Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Thursday, so we get our short day of the week today. We’ll have four early games grouped together, followed by a couple of evening games to hold us over until tomorrow’s big main slate. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
There are quite a few rough spots on this short day, which makes things all the more difficult since we not only have a lower number of options, but very few of them stand out as great options. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in, especially on days like today.
Early games
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll start things off with the Angels and Orioles, with Anderson and Wells on the mound. Right off the bat we get one of the higher totals on the day at a 9.0, and Vegas likes both squads to do a moderate amount of damage here. I think that they can over-achieve here, especially if Wells has any hiccups, so perhaps this will be a good source of some fantasy goodness (though you will have to pay for much of it).
Angels 4.5 star plays – Ohtani, Trout
Angels 3.5 star plays – Renfroe/Drury
GPP note – Wells can hold his own and grab a solid chunk of strikeouts, but is also allowing decent power to both sides of the plate. It’s a good spot to hedge.
Orioles 5 star plays – Mullins
Orioles 4 star plays – Rutschman/Mateo, Santander
GPP note – This won’t be a sneaky spot, as it’s perhaps the best matchup on the slate, so you will want to combat the chalk by taking wrap-around stacks or finding other ways to be different.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Next up we have the Nationals and Marlins, with Williams and Perez as the starters. We move down to an 8.0 total, which is fair, but I get the feeling this game is going to be a little more one-sided than what meets the eye. We’ll see how it goes, but I think the home team is going to have a good game here.
Nationals 4 star plays – Thomas
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Smith
GPP note – The lowest total on the slate doesn’t instill a bunch of confidence in stacking, though you could hedge in the event Perez doesn’t live up to the hype.
Marlins 4.5 star plays – Chisholm, Arraez
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Soler/Cooper
GPP note – Williams is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate with a strikeout rate that’s a little below average, so this could be a spot for these guys to have a bit more fun than what Vegas is eluding to.
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets
Bradley and the Rays will take on Megill and the Mets next, and Vegas is giving this one an 8.5 total. There’s a lot of firepower and potential upside in this one, including Bradley, so despite the modest total for each squad, I expect there to be plenty of ownership coming from this one. It would be a good idea to keep your eye on ownership projections to see if anybody looks to be sneaking under the radar.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena, Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe
GPP note – Megill is allowing plenty of contact and power to righties, so don’t be afraid to go a little heavier with them in this spot.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
Mets 3.5 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – It’s not a great spot, though Bradley does allow some power to righties.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
The Guardians and White Sox will round out the early games, and we’ll have Allen facing Cease for this one. Another 8.5 total, this one isn’t split down the middle like our previous game, though I do get the feeling we’ll see the under here. However, I will agree with Vegas in that I think most of the damage will be done by the home team.
Guardians 4 star plays – Bell
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Naylor
GPP note – Cease has plenty of strikeout upside and isn’t somebody most would normally stack against, but he is allowing good contact and power to both sides. Taking a few contrarian stacks or hedging here wouldn’t be the worst thing you could do today.
White Sox 4.5 star plays – Robert/Anderson
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Vaughn
GPP note – Allen’s strikeouts are a little down and the hits allowed are a little up over his last two starts, so take some shots here in case that trend continues.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Late games
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
The first of our late games will be between the Yankees and Blue Jays, and we’ll have Cortes and Berrios on the hill. A 9.0 total, these offenses are certainly no stranger to putting up some big numbers (especially against one another), so I expect to see some fireworks here just like everybody else does.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge, Rizzo
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Torres, Volpe
GPP note – Berrios allows moderate xwOBA to both sides and some power to lefties, so you can take bats from either side against him here.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Chapman/Varsho, Merrifield
GPP note – There’s plenty of power upside here and Cortes’ struggles continues, so you can go with stacks of any size from either side of the plate here.
Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals
We’ll wrap up this short day with the Dodgers and Cardinals, with Urias and Wainwright leading the charge. Another 9.0 total, Vegas is giving a slight nod to the visitors here, though I can’t help but feel like they should be slightly more favored in this matchup. Perhaps Wainwright will find something deep down and surprise us all?
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez, Muncy/Smith, Hayward
GPP note – Wainwright doesn’t look to have much that will slow down this offense, so you can go after him from any angle. They’ll be popular, so you may need to try wrap-around stacks or other approaches to battle their ownership numbers.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt, Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Edman/Nootbaar/Knizer
GPP note – Another good spot on the day to hedge, there’s plenty of upside on either side of this one. For these bats, Urias is allowing above-average power to both sides of the plate and has several games where he’s allowed two homers.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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