt and Kelley/Fleming to start things off. An 8.5 total, this game looks a bit unassuming, so we’ll see if these pitchers can keep these potent offenses in check. It won’t take but a few slipups for either one of them to go bonkers, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one go the over. Hopefully this “low” total will help keep their ownership down!
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Chapman/Merrifield/Bichette
GPP note – Fleming is allowing good xwOBA to righties and has a very low strikeout rate, so don’t be turned off by this relatively low total.
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 3.5 star plays – Lowe/Lowe, Walls
GPP note – Bassitt has been tough and is only allowing modest xwOBA to lefties (no real power to either side). However, these bats are hitting righties well, so hedging here wouldn’t be a bad idea.
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Main slate
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Dodgers and Braves. A 9.5 total, this looks like a game that the Braves can really take over (and Vegas looks to agree with that notion), but there are some weather concerns at hand. Be sure to keep an eye on the skies for this one, as there are plenty of good looking bats here, and Morton offers enough upside to be considered for tournament use.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Martinez/Smith
GPP note – Similar idea to what the Rays have, though Morton is allowing decent contact and power to lefties. Not a bad spot to hedge considering his strikeout rate which is well above average.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson, Murphy/Riley
GPP note – Righties have a power advantage against Stone, so be sure you’re taking some of the power righties here.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Next up we’ll have Lorenzen and the Tigers taking on Singer and my Royals. Vegas gives this one an 8.5 total with a slight nod to the home team. It really makes my day to see KC favored, which probably means that Signer is going to get pummeled, so don’t be afraid to take a few of those cheap bats. As for KC, they’re in a decent spot, so a few of them are worth a look as well.
Tigers 4.5 star plays – Baez/Greene
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Ibanez/Haase
GPP note – This offense isn’t the most fun to stack, but Singer is allowing a ton of solid contact and power to both sides of the plate, so stacks of any size are in play here.
Royals 4.5 star plays – Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Pasquantino/Witt/Melendez
GPP note – Lorenzen allows lots of contact and some decent power to both sides, so stacks here are in play too.
Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
Javier and the Astros will take on Burnes and the Brewers next, as we move down to a 7.5 total. Vegas has this one split down the middle, and seeing the starters we have here, I could see this one being a pitcher’s duel for a while. As a fan I love those types of games, but obviously that puts a damper on the bats for fantasy purposes. However, that would make these pitchers quite valuable, so perhaps stacking both of them may pay off in tournaments.
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 3.5 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
GPP note – Burnes can be tough, so this wouldn’t be a bad place to hedge. Righties have a slight xwOBA advantage.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Tellez/Adames
GPP note – Basically the same as above, including the righties having the statcast advantage.
San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins
Next up we have the Giants and Twins, with Brebbia and Ober on the mound. We get a 9.0 total for this one, with a moderate nod to the home team. Nothing against him, but I think Brebbia may have set an MLB record for being the most expensive starting pitcher to never see two full innings of action in any start in a season. Me talking smack aside, be very careful with him, and if you place any bets with him in mind, perhaps do it where you’re wanting him to be done sooner than later. As for Ober, he does have the sort of upside that is good for a mid-ranged pitcher, so consider him for standard fantasy use today.
Giants 4 star plays – Estrada, Yastrzemski
Giants 3.5 star plays – Conforto
GPP note – A so-so spot, Ober allows some power to lefties, so that would be the best way to go here.
Twins 4 star plays – Correa/Buxton, Gallo
Twins 3.5 star plays – Farmer
GPP note – Same idea as above, though it’s the righties that have the slightly better matchup here. Taking a bunch of them with Gallo sounds like a good way to go.
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Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
We’ll head to our Coors game next, this one between the Marlins and Rockies. An 11.5 total, we have the standard Coors stuff in play here: bats are (mostly) expensive, the starters are fairly cheap, and we’ll see all sorts of ownership here. However, I do think that Cabrera is an interesting option today, and I wouldn’t be opposed to taking some shots with him. The Coors factor aside, he boasts the second-best KSCORE on the day, and if he can solve the puzzle of pitching here, perhaps he can flip the script. I don’t feel as good about Anderson, but I suppose he’s cheap enough to gamble with if you’re really wanting to save some salary.
Marlins 5 star plays – Arraez/Soler
Marlins 4 star plays – De La Cruz
GPP note – It’s Coors, so not much needs to be said here. I wouldn’t worry hand matchup.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon/Bryant
Rockies 4 star plays – Profar
GPP note – Cabrera is coming into this game allowing good power to both sides but also with a solid strikeout rate. Pitching way up at Coors is different, but in the event that he can handle it, hedging here wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our final two games, starting with the Red Sox and Angels. Houck and Barria will get the start here, along with a 9.5 total. This one is split down the middle, and is the highest total that isn’t Coors or doesn’t have weather issues. That could make this one a good pivot option to those other games, but don’t expect these two to completely fly under the radar. The cheap bats may do that though, so consider digging in a little with them and see if you find anything useful.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida/Verdugo, Duran, Turner
GPP note – Silseth isn’t allowing a ton of power, but he is allowing a lot of xwOBA to lefties, so go after him here in case that translates into some big power.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Renfroe
GPP note – Houck has been strict to righties but soft to lefties, so traditional splits (and Trout) are probably the best way to go here.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
We’ll wrap up the day with the Athletics and Mariners, with Muller and Castillo as the starters. This 7.5 total looks pretty wimpy at first, but when you consider that one team is only given one-third of that total, it starts to look pretty good again. The Mariners are heavy favorites here, with a moneyline better than any other I’ve seen in quite some time. That puts Castillo in play as a main cash game consideration, and he’s not overly expensive, either. His offense is in an equally juicy spot, as Muller just can’t seem to get things going the other way or stop allowing a home run every start. Will this be the 5th start in a row that he’ll allow one? Yeah, probably.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Rooker
GPP note – Quite the low Vegas total, so only go here if you’re really trying to get funky in this Coors slate.
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Framce/Suarez, Pollock/Murphy
GPP note – This is a great spot, as Muller is allowing all sorts of solid contact and power to both sides of the plate. They make a good pivot and/or secondary stack to any other offense. Pretty much everybody is in play here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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